Bracketology (Week of Feb. 8th)

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#101      
I can't believe that someone has us as a 4 seed as of 2/10. Most have us as a 2 and couple of 3s and a few 1s. I see us right now as a 2 possibly a 1 but a 4. No way
 
#102      
There's been some talk about wanting to finish top 6, in order to avoid Baylor and Gonzaga.

If the other two 1-seeds are B10 (e.g. Michigan and Ohio State), does that make it more likely that the committee would stick us with Baylor or Gonzaga, even if we're one of the top two 2-seeds?
 
#103      
BU:1 Trash cans:0
Chicago
There's been some talk about wanting to finish top 6, in order to avoid Baylor and Gonzaga.

If the other two 1-seeds are B10 (e.g. Michigan and Ohio State), does that make it more likely that the committee would stick us with Baylor or Gonzaga, even if we're one of the top two 2-seeds?
I think that's correct.

  • Each of the top four teams selected from a conference shall be placed in different regions if they are seeded on the first four lines.


Assuming Baylor and Gonzaga stay #1 and #2, we want to be 3-6, unless there are two B1G teams ahead of us. That would force us back into Baylor or Gonzaga's bracket.
 
#104      
There's been some talk about wanting to finish top 6, in order to avoid Baylor and Gonzaga.

If the other two 1-seeds are B10 (e.g. Michigan and Ohio State), does that make it more likely that the committee would stick us with Baylor or Gonzaga, even if we're one of the top two 2-seeds

If Michigan and tOSU are ahead of us, that means we probably lost to OSU the last game of the season. If that's the case, we probably don't deserve 5-6. If we beat them, they won't be a 1 seed and we might be.

Also, good chance Michigan falls down unless they absolutely kill it coming out of quarantine.
 
#105      
If Michigan and tOSU are ahead of us, that means we probably lost to OSU the last game of the season. If that's the case, we probably don't deserve 5-6. If we beat them, they won't be a 1 seed and we might be.

In a scenario where we win all remaining regular season games, except @OSU, you think it unlikely that we end up as one of the top-two 2-seeds?

What if we also do well in the conference tournament?
What if the Michigan game gets rescheduled and we win, but Michigan otherwise does well enough to hang on to the crown and a 1-seed?

There's probably also scenarios where we win @OSU, but still end up as a top-two 2-seed, with Michigan and OSU still 1-seeds, considering that OSU and Michigan still play one another, and each could win the conference tournament.
 
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#107      
If Michigan and tOSU are ahead of us, that means we probably lost to OSU the last game of the season. If that's the case, we probably don't deserve 5-6. If we beat them, they won't be a 1 seed and we might be.

Also, good chance Michigan falls down unless they absolutely kill it coming out of quarantine.
If we lose both and lose to one of them in the BTT, I can see the committee dropping to a three seed unless people on the three line now also falter. But I still see us a 2 even though we were third in the conference and lose either in the semis or final.
 
#111      
Winged Warrior
If the bar is 7 days of clean testing, we are almost certain to see multiple outbreaks. The CDC site says that the odds of a person being unknowingly infected after 7 days of negative tests is 5-12%. After 9 days of negative tests, the number drops to ~1%. After 10 days, it looks like ~0.1%.

If there are 68 teams and ~20 people/team, then there are 1400+ people involved.
Assuming a _7_ day quarantine, the odds of at least one incident are ~100%.
Assuming a _9_ day quarantine, there is a 99.9999994% chance that there will be at least one incident.
Assuming a _10_ day quarantine, there is a 75% chance that there will be at least one incident.

This calculation assumes that players start in an unknown state. Most teams are taking enough precautions that the starting state is better than unknown. The above is mostly to demonstrate that the NCAA absolutely has to have a plan in place. With a 7 day quarantine they are almost guaranteed to need it.

tenor.gif
 
#112      
I can't believe that someone has us as a 4 seed as of 2/10. Most have us as a 2 and couple of 3s and a few 1s. I see us right now as a 2 possibly a 1 but a 4. No way
Ha, thanks for pointing that out. That bracket has Mizzou as a 2 seed and Iowa as a 3 seed. Pretty sure it's intentionally seeded to spite Illinois.
 
#113      
They just released who the top 16 seeds would be if the season ended today and we'd be the top #2 seed(5th overall).
 
#114      
#5 in bracket (the ranking that counts) reveal!!! BTN depth with 3-5, 13 and a couple others in discussion
 
#116      
Looks like we are #7 over all as we are being matched up against the overall #2, not the #4., but that is because our fellow BigTen "brethern" have the #3 and #4.
 
#123      
#5 overall. Still matched up with Baylor to avoid a B1G match up (with Michigan & OSU each earning 1 seeds).
I got a kick out of what Coach said the other day: "Adam Miller made 10 defensive mistakes against Baylor; he's not making any now." Wish someone had asked, "so, you want a rematch with them?"
(Yes, I've erased yesterday's game from my memory, though not because ofiller's defense.)
 
#124      
#5 overall. Still matched up with Baylor to avoid a B1G match up (with Michigan & OSU each earning 1 seeds).
Yep. I fixed that seconds after posting and realizing the reason, you guys corrected me quickly. It still makes us have to play a higher seed than what we deserve. Still a lot of basketball to play, I just hope someone can beat OSU and MI.
 
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