Bracketology

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#1,101      
I just don't know guys. Typically in the past, good wins are worth more in the committee's eyes than bad losses. Last year or two years ago (can't remember which), the committee chair even said they didn't care much about the losses when comparing bubble teams because bad teams aren't in the tournament and they've proven they can play with the top teams. Not saying this is the case in 2017, but my honest opinion is that the lack of signature wins is going to hurt us. Purdue (or anyone in the conference) isn't a signature win in the committee's eyes.
 
#1,102      
Any examples immediately come to mind of the committee explicitly stating that strength of schedule was the deciding factor? Or types of losses (like lots of blowouts)?

I feel like those are our biggest strength and weakness, respectively.
 
#1,103      
I think you guys are putting way too much stock in the top 50 and top 100 RPI. That is just a benchmark which makes it easier to look at and compare resumes. Since we are a bubble team the committee will be looking MUCH closer at our wins and losses. Northwestern and Michigan potentially being out of the top 50 doesn't really mean much IMO.

I agree and disagree. When you are comparing large groups of teams then you have to have some cut off for comparisons, so in that sense the top 50/100 is important.

Now if it comes down to the end for the last spot or two and we're in that group, then yes they probably are going to dig a little deeper and the exact RPI numbers may not mean as much.

Purdue (or anyone in the conference) isn't a signature win in the committee's eyes.

Purdue is top 15 in the polls and top 20 RPI. Definitely a signature win.
 
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#1,104      

UofI08

Chicago
I just don't know guys. Typically in the past, good wins are worth more in the committee's eyes than bad losses. Last year or two years ago (can't remember which), the committee chair even said they didn't care much about the losses when comparing bubble teams because bad teams aren't in the tournament and they've proven they can play with the top teams. Not saying this is the case in 2017, but my honest opinion is that the lack of signature wins is going to hurt us. Purdue (or anyone in the conference) isn't a signature win in the committee's eyes.

I agree with almost everything. The only disagreement is Purdue. I think that would be considered a signature win. I don't see how we make it without beating Purdue. If we somehow did make it without a Purdue win, that would be because of the other bubble teams helping us.
 
#1,106      
I agree with almost everything. The only disagreement is Purdue. I think that would be considered a signature win. I don't see how we make it without beating Purdue. If we somehow did make it without a Purdue win, that would be because of the other bubble teams helping us.

It'd be interesting to see what the committee would do if Vanderbilt loses their first game. We're kind of on the opposite sides of the spectrum. Given we beat Michigan and lose to Purdue.
 
#1,107      
I'm going with the assumption that every win in the B1G tourney is worth about 1/4 odds of an NCAA invite.
make the finals -- probably in unless the bubble gets squeezed
win the B1G tourney -- autobid!

Well, one piece of good news is that BYU lost last night. They won't steal an automatic bid.
 
#1,108      
I agree with almost everything. The only disagreement is Purdue. I think that would be considered a signature win. I don't see how we make it without beating Purdue. If we somehow did make it without a Purdue win, that would be because of the other bubble teams helping us.

I shouldn't say 'signature win', because that's relative to what our resume is to date. I think we look at Purdue far differently than the people actually making the decisions as they didn't include them (or any big ten team) in their top 16 when they released it about a month ago. I'm sure they will end up around a #4 seed on Sunday night as they're playing well, but the top big ten team isn't a top 5 or top 10 team this year. Purdue isn't an impossible win for us just because we were blown out on the road during a bad stretch of the season.

I'm hoping the committee looks at the big ten and is really impressed with 7-8 teams. Knowing they didn't include Purdue (20-5) or Wisconsin (21-3) in the top 16 on initial rankings was really telling though.
 
#1,109      

UofI08

Chicago
I shouldn't say 'signature win', because that's relative to what our resume is to date. I think we look at Purdue far differently than the people actually making the decisions as they didn't include them (or any big ten team) in their top 16 when they released it about a month ago. I'm sure they will end up around a #4 seed on Sunday night as they're playing well, but the top big ten team isn't a top 5 or top 10 team this year. Purdue isn't an impossible win for us just because we were blown out on the road during a bad stretch of the season.

I'm hoping the committee looks at the big ten and is really impressed with 7-8 teams. Knowing they didn't include Purdue (20-5) or Wisconsin (21-3) in the top 16 on initial rankings was really telling though.

Yeah I guess it's all just semantics, but I'm right there with you. Really Purdue would be our best win by far all year, and having to count on that to get into the tournament just shows how little we've accomplished this year. Numbers and resume wise we're right there on the bubble. I just don't see how the committee can look at our actual opponents and results and think we're a good enough team for the tournament. Our best wins are MSU, Michigan, and Northwestern. How good are those teams? Like 7 seed at best? We have a lot of mediocre on our resume with nothing great.
 
#1,111      
Bubble Watch 3/7:
RPI is next to team
SF9JVZG.png
 
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#1,120      

Illini1221

Peru,IL
It might be a moot point by the time they play, but will Northwestern get back into the top 50 with a win Thursday? We are really close to having 5-6 top 50 wins, but at the same time really close to having 1.
 
#1,121      
It might be a moot point by the time they play, but will Northwestern get back into the top 50 with a win Thursday? We are really close to having 5-6 top 50 wins, but at the same time really close to having 1.

top 50 is used as a forward-looking perspective to tournament team. i think the committee asseses the locks and views quality wins as those in the tourney.
 
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