You forgot 2 losses to penn state to go along with that bad rutgers loss.
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BigSandysFinest
- Chicago
Not necessarily. PSU is a top 100 RPI team, so it would not constitute as a 'bad loss.'
Real Time RPI had ISU's SOS at 138 before today's game. They were really penalized by the fact that the 3rd best team in the MVC was 143 in RPI and Drake, Bradley and Indiana St were so bad. That being said, they could have done themselves a lot of good by scheduling a few stronger non-conference opponents. And the loss to Murray St (RPI 229) REALLY hurt. I personally think ISU will be in the NIT.
Deleted member 236589
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You're point is 100% valid. I was so pissed on Saturday after losing to Rutgers, in a game that was critical for them to have, that I personally don't believe they deserve to be included in the field short of winning the BTT. When you go to Rutgers, with all the marbles on the table, and do that....The "we play the tougher schedule card" goes out the window. Rutgers is a middle of the pack MVC team, at best, and we got beat. Same with Winthrop. Dropping two to Penn State, giving Penn State 1/3 of their total BT win total.....All reasons I wouldn't be upset in the least to see a 26 win ISU team get in over us.
The fact that this tournament has become so watered down given the amount of teams that get in, who really is going to take issue with the last 4 in vs the last 4 out. They are either going to be P5 teams who had very average years or mid-major who had fantastic years, but their SOS hurt them. So, what's the right answer? A 26 win mid-major school or an 18 win P5 school that played like crap for 10 games but the conference weight carried them in? Does it really matter? Both sides are right, which is why the "bracketologists" make the money they do. People wait for their updates to come out to see if they'll be.....The last team in. Awesome.
Bluntly, after losing the games we've lost, beating nobody in the top half of the conference or in the top 25....The fact that we're even in consideration is a joke. I was excited until Saturday, feeling that we turned the corner. We didn't. Yet, we're making arguments vs other 13 and 14 loss teams and mid-major teams with 25+ wins. If we beat Michigan and Purdue.....We can bang on the drum a little harder. Until then, we're in the same stew of mediocrity as the rest of the people that Palm, Lunardi, etc....Make a living off of.
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How about UI/KSU?
illinoisfan11
- Peoria, IL
Just took a glance at the Dance Card this afternoon, and they had UI at 97%, which is crazy to me after Saturday's disaster.
What is the consensus on what we'd need to do to feel firmly in? Beat UM and PU? I don't feel good about the possibility of either of those things, but here's to hoping!
What is the consensus on what we'd need to do to feel firmly in? Beat UM and PU? I don't feel good about the possibility of either of those things, but here's to hoping!
I think the only guarantee is if we reach the BTT finals, with that said, 50/50 with just one win against Michigan if we can get a little help. I would say 80% if we get through Purdue.
I don't think MI is going to cut it. There will be non-P5 conference upsets that could let in a handful of teams. It's PU or bust in my opinion, which is lucky to begin with.
I think we're farther out of the conversation than the numbers may say. I think everyone is overrating our RPI and SOS.
We were 8-10 in conference. Finished 9th. We'd have to jump Iowa, and possibly Michigan and MSU in our own conference. (I know it doesn't work that way but all those teams finished with winning conference records.)
We have NO signature wins. One terrible loss to Rutgers. And other bad losses to Penn State twice and Winthrop.
Nothing short of getting to the BTT final gets us in, and even then, we would probably have to win it.
We were 8-10 in conference. Finished 9th. We'd have to jump Iowa, and possibly Michigan and MSU in our own conference. (I know it doesn't work that way but all those teams finished with winning conference records.)
We have NO signature wins. One terrible loss to Rutgers. And other bad losses to Penn State twice and Winthrop.
Nothing short of getting to the BTT final gets us in, and even then, we would probably have to win it.
I don't really either, but if we just win the Michigan game, I think we all have a reason to watch selection Sunday at the very least.
Go read the dancecard website again. That is not what 97% means.
" also shown is the probability that a team with the same profile would have gotten an at-large bid in past years, if today was Selection Sunday. "
In the average year, as of today, that is the prediction. The 97% chance is not indicative of THIS YEAR and does nothing about predicting the rest of the season (like what teamrankings does). Totally depends on how the last week goes/conference upsets etc.
illinihawk16
- Chicago
My sources within the selection committee say that if we win 4 BTT games, then we have a pretty good shot.
Firmly in? Beat Michigan, Purdue and Minnesota. Win those first 2 and you have a chance if some other bubble teams stumble and give us some help.
Just beating Michigan still leaves us with a decent resume, but one problem is NW is no longer a top 50 team. Beating Michigan knocks them out of the top 50, too. So now you're left with just 2 quality wins and the bad Rutgers loss. Probably not enough to get you in.
illinihawk16
- Chicago
I'm curious. How many non-P5 conferences have a team that would get an at-large berth without winning their conference tourney? From what I'm seeing, these are the teams that we should be paying attention to (excluding teams like SMU, VCU, St Mary's that should have bids locked up):
CUSA (Middle Tennessee) - MTSU should be pretty solidly in, not likely that a loss in their conference tourney would knock them out. We need them to win the CUSA
Mountain West (Nevada) - Nevada could potentially get an at-large. Colorado St and Fresno St likely won't get a bid without winning the tourney. We need Nevada to win the Mountain West to feel good about the MWC being a 1-bid league
Colonial (UNC-Wilmington) - UNCW has the potential for an at-large. We need them to win the Colonial
Sun Belt (UT-Arlington) - UTA has somewhat of an outside shot at an at-large berth. This is likely a 1-bid conference anyway, but I'd feel safer if they won.
America East (Vermont) - similar to UTA, Vermont has somewhat of an outside shot at an at-large berth. Again, likely 1-bid anyway, but I'm still going to feel better if Vermont wins the America East
All other smaller conferences seem to 1-bid leagues. I just scanned bracketmatrix and dance card to pull this together, so let me know if there are other teams I missed that we need to win their leagues.
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Monday morning and I'm still in mourning...
I don't know why people keep repeating that Penn State and Winthrop are bad losses. They are not bad losses. Our only bad loss so far is Rutgers. I think if we beat Michigan, we have a 50/50 chance of getting in. If we beat Purdue, I feel a bit safer about being in the tournament. I would obviously prefer to win the BTT to remove all doubt of making the NCAAT, but if we beat Michigan, I will tune in on selection Sunday. Obviously, that's not going to be easy to do. I just hope the team brings back the same intensity and goes hard at Michigan. I really want Malcolm and Mav in the NCAAT
None of the teams listed have a prayer of getting an at large bid. MTSU has the least worse case. They have 2 top 50 wins over other bubble teams (Vandy, UNC-W) but 3 bad losses.
Nevada and UNC-W only played 1 top 50 team each and lost that game.
Vermont only played 4 top 100 teams and lost all of those games.
UTA has 1 top 50 win and it's a good one over St Mary's, but they have 4 bad losses.
These aren't at large worthy profiles.
As long as PSU can beat Nebraska, this is true. If they lose that game though, we'll have 2 more 100+ RPI losses on the resume.
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BigSandysFinest
- Chicago
Our resume took a hit this morning as Northwestern dropped out of the RPI T50. Michigan sits at 47 and Michigan State is at 48. If we beat scUM, they more than likely drop out of the T50 leaving us with only 2 quality wins :hurl: Also worth noting, Nebraska is on the cusp of dropping out of the T100 (One less T100 win) as is Penn State (Would give us two more bad losses).
In terms of the BTT, we should root for
3/8: Penn State (Keeps them in the T100) and I guess Rutgers? (Improves RPI)
3/9: Michigan State (Keeps them in the T50), Iowa? (Makes our wins against them look better, but keeps them on the bubble), Northwestern (Keeps them in the T50)
3/10: Michigan State (Guarantees a T50 finish), Wisconsin (Ends bubble talk for Iowa/IU), Northwestern? (Guarantees a T50 finish)
3/11: Purdue (If they beat us, I want them to win the BTT), Wisconsin (Send the kitty cats home)
3/12: Doesn't matter
In terms of the BTT, we should root for
3/8: Penn State (Keeps them in the T100) and I guess Rutgers? (Improves RPI)
3/9: Michigan State (Keeps them in the T50), Iowa? (Makes our wins against them look better, but keeps them on the bubble), Northwestern (Keeps them in the T50)
3/10: Michigan State (Guarantees a T50 finish), Wisconsin (Ends bubble talk for Iowa/IU), Northwestern? (Guarantees a T50 finish)
3/11: Purdue (If they beat us, I want them to win the BTT), Wisconsin (Send the kitty cats home)
3/12: Doesn't matter
Is your source named Captain Obvious? =P
GIven the Rutgers debacle, I am surprised to see we're still even in the first four out per Lunardi.
No. Can't have Iowa keep winning. A 1-BTTWin Iowa < 2-BTTWin Illinois, but I'd rather them get knocked out first and be safe. If we both win 2, we are likely playing for the same slot.
Here are some DP's reinforcing my position that a PU Win puts us in:
https://bracketologist3.files.wordpress.com/2017/03/bracketology-through-march-5th-2017.pdf
http://bracketball.blogspot.com/
https://131sports.com/
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Oh, and not really what you were going for here, but might as well have Northern Kentucky win the Horizon League. They are the highest remaining seed, it would help our RPI and keep them in the top 100.
Illini1221
Peru,IL
I'd say if we beat Michigan with some help from other teams we'd be at about a 30-35 % chance to dance.
You're right. When I said 50/50, I realized later that estimate was high. Basically the point I was getting at is that if we beat Michigan, I'll be watching selection Sunday. Which I kind of exciting considering the huge egg laying Saturday.
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