Bracketology
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Soxfreak64
- Bloomington
Beat Michigan and the bubble breaks mostly right, Illinois could sneak in to a first-4 situation. Beat Michigan and Purdue and Illinois is in, barring epic bubble popping from the mid majors.
I'm cheering so hard for Malcolm Hill to get his shot. And I want to see Illinois play Purdue with Lucas guarding Edwards.
I'm cheering so hard for Malcolm Hill to get his shot. And I want to see Illinois play Purdue with Lucas guarding Edwards.
It will be interested what the committee does with a gaudy Illinois State record against some of these power-5 teams that have a ton of losses. I think we have a shot at Purdue if we get past Michigan. Purdue isn't playing that great right now, and the bye teams generally have a tough time in their first game in the tournament (this is a real thing). You just never know.
Cheez
- Sun Prairie WI
Illinois State has a strong RPI along with their record. They just look awful.
And one of the worst, if not THE worst, SOS's of any at-large team. Committee hates teams that load up on cupcakes to inflate RPI
:huh:
Wichita St's SOS is #140, ISU's is #120.
ISU's problem is they lost to Murray St, Tulsa and San Francisco. Their schedule was fine.
If your SOS is inthe 120's, your schedule was not fine, obviously. This is the whole reason they are in bubble land in spite of their gaudy win/loss record. Again, not fine. Fine=solidly in. Not fine=bubbeland
But some think a 500 record or worse in P5 gets you in. that is ridiculous.\Is Winthrop only worthy because they won their tournament. No they were 25-6 but if they lost today they are out. Does that makes sense?
My point was Wichita St was getting in either way and their SOS was worse. Because they still had a clean resume, no bad losses. It's really the same thing, if you have that schedule you can't afford those losses.
Also, UCLA's SOS is 92, Gonzaga 85, St Mary's 84, SMU 86. Not all that far off of ISU's.
Tougher time for the Valley after losing some teams like Creighton, etc. It's a weaker league now, less margin for error.
Winthrop played the 219th toughest schedule. WHy is 25-6 vs that impressive? They had 3 bad losses (2 of which were against 200+RPI teams)
They beat zero top 50 teams, but won 2 vs top 100 (one of whihc was us LOL). But from a resume perspective htey have zero good wins and 3 bad losses. WHy should they be in?
What do you think a team like ISU would be in the big 10 or acc? They went 1-2 vs WSU (Not to mention getting blown out by 40 and 20)....who themselves went 1-3 vs P5 teams.
WSU lost to a 9-9 Ok state team, a 10-8 MSU team, and louisville (strong p5 team).
WSU beat a 5-13 Oklahoma team by 3.
EDIT: WSU actually went 2-3 vs P5.....they also beat a 2-16 in conf LSU team
I think ppl are underestimating the schedule in the p5 conferences.
24/27 wins for ISU came vs teams with a 100+ RPI.
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How are those SOS numbers, not that far off from ISU? Per CBS, ISU's SOS is 139...The closest one is 47 spots better. Thats a pretty big difference.
UCLA has 11 top 100 wins
st mary's has 7
SMU has 7
ISU has 2....bc they only played 4 games all year (and got blown out in two of those games). All the teams you referenced have more WINS vs top 100 than ISU even played. That should be evidence enough that their schedule strength are largely different.
Try and follow the context of the discussion, this has nothing to do with what I've been discussing. I'm not advocating that ISU should be in, but rather that their SOS is not the reason for them getting snubbed.
Enlighten me..WHat is the reason?
Bc i think SOS is the reason..at least indirectly
And my bad if i missed something in the discussion, but that doesnt make your claim htat the other teams' SOS were not at all far from ISU's any more true.
What do you think a team like ISU would be in the big 10 or acc? They went 1-2 vs WSU (Not to mention getting blown out by 40 and 20)....who themselves went 1-3 vs P5 teams.
It doesn't matter what you think their record would be here or there. They have 25 wins. That is tells me they beat the teams they played. If you want a P5 tourney then I'm sure you could find enough people to agree but I would rather see Winthrop than a 500 or below P5 because of their PERCEIVED tough schedule.
It doesn't matter what you think their record would be here or there. They have 25 wins. That is tells me they beat the teams they played. If you want a P5 tourney then I'm sure you could find enough people to agree but I would rather see Winthrop than a 500 or below P5 because of their PERCEIVED tough schedule.
RichBradIllini
- Peoria
It's about to get a whole lot tougher for the Valley, I fear.
http://www.pjstar.com/sports/20170304/wessler-missouri-valley-teeters-on-verge-of-ugh
Perceived?
You don't think a b10/ACC/B12 slate is tougher than a big south sched? And for fun, just answer the question.
And there will never be an all p5 tourney nor do i think it should be, as 25ish mid majors and below will make it every year.
Go back and read my posts, I'm not going to type it all again.
It wasn't meant as significantly as you're taking it and again, only tangential to the main point.
Polls are not a remote consideration for the selection committee. Ranked teams have been left out of the tournament before. I doubt ISU gets in with 2 top 100 wins. That'd be the fewest ever for an at-large team.
Yeah...SMU a cpl years ago comes to mind. They were 23 in the poll before SS......got left out. SOS was in the 120s (and nonconf SOS even worse).
It is pretty rare though. Can't think of another example
Cheez
- Sun Prairie WI
ranked teams have missed the tournament before. Maybe you should do some research like the clueless bracketologists do.
Yes the Big 10 is a tougher conference. But I don't think a 500 conference record or below means you are better than a team that went 16-2 in their conference.
Cheez
- Sun Prairie WI
The bracketologists' reasoning is based on the fact that it has happened, and that the polls are not factored into the decision making process by the committee. So, to use it as a point to bash them as a group is illogical.
Cheez
- Sun Prairie WI
nor does a 16-2 conference record in the NEC make a team better than a .500 or lower team in a power 5. This is why record is not the only piece considered by the committee. It's an amalgamation of factors.
Record, RPI, SOS, Metrics, Eye-Test - all of it is used. Probably more.
BigSandysFinest
- Chicago
Bracketology: University of Illinois
Record: 17-13 (8-10) RPI: 57 SOS: 21
Home: (11-5) Road: (3-6) Neutral: (3-2)
Vs. RPI T25 (1-6), RPI T50 (5-8), RPI T100 (11-12)
Bad Loss:
@ Rutgers 14-17 (169)
Good Wins:
BYU (N) 22-10 (64)
Vs. Michigan 19-11 (49)
@/Vs. Northwestern 18-6 (48)
Vs. Michigan St 18-13 (47)
VCU (N) 24-7 (23)
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Still think we have an extremely impressive resume given the bubble.
Record: 17-13 (8-10) RPI: 57 SOS: 21
Home: (11-5) Road: (3-6) Neutral: (3-2)
Vs. RPI T25 (1-6), RPI T50 (5-8), RPI T100 (11-12)
Bad Loss:
@ Rutgers 14-17 (169)
Good Wins:
BYU (N) 22-10 (64)
Vs. Michigan 19-11 (49)
@/Vs. Northwestern 18-6 (48)
Vs. Michigan St 18-13 (47)
VCU (N) 24-7 (23)
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Still think we have an extremely impressive resume given the bubble.
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