Yeah I thought going into the Michigan State game that we needed 3-4 wins, and that hasn't changed. Now we still need 2-3 knowing that some of these bubble teams are likely to go deep in their respective tournaments. It's hard to predict it, but if Syracuse and/or Vanderbilt win a few games, they will probably lock up a bid.
Bracketology
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Illini1221
Peru,IL
I definitely agree, and if a decent number of bubble teams go down in the early parts of the conference tourneys, I can see the chance being around 50/50. Tough to predict.
Illini1221
Peru,IL
If Kansas State even wins their first one, they will lock up, because it's against Baylor.
frozenrope9190
- Aurora, IL
I just don't want Michigan to be our final dagger for the 3rd time in 4 seasons. Get past them, and we'll worry about the rest the next day.
FeelYourPaign
- So Cal
I honestly feel that if the Illini were to win on Thursday and Friday, the sequence of losing to Rutgers, but beating Michigan and Purdue would be enough to make the dance. Not the path anyone would choose, but I feel that would be likely.
Of course, I don't think it happens
Of course, I don't think it happens
Vandy would have to beat Flor for a 3rd time in game 2. That ain't happening. I think Vandy may be out unless they do. In fact, they will have to beat A&M for a third time as well in game 1. They may not make it past that. VERY hard to beat a decent team three times in one season.
I think beating Michigan still gives us a sliver of hope. Beating Purdue probably pushes our chances from 25% to 75%.
What are the opinions that if we beat Mich, they are out? Could it be we steal there spot? I still would put them over us, but that is a hell of an interesting situation, especially if NW loses too. 5 wins over Mich, NW, and Mich St. combined.
No, Michigan is in.
Here's hoping they relax knowing that.
mattcoldagelli
- Script Illinois Enthusiast
Not against their blue collar tormentors, they won't.
I'm going with the assumption that every win in the B1G tourney is worth about 1/4 odds of an NCAA invite.
Lose to Michigan -- no way
beat Michigan -- long shot, but crazier things have happened
beat Purdue -- even money
make the finals -- probably in unless the bubble gets squeezed
win the B1G tourney -- autobid!
Lose to Michigan -- no way
beat Michigan -- long shot, but crazier things have happened
beat Purdue -- even money
make the finals -- probably in unless the bubble gets squeezed
win the B1G tourney -- autobid!
There are some really interesting first and potential second round matchups for the teams sharing the bubble with us. Keep in mind, I'm just pointing these things out, obviously you can't predict anything but check this out. Note that my logic assumes we beat Michigan
Cuse - plays a solid Miami team, whom they have played once and beaten once. With anRPI at 80, a loss to Miami could knock them behind us.
Wake - probably solidly in but a loss to BC would likely return them to the bubble. Probsbly moot I don't see them losing to bc.
Vandy - plays a decent a&m team, have beaten them twice. Beating a decent conference foe three times is tough! A win probably gets them in but a loss probably knocks them out.
ILL ST - with no games to play and being the last team in I feel they likely fade to the wrong side. 2 top 100 wins isn't going to be enough imo
USC - one of the last in right now, plays wash for the third time, has beaten them twice. Again I bring up the hard to beat a team three times (not to say it won't happen). Would play UCLA if they advance, but a loss to an RPI 201 wash may knock them out. Tough here tho because wash is terrible, this is one where I can see an easy road to beating a team three times. May need to beat UCLA to punch their ticket tho.
Xavier - hasn't beaten a team not named DePaul since a feb 4th win vs. creighton. Plays, you guessed it, DePaul in the first game trying for, yet again, three wins. I could see they getting beaten with how they are playing, lose and I think they are out
RI - they get either st Bonnie (1-0), st joes (2-0) or umass (2-0). Another potential 3 wins needed situation. Probsbly need two wins given they only have 4 top 100 wins, and have a very bad loss (rpi +200)
KSU - Baylor. Gonna be tough. Win and they may move in based on what the others do but beating Baylor is tough.
Iowa - gets iu but with an rpi of 72 they need to win 2 imo to leap frog Illini assuming we beat mich.
Clem - with 14 losses already, going to wind up with 15 losses. I don't think their res is good enough to move ahead of us without a deep run
Cal - 1-7 vs. top 50, 4-9 vs. top 100, with two bad losses, I think they too would need to go on a run to move past us
Who'd I forget? Remember, this is all for fun. I'm not saying every team loses but there are some tough roads ahead to wins. Illini must beat mich to even have a shot.
Keep in mind, 6 of these team are currently in based on bracketmatrix (cuse, wake, vandy, USC, X and IL St). 6 spots available between all these teams, barring some miracle run by a lessor team in their con tourney. Maybe say 4 spots for all these teams but max 6.
Cuse - plays a solid Miami team, whom they have played once and beaten once. With anRPI at 80, a loss to Miami could knock them behind us.
Wake - probably solidly in but a loss to BC would likely return them to the bubble. Probsbly moot I don't see them losing to bc.
Vandy - plays a decent a&m team, have beaten them twice. Beating a decent conference foe three times is tough! A win probably gets them in but a loss probably knocks them out.
ILL ST - with no games to play and being the last team in I feel they likely fade to the wrong side. 2 top 100 wins isn't going to be enough imo
USC - one of the last in right now, plays wash for the third time, has beaten them twice. Again I bring up the hard to beat a team three times (not to say it won't happen). Would play UCLA if they advance, but a loss to an RPI 201 wash may knock them out. Tough here tho because wash is terrible, this is one where I can see an easy road to beating a team three times. May need to beat UCLA to punch their ticket tho.
Xavier - hasn't beaten a team not named DePaul since a feb 4th win vs. creighton. Plays, you guessed it, DePaul in the first game trying for, yet again, three wins. I could see they getting beaten with how they are playing, lose and I think they are out
RI - they get either st Bonnie (1-0), st joes (2-0) or umass (2-0). Another potential 3 wins needed situation. Probsbly need two wins given they only have 4 top 100 wins, and have a very bad loss (rpi +200)
KSU - Baylor. Gonna be tough. Win and they may move in based on what the others do but beating Baylor is tough.
Iowa - gets iu but with an rpi of 72 they need to win 2 imo to leap frog Illini assuming we beat mich.
Clem - with 14 losses already, going to wind up with 15 losses. I don't think their res is good enough to move ahead of us without a deep run
Cal - 1-7 vs. top 50, 4-9 vs. top 100, with two bad losses, I think they too would need to go on a run to move past us
Who'd I forget? Remember, this is all for fun. I'm not saying every team loses but there are some tough roads ahead to wins. Illini must beat mich to even have a shot.
Keep in mind, 6 of these team are currently in based on bracketmatrix (cuse, wake, vandy, USC, X and IL St). 6 spots available between all these teams, barring some miracle run by a lessor team in their con tourney. Maybe say 4 spots for all these teams but max 6.
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Indeed. But there aren't too many of those situations this year. IL st is one potentially but I don't think they make the cut. The rest would be Cinderella runs in power conferences which is tough to do.
by the same token, we should be cheering for Middle Tennessee and UT Arlington. I'm not sure that either one gets an at-large bid on their own (especially UT Arlington), but it couldn't hurt us to have them win their conference tournament and remove all doubt.
And to be honest, Vandy still makes me wonder even if they beat a&I'm because of the whole 15 loss thing. Is the committee ready to accept their first 15 loss team? May take vandy two wins but they would play an angry Florida team in round two and I just don't see them beating THAT team three times in one season
Sure, go ahead but they have no chance at at large bids.
I think Middle Tennessee might - but I'll admit to UT Arlington being a bit of a stretch.
Mtsu has a gaudy record but yeah I don't see them taking an at large. 14 of their wins are agai st rpi 200+ And 22 are against rpi 100+. Ut Arlington? Got a dictionary? Look up fat chance
I think you guys are putting way too much stock in the top 50 and top 100 RPI. That is just a benchmark which makes it easier to look at and compare resumes. Since we are a bubble team the committee will be looking MUCH closer at our wins and losses. Northwestern and Michigan potentially being out of the top 50 doesn't really mean much IMO.
I agree with this completely. The lack of a big win on the resume doesn't help at all, and we already know that the committee doesn't look at the Big Ten too kindly. I'm not sure how big of a win Purdue really is in their eyes. It's like us beating a #5 seed...that's pretty poor compared to teams we're compared against. I think we're in real trouble.
I don't know what you thought I meant, but I think we are in better position than most people realize. If we beat Purdue we're in IMO.
Yeah we picked up a bad loss @Rutgers but it isn't that bad compared to some other teams bad losses. And yeah we don't have an amazing win, but our road record and strength of schedule makes up for that because we have more top 100 wins than most other bubble teams.
Right now I give us a 50/50 chance at dancing if we beat Michigan, 80% chance if we beat Purdue, and 100% chance if we make it to the final.
Looking at the numbers I have to agree with you. Amazing as it is we keep hanging around. I would go a little lower on chances with just Michigan win to 40% depending on other Bubble team. Beat Michigan and Purdue and we are in. Win 3 and we are a 10 seed
I'm just an average Joe with an opinion, not an expert, but I would put our odds lower than 50% if we beat Michigan and lose to Purdue. I do agree with you that we are probably 80+% if we can beat Purdue though.
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