Bracketology
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Of the bubble teams we are up against, many of them may wind up with 14 losses. Wake and Georgia both have tough road games this weekend, and if they lose they will both get to 13 losses. GT already has 13 losses, and Vandy has 14. Cuse, who is listed as currently in, also has 13 losses. All these teams are expected to add a loss in their conference tourneys. If they all have 14 losses, and only 11 teams in history have been accepted with 14 losses or more, I'd say we are in good shape if we take care of Rutgers and the first game in the BTT. The committee clearly dislikes 14+ loss teams and it would seem to take unique circumstances for a 14+ loss team to get in, which I don't think any of those teams have.
It is a very tough task. There have only been 11 teams with 14 losses to ever receive an at-large bid to the tourney. Linked here with profiles on each team:
http://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball...-basketball-teams-make-ncaa-tournament-double
Most had extenuating circumstances. Interesting that MSU's AD heads the selection committee this year....of all years.
To be fair, there likey would be many more 14 loss teams in historically if the tourney had been 68 teams earlier than 2011...that means going back all those years, there would be 4 more teams let in each year.
Man... the more I look at these rankings and whatnots, the more mad I get at blowing the Winthrop game and how unprepared they looked for the Penn St games. Pull out Winthrop and beat Penn St once and the Illini would be solidly in the Tourney with a win over Rutgers regardless of whatever happens in the BTT.
I think Lunardi is on crack. How is Cal in? 15 of their 19 wins are against sub 100 teams. 8 of those are sub 200. They are 1-7 against the top 50, with their one win against USC. They have a mediocre mid-major's record. Who cares if they lost to 6 good teams and the home games were close? They are an NIT team all the way.
Xavier still in? Xavier 18-12 does have 4 nice wins Creighton, Wake, Seton Hall and Providence - those sound like our top wins. one problem though. They have not beaten anyone not named Depaul since Feb 4. they have dropped 6 straight, 4 to other bubble teams.
Yeah. Solid seeding at that point.
Let's just be thankful that the field has had equally as bad performance this year and just get into the damn thing and survive.
Of the brackets submitted today, we would be the first team out. Wake, Cuse, Cal, and Illinois State would be the final four in. RI and Vandy behind us.
Biggest games for us are Cal @ Utah and Syracuse vs GT. Vandy could also jump us with a high profile win vs Florida.
Could have pulled those out, and had a couple bad bounce with losses against BYU/OSU/MSU and we'd still be in the same place... Point is, you can't play the close game scenario and only look at the losses.
Yes, if we were a better/more consistent team, we'd be a much different place. But here we are. We have a shot, which is more than we hoped for a month ago when we were 2-8 in the B1G.
He has some puzzling choices at times. I think he has Cal in because they are 10-6 in the P12 even though that isn't a valid criteria and 7 of those 10 wins are against bad teams.
Will be an interesting case on how injuries are handled. Their struggles started when they lost their PG for the season. So they should be judged on how they've done without him, since that is the team that would be in the tournament and there's enough games to do a decent evaluation. However (and this is just my opinion) I think they are OK with dropping a team's seed due to losing a good player but reluctant to exclude a team completely if they still have a good resume.
Illinifanatic4ever
- Orange & Blue Blood in my Veins
Can someone come up with a list of bubble teams and who they play this weekend so we have an idea of who to root for and against.
If, huge if, Xavier loses to Depaul on Saturday I think they'll get left out. Clearly not the same team
I think we are going to be sweating it unless we get 3 more wins. Wake Forest's win last night was not helpful. Also we need to root for ISU to lose early.
Seems to me like the teams to watch for are the middle of the pack big east teams (Seton Hall, Marquette, Xavier, and Providence) and a mixutre of lower tier Big 12, SEC and ACC teams (Syracuse, Georgia Tech, Georgia, KSU and also throw Cal in there). If it comes down to us and 3 of those teams, its going to be extremely tight. Cal losing to Utah tonight might be the best thing to happen for us, essentially removing them from the talk. Georgia Tech/Cuse is gonna be interesting too, might decide which gets in vs which doesnt. The Big East teams are really up for grabs right now. I could see all of them somehow getting in. Chances are three make it.
An interesting thought is that Ill. St is no lock for the tourney. They are on the right side of the bubble now, but an early exit from arch madness might mean they are also in contention for a first four bout, or worse. I'd love to see an Ill. St/UI first four game.
An interesting thought is that Ill. St is no lock for the tourney. They are on the right side of the bubble now, but an early exit from arch madness might mean they are also in contention for a first four bout, or worse. I'd love to see an Ill. St/UI first four game.
ChiefIlliniwek
- Omaha, Nebraska
I don't really know the whole list, but I do know Illinois is on the bubble, so I would root for them. :thumb:
Two wins gives us a coin flips chance of making it. Three would most certainly make the odds closer to 100%. Neither makes us a lock.
There have only been 6 since 1985, and 5 of them happened in 2011. So I'm guessing none since 2011. Also, you can cross Vandy off the list. They will have 15 losses if considered for an at large and I just can't see that team being the first in history to make the dance with 15 losses.
"Again, no team has earned an at-large bid with 15 losses, and just six since 1985 have received one with 14 losses"
http://si.com/college-basketball/2017/02/27/ncaa-tournament-bubble-watch
http://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball...-basketball-teams-make-ncaa-tournament-double
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I'd love to see a UI/KSU first four game, and I'd love to see us curb stomp the Fighting Bruce Webers by about 30!
We need Syracuse, Vandy, Cal, RI, Wake, KState, Georgia Houston to lose
It is a classic loss of objectivity and lack of logical reasoning. Northwestern also "sealed the bid" by getting a win (Michigan at home) that Illinois also has.
Wittsdream
- Chicago
3 wins will get us in a great position to receive an at-large bid, especially if we're the 8 or 9 seed in the BTT. That means we'd have a chance to get that signature win against Purdue, the regular season conference champs.
I can't imagine us being left out in that scenario, regardless of what happens elsewhere.
OTOH, it's possible that even if we win just 2 more, we would sneak in, but that would largely be dependent on how conference tourney results shake out.
For me, the ironic storyline could be if Groce, once left for dead and a purported lame duck coach, will have succeeded in attaining his goals, whereas his much discussed possible replacements - Cuonzo Martin and Kevin Keatts - failed to do so.
It could happen.
I can't imagine us being left out in that scenario, regardless of what happens elsewhere.
OTOH, it's possible that even if we win just 2 more, we would sneak in, but that would largely be dependent on how conference tourney results shake out.
For me, the ironic storyline could be if Groce, once left for dead and a purported lame duck coach, will have succeeded in attaining his goals, whereas his much discussed possible replacements - Cuonzo Martin and Kevin Keatts - failed to do so.
It could happen.
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