I actually think we'll be blown out tomorrow. I expect that the outcome will be known by half time.
However, I can deal with your scenario if we lose because they get hot. If we lose because we sit on the ball, that's another story.
Bracketology
- Status
I actually think we'll be blown out tomorrow. I expect that the outcome will be known by half time.
However, I can deal with your scenario if we lose because they get hot. If we lose because we sit on the ball, that's another story.
I think the "boldness" was the bubble breaking our way and us actually having a lead.
Bold was probably used a bit liberally in this case.
Bold prediction: Ramrod goes to local bar to meet up with Illinois fans to watch game; makes his prediction; fan breaks his nose; local police arrest Ramrod for felony stupid and buys Illini fan his fourth bloody mary; insurance company refuses to cover hospital costs asserting it was a self-inflicted injury.
I suppose my vision had a 50/50 of them getting hot and us hitting one of those 6+ minute stretches without a FG.
And I don't see this team getting blown out, at least not for lack of effort. They haven't quit yet, can't see it happening in the last game of the year. Now if Michigan starts the game hitting their shots...
Haha, as long as I can be 4 deep by this point in time it wouldn't be my worst day.
They have a strange resume. They've got 3 really outstanding wins in Duke, Virginia, and Florida State - all top 20 rpi. After that there is a win against Miami (41) and a win against Wake (34). I think that is 5 wins better than our best win which is Michigan (46). They have some bad losses, but I think that is why people have them ahead of us.
The Syracuse radio team doesn't think they'll be in the tournament after losing today. Apparently they have 2 road/neutral wins all season and a weak non-conference resume (best win was home against Monmouth). How they would even be in consideration is beyond me. Sure, they have 6 wins against top 35 kenpom teams, but come on.
IllinoisFan733
- Chicago
VCU is ranked #23 in the RPI and is our best win.
I knew I would miss someone
. That's what I get for using my memory for our resume.Clemson is out with the loss to Duke, not that I thought they were a threat for a bid. The ACC looks to be about set for bids outside of the Wake Forest game. If Virginia Tech wins, it's the best case scenario for us in trying to get/stay above the pack of ACC bubble teams.
A win tomorrow puts us in a really good position. Probably 50/50 i'd say.
A win tomorrow puts us in a really good position. Probably 50/50 i'd say.
Syracuse loss is huge, they are almost certainly out of the tournament. Cal loss today would be great.
Jerry Palm was on local sports radio in DC today, said Big Ten is by far the most fun tournament, wide open, feels Ills, IU Iowa could all easily win the thing if they get hot.
Jerry Palm was on local sports radio in DC today, said Big Ten is by far the most fun tournament, wide open, feels Ills, IU Iowa could all easily win the thing if they get hot.
TheFlyingIllini1317
- Chicago, IL
Good point, I was just trying to joke about Illinois blowing isn't unusual.
BigSandysFinest
- Chicago
Cal barely survives, still work to be done for the bears.
illinoisfan11
- Peoria, IL
Survived against the worst team in the PAC 12. Cal has to be on the far outside looking in IMO.
Lunardi just said that Syracuse doesn't drop out of his FIRST FOUR BYES, and won't unless Xavier and KSU win, which would push them down to FIRST FOUR IN. That just doesn't sound right to me. I know people think he's drunk most of the time, but dude is generally correct give or take a team or two.
If Syracuse is still 6-7 teams clear of the cut line with an RPI probably bordering 90, I have no idea what to think about our chances.
If Syracuse is still 6-7 teams clear of the cut line with an RPI probably bordering 90, I have no idea what to think about our chances.
Agree on Syracuse. How he doesn't even have them in the play in game is beyond me.
BillyBob1
- Champaign
Syracuse has won 2 games away from home. They've lost 3 games to teams in the 100s (St Johns, Georgia Tech and UConn). And they've lost to BC (215) and they are safely in? Yes, they do have some good wins, but I thought the committee looked at how you did away from home?
BigSandysFinest
- Chicago
Illinois state at 85.7%? Clemson and Cal ahead of us? Don't buy it.
Yes, I like Nate's analysis, but he is favoring statistical models over wins (and road/neutral wins at that).
Although his analysis is more in depth than mine, I don't think the bracket makers favor statistical wins over actual wins in the same way. Although, statistical wins are better than statistical losses, they are still not better than real wins and I think Cal and Clemson are short too many real wins.
However, I would not put it past the committee to pick Illinois State over us. We have had a lot of chances where we haven't won. We need to win at least one and two would probably make it up for us.
BillyBob1
- Champaign
And Indiana!
I don’t like what this says about our chances, but I have been an advocate of strength of record for a while. It is the advanced metrics that include margin of victory (e.g., kenpom) where ILL get punished for its blow out losses that hurt the prediction.
Strength of schedule/RPI is good for assessing teams in the towards the middle of the range (0-351) but not good for assessing teams near the top. For example, the expected record of a team vs. the following two schedules would be quite different (for a top 50 team) but they have the same strength of schedule:
Schedule 1
1 game vs. rank #1
1 game vs. rank #350
Schedule 2:
2 games vs. rank #175
The expected win total for the a team ranked in the top 50 would be drastically different for schedule #1 vs. #2.
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illinihawk16
- Chicago
I'm a big fan of 538, and the explanation of how they did this makes sense. Sucks for us, though. I'd be curious to see these metrics against previous years and see how successful they are.
- Status