Bracketology

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#76      

bergd91

B
bergd91
I at this point in, "this season", šŸ˜“. Would prefer a 7-12 seed in Ncaa tournament. Let's play some other top teams and Aka upset them. Get going or move on to spring football. In 30 years this season has been exhausting, sometimes awesome, and a head scratcher. Here's to the men staying healthy, getting healthy, and enjoying what could be the final 2 weeks of.the season. After looking back replacing 85% of scoring and team players, to achieve 20 wins is just Huge!
 
#77      

Orange Wave

O
Orange Wave
IlliniFandom said:
Is Michigan's fate sealed as it relates to the tournament? Outside of winning the tournament outright, do they have a chance if they win their last game and make a good showing in the B1G tourney? I feel like them being selected for the play in game if they have a good showing, but feel like it's only because of the name Michigan carries (I can see UNC getting in as well by name alone)
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I can see CBS/Paramount begging for a Michigan/UNC play-in game
 
#80      

SkyysNotFalling

S
SkyysNotFalling
Fighter of the Nightman said:
Need MSU and Wisconsin to win their final games and not get a bad loss in the BTT, so long as it otherwise does not negatively affect us. Both are decimal dust away from being Quad 1.
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Say they donā€™t, or that they donā€™t move up to the Quad 1 territoryā€¦all of a sudden Illinois has less or equivalent quad 1 wins as Michigan, UNC, plenty of teamsā€¦ man, itā€™s going to be tough to get off the 9 line even though I think we are much better than that. Hereā€™s to hoping for a win in West Lafayette or a run in the BTT.
 
#81      

Second place is 1st loser

S
Second place is 1st loser
SkyysNotFalling said:
Say they donā€™t, or that they donā€™t move up to the Quad 1 territoryā€¦all of a sudden Illinois has less or equivalent quad 1 wins as Michigan, UNC, plenty of teamsā€¦ man, itā€™s going to be tough to get off the 9 line even though I think we are much better than that. Hereā€™s to hoping for a win in West Lafayette or a run in the BTT.
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2- 9 vs 3-10 is probably moot. Our two Q1 wins, being who they were against, has been propping us up all season. Without those......ooof. Of significant importance, no bad losses. That's where MI has a real problem.
 
#82      

SescIllini

SescIllini
SescIllini
Orange Wave said:
I can see CBS/Paramount begging for a Michigan/UNC play-in game
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Which may not be too bad compared to non-power 5 options.

Illinois has been erratic and inconsistent. Our biggest wins have been double digit comebacks. At this point of the season 3 isdues standout. Poor shot selection, we take a lot of 3s. 2. Oppising coaches are dictating which line-ups we play. Especially sitting Dain. 3. Poor 3 point defense. Even games where our defense was "elite" we were lucky the other team shot poorly.
 
#84      

danielb927

danielb927
Orange Krush Class of 2013
Rochester, MN
danielb927
One thing I really don't know is how much the committee values a barely-Q1 win versus a top Q2 win. How much do we care if MSU sneaks up one more spot in the NET? Or Wisconsin sneaking up 2 spots?

On the one hand, you can't just ignore the columns on the team sheet - and those records per quad are what the talking heads will rehash ad nauseum. On the other hand, the committee has lots of time to get into the details, and I've heard many folks say that the quads are just a guideline.
 
#85      

Second place is 1st loser

S
Second place is 1st loser
SescIllini said:
Which may not be too bad compared to non-power 5 options.

Illinois has been erratic and inconsistent. Our biggest wins have been double digit comebacks. At this point of the season 3 isdues standout. Poor shot selection, we take a lot of 3s. 2. Oppising coaches are dictating which line-ups we play. Especially sitting Dain. 3. Poor 3 point defense. Even games where our defense was "elite" we were lucky the other team shot poorly.
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I'm on board with most, outside of the "lucky" part. Theoretically, if Mayer hits his truly open ones yesterday, it's not as stressful. You can put the luck factor into play for just about everything.
 
#86      

Illinicpa14

I
Chicago
Illinicpa14
danielb927 said:
One thing I really don't know is how much the committee values a barely-Q1 win versus a top Q2 win. How much do we care if MSU sneaks up one more spot in the NET? Or Wisconsin sneaking up 2 spots?

On the one hand, you can't just ignore the columns on the team sheet - and those records per quad are what the talking heads will rehash ad nauseum. On the other hand, the committee has lots of time to get into the details, and I've heard many folks say that the quads are just a guideline.
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Do you think they actually get that far? Do you think they are actually spending 15 minutes a team at that level of saying ā€œIllinois has 2 wins over teams ranked 31, and 77 in the net, they are better than Mizzou, who now I have to look at their sheet and they may also have the same issueā€

just a question - I really just doubt they are going into that level of sophistication over the week for a random 7-9 seed. If they are doing it for us, are they doing the same on the 12-14 seed line.
 
#87      

danielb927

danielb927
Orange Krush Class of 2013
Rochester, MN
danielb927
Illinicpa14 said:
Do you think they actually get that far? Do you think they are actually spending 15 minutes a team at that level of saying ā€œIllinois has 2 wins over teams ranked 31, and 77 in the net, they are better than Mizzou, who now I have to look at their sheet and they may also have the same issueā€

just a question - I really just doubt they are going into that level of sophistication over the week for a random 7-9 seed. If they are doing it for us, are they doing the same on the 12-14 seed line.
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I honestly don't know, but I kind of assume so. Isn't the committee meeting pretty much full-time for like, a week? Some back-of-envelope math tells me they have quite a bit of time to get into the weeds:

100 teams to look at (68 bids + bubble teams and potential bid thieves/single-bid league contingencies)
/
50 hours of meeting
=
30 minutes per team on average

Some of that time is spent on bracketing logic (conference teams being spread out, etc.) rather than ordering teams in the s-curve.
 
#89      

Bogey99

Bogey99
Bogey99
Illinicpa14 said:
Do you think they actually get that far? Do you think they are actually spending 15 minutes a team at that level of saying ā€œIllinois has 2 wins over teams ranked 31, and 77 in the net, they are better than Mizzou, who now I have to look at their sheet and they may also have the same issueā€

just a question - I really just doubt they are going into that level of sophistication over the week for a random 7-9 seed. If they are doing it for us, are they doing the same on the 12-14 seed line.
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Yes, they definitely do get that far. That has been discussed many times over the years. Itā€™s why the Committee is basically locked in a hotel for days.
 
#90      

Illinisteve25

Illinisteve25
Champaign
Illinisteve25
Why is Indiana a projected 4 seed and we are an 8??? they beat Purdue twice we beat Ucla and Texas so that cancels out. We both have the same overall record and conference record. Maybe their strength of schedule? We have alot of common losses....
 
#91      

danielb927

danielb927
Orange Krush Class of 2013
Rochester, MN
danielb927
Illinisteve25 said:
Why is Indiana a projected 4 seed and we are an 8??? they beat Purdue twice we beat Ucla and Texas so that cancels out. We both have the same overall record and conference record. Maybe their strength of schedule? We have alot of common losses....
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SoS for sure. They've played 2 more Q1 games than us and won 5 to our 2. We both have a couple fringe-Q1 wins at home as well, so that's kind of a wash. Looks like they've had a pretty ridiculous road gauntlet with 11 of 12 road games being Q1s. By contrast, only 6 of our 9 road games are Q1s, and we've lost all 6 of those.

Even so, 4 seed lines does seem a little surprising.

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#95      

Fighter of the Nightman

Fighter of the Nightman
Chicago, IL
Fighter of the Nightman
Illini231 said:
How does Wisconsin move down 6 spots in the NET by losing by 2 at home to Purdue? FWIW they covered the spread. Makes no sense to me.
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You always think formulas like this are going to ā€œall even outā€ by the end of the season, but yeah ā€¦ I hope they just use it as a guideline, because it obviously canā€™t be relied on religiously. OSU this year is a great example, even if it happens to benefit us.
 
#96      

BlueLeader

BlueLeader
BlueLeader
Illinisteve25 said:
Why is Indiana a projected 4 seed and we are an 8??? they beat Purdue twice we beat Ucla and Texas so that cancels out. We both have the same overall record and conference record. Maybe their strength of schedule? We have alot of common losses....
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Q1 results are everything. Ours is bad.
 
#99      

Fighter of the Nightman

Fighter of the Nightman
Chicago, IL
Fighter of the Nightman
SkyysNotFalling said:
Say they donā€™t, or that they donā€™t move up to the Quad 1 territoryā€¦all of a sudden Illinois has less or equivalent quad 1 wins as Michigan, UNC, plenty of teamsā€¦ man, itā€™s going to be tough to get off the 9 line even though I think we are much better than that. Hereā€™s to hoping for a win in West Lafayette or a run in the BTT.
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That's not really an apt comparison, IMO. I am not sure exactly how the Committee weighs things, but I know that there are more categories than Quad 1 wins. Illinois not only has zero Quad 4 losses (7-0), we have zero Quad 3 losses (4-0). To add to this, we are a very impressive 7-1 in Quad 2 games. Meanwhile, Michigan has a Quad 4 loss at home and a 5-2 Quad 2 record. North Carolina is 6-3 in Quad 2 games.

Beating Purdue, getting a win or two in the BTT, having Wisconsin/MSU move up or any combination of these would absolutely boost our resume in a huge way. However, it is very relevant that we don't even KIND of have a bad loss. Our worst loss at this point is Penn State at home, as they are #57 in the NET (making it a Quad 2 loss). Look at some of these losses that Big Ten teams ranked ahead of or near us have:

Indiana: vs. #45 Northwestern (Quad 2)
Iowa: vs. #344 Eastern Illinois at home (Quad 4), vs. #77 Wisconsin at home (Quad 3), at #93 Nebraska (Quad 2)
Maryland: at #93 Nebraska (Quad 2)
Michigan: vs. #323 Central Michigan at home (Quad 4)

It's also worth noting that we stack up decently with the teams ranked ahead of us in the NET Rankings (we are #34). We are 2-9 vs. Quad 1, 7-1 vs. Quad 2, 4-0 vs. Quad 3 and 7-0 vs. Quad 4. Of the teams above us, five have at least one Quad 4 loss (Texas A&M and Utah State have two!). 14 of them have at least one Quad 3 loss, with Boise State, Kentucky, Xavier and St. Mary's each having two. Of the teams above us, only Houston, Alabama and UCLA have a better Quad 2 record!

I agree we need to nab another Quad 1 win to move up a spot, but our resume is actually pretty good. It's just not great. However, what's exciting is that we will get AT LEAST one and maybe even two or three chances to make it great before Selection Sunday!
 
#100      

eas23

E
eas23
Illinisteve25 said:
Why is Indiana a projected 4 seed and we are an 8??? they beat Purdue twice we beat Ucla and Texas so that cancels out. We both have the same overall record and conference record. Maybe their strength of schedule? We have alot of common losses....
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Q1 wins is the single most important number.
 
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