I'm glad that someone narrowed the timeline for us! (s)
David Mirkovic suffers left foot injury
If it happens in 2055, I'll have to live to be 100 years old. Maybe I can do it.
I love your positivity here, but with the schedule that Brad put together, an 0-fer in those games would do a TON of damage. WITH Mirk most of those games are 50/50 with Duke being 35/65.
The silver lining for people getting more PT is true. That will help, but if go game by game now, depending on when he comes back..... we're looking at a double digit loss season. Again, the preconference is BRUTAL.
Let's hope it's November
Joel Goodson
- it's all ball bearings, nowadays
dem bones will heal faster with round the clock cottage cheese poultices
LOL! Great stuff!Just thought I’d drop by to see how everyone’s summer is g…
Talking to a trainer (my personal trainer for what it is worth), even though he may start playing in November, the rule of thumb is for every week you are out injured add those total weeks to the time you start playing again before your at that the playing level before the injury...Out 3 months because of injury..Figure 6 months before Mirk is at playing at the level pre-injury..So we're talking probably February 2027 before he realistically is at 100%
Illini92and96
- Austin, TX
I would like to see a comparison of 9th men injuries. I’ve learned from the board that is a very crucial roster spot.this is great info.. can do the same with high impact players (20 or 25 mpg) as well. I'm not looking for confirmation bias just curious. I also thought we may be slightly over bitten by injury bug (or false allegation bug) but knew that everyone has injuries
For the next 6-8 weeks he will be in a boot then it will come off...and he can start low impact. Staff will ease him back in and we will see how his conditioning is at that point.
The game I am circling is the UConn game December 4th.
65/35 would be like -200 line
The #2 team facing #3-5 team would be closer to -120ish (or in your terms, 53/47ish)
EDIT: edited from #1 to #2... Florida is #1
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Still have an open roster spot, right? Insiders, are they looking to fill that now?
given the way the scheduling shakes out - this game target makes a ton of sense to me
Ha. Let’s put the ncaa’s “we take into account injuries” criteria to the test. In theory, they shouldn’t hold those losses against us if we do indeed lose
For what it’s worth, I’ve always hated this quirk in seeding by the NCAA- even if it could benefit us here
Do you hate it because it provides another opportunity for bias? Or something else?
Curbelo Fanboy
BERTBALL IS LIFE
6-8 weeks is a positive outcome IMO given the far darker possibilities. That brings us to early October-ish to start easing back into things. No need to rush but maybe he can play a few minutes in the exhibition games or first couple real games before Texas Tech on the 10th. Ideally he can get some run before that game & be in good game shape by Duke & UConn.
Is this epic trolling?
sacraig
- The desert
sacraig
- The desert
I guess he better give our players' bones and ligaments a good talking-to so that they know they aren't supposed to break or stretch too much.
Not sure it would even test that theory in this case. The non-conference schedule is so heavily weighted towards opponents that are either Q4 or Q1A, that I think it wouldn't make that much of an impact if they did consider it. The committee is not going to cut us a break for losing to Jackson St. with or without Mirk's injury. And if we lose a Q1A game like Duke, the committee is not going to hold it against us too much even if Mirk was there.
Also, some of the metrics used by the committee, particularly Torvik, aleady weight recency so that those early season games where we'd be missing Mirk would carry less importance. Recency also obviously impacts the subjective view that the committee members will have. If we struggle without Mirk and then dominate when he comes back it would be really hard to separate the impact of the injury and any consideration of that vs. the impact of the committee weighting recent performance over early season performance.
Where it would matter is if Mirk is still not back in time for conference play and we drop games to conference opponents we should be beating. Hopefully we don't have to test the theory under those circumstances.
NCAA has done a ton of nefarious things, I don’t consider this one of them. I think it comes from a good place of trying to be fair to not only Illinois (in this case) but also their opponent.
But, you can just go down a rabbit hole of how much you want to apply that use case that ends up being so messy.
I used the Texas Tech example last year. Ok, you lowered Tech’s seeding due to Toppin’s injury, makes sense. But what about all the other results? Was our game against tech looked at less than at the end of the year, even though we played Tech when they were healthy?
And then you have the nonsense where teams lie about injuries until after seeding (Mikel Brown, McCullers) which defeats the purpose anyway
Oddly enough, you pointing out you’re not even sure how it would factor in for us, is partly why I’m against it hah.
I agree with all your points
Broken foot injuries are interesting, so long as they are treated adequately and mobilized they can heal somewhat quickly. What would get me more nervous in this situation is that basketball is pretty high impact on the foot, so perfect world, you'd want the foot to be completely healed before going back to basketball activities, otherwise you start taking on more risk of it becoming a nagging injury. David also doesn't seem like the take it easy type.
Second part is that if the foot is fully mobilized for a couple months, flexibility of the foot and ankle is going to need time to recover. So if this is considered a 6-8 week injury, the more conservative insider estimates of 2027 may be more reasonable. Hoping for a much quicker full recovery though, obviously
RabidDawgClassic
- Los Angeles, CA
I’m hoping this is more of a Mirkovic “kill myself if I didn’t play” injury timeline as opposed to a Curbelo lingering Concussion timeline.
Yeah, if it didn't create unfairness for tournament opponents, it would be easiest to ignore injuries. EvanMiya's system is an interesting approach (he essentially rates players/lineups, not teams, so he can model the impact of a player being out), but I have no way of knowing how well it works.
And lying about injuries before selection is the worst. They should probably assume anyone who doesn't play at the end of the season is out for the tournament, though if the player actually does return, then their opponents get a raw deal. So I guess I can see the argument that overseeding a team negatively affects a few teams very slightly, while underseeding a team affects their opponents significantly, and maybe that's a bigger deal.
Without Mirk, you still see us in the top 5?
