David Mirkovic suffers left foot injury

#251      
Homecoming 2019
rdk573 said:
I have no doubt he will work hard to get back where he needs to be... However, Even if starts playing again in November again based on an optimistic timetable, I am concerned that it will take a lot longer to get back to the same level he was playing at prior to injury.

As an example, look at Boswell pre and post injury stats. While his points and rebounds stayed similar, Boswell efficiency really fell off (see below). While I am not claiming that Mirk will have the same trajectory as Boswell coming back from injury (....I know they're different injuries), it would not surprise me, if Mirk may not be 100% for several months after he's reinserted in the Illini rotation again

Kylan Boswell

PeriodPointsReboundsAssistsNotes
Before injury12.3 PPG4.0 RPG3.0 APGStrong scoring; consistent usage
After return (Feb 15–Mar 8)~10.5 PPG~4.0 RPG~3.5 APGSolid but slightly reduced scoring
Postseason7.8 PPG3.8 RPG1.6 APGNoticeable scoring drop


PeriodFG%3P%FT%eFG%TS%Notes
Before injury~48%~33–34%~78–80%~55%~59%Efficient, strong finishing, stable 3P
After return~41%~26%~67–75%~47%~52%Lower rhythm, reduced 3P accuracy
Click to expand...
Going to need those rate numbers normalized to the opponent too. Usually easier opponents early in the season. And a lot of the counting stats are due to Keatons rise.
 
#253      
jjv0004
NarrowJ said:
The board has successfully migrated from:

"Mirk is too slow, unathletic and not good enough to get drafted"

to:

"We are Norfolk State without Mirk"
Click to expand...
It's a fan board so people are all over the place. I am not a "Mirk is slow and not athletic" but I am also not a "he's a lottery pick." I do think he is the best player on the team.

Having said that I don't think we have a shot against Texas Tech (assuming JT Toppin healthy), Duke or UCONN without Mirk.
 
#255      
mysterio2525
rdk573 said:
I don't know is its a fair comparison since Goode got injured after his freshman year but, unlike Mirk, barely played as freshman..In addition, Goode was not considered an elite player going into his sophomore season and his sophomore stats were underwhelming to say the least ...but here you go..


SeasonGamesMinutesPointsReboundsFG%3P%eFG%Notes
2021–22 (Freshman)288.2 MPG2.0 PPG1.8 RPG32.7%37.2%~48%Full season, healthy
2022–23 (Post‑injury only)1014.5 MPG4.0 PPG1.6 RPG48.4%42.1%61.3%Returned Feb 11 after broken foot
Click to expand...
confirmed mirk will go from npoy consideration to now NBA MVP after he returns
 
#256      
Big Jack
 
#260      
NarrowJ
jjv0004 said:
It's a fan board so people are all over the place. I am not a "Mirk is slow and not athletic" but I am also not a "he's a lottery pick." I do think he is the best player on the team.

Having said that I don't think we have a shot against Texas Tech (assuming JT Toppin healthy), Duke or UCONN without Mirk.
Click to expand...

Obviously that was just a fun comment I made. People [hopefully] don't really think we're going to be equivalent to Norfolk State.

If you subtract Mirk from our roster on Torvik, we only drop 6 places.

Vegas also routinely only moves a line 2-4 points when a team's best player is out.

It moves the needle a bit for sure, just not nearly as big of a deal as some are making it out to be.

With an aggressive timeline, it may be moot anyhow.
 
#261      
Fly Illini Fly!
jjv0004 said:
Having said that I don't think we have a shot against Texas Tech (assuming JT Toppin healthy), Duke or UCONN without Mirk.
Click to expand...
I don’t think JT Toppin will be healthy Nov. 10.

They did get two big additions via the court rulings.

Honestly just a debbie downer viewpoint if you’re counting Toppin will play for them, but ruling Mirk out for us.
 
Last edited:
#262      
EmeraldCityIllini
RollChief said:
The argument I'm making isn't necessarily about achievability (totally agree with you when you factor in Drej and Stef), but more so about whether we want our offense to depend that much on one guy. It seems like it's pretty difficult to go on a deep run when that much of your offense depends on one guy, and a much more sustainable model is to have a team of contributors and role players.
Click to expand...

Probably goes back to what weve talked about since the moment Vaaks joined.

If one of our guys hits alongside Mirk to be a domask-esque star, then we go from really in business. To being the favorite IMO.

And yes that includes Florida and Duke in my mind, but obviously up for reasonable debate
 
#263      
Fighter of the Nightman
Been a rough week for me with work and some other stuff, so I hadn't checked Loyalty as much as I would have liked and the news hit me like a ton of bricks when I saw it. I, like everyone, hope that the optimistic timetable for return is the correct one!! However, I just want to take a moment to say that I am so thankful that we are now at the point where losing a player of Mirk's caliber takes us from an OBVIOUS Final Four contender down to, what ... an obvious Elite Eight contender?? Sweet Sixteen at worst? There were countless seasons where such a loss puts us in NIT territory.

Get well soon, buddy, we need ya!
 
#264      
wc_illini
NarrowJ said:
Obviously that was just a fun comment I made. People [hopefully] don't really think we're going to be equivalent to Norfolk State.

If you subtract Mirk from our roster on Torvik, we only drop 6 places.

Vegas also routinely only moves a line 2-4 points when a team's best player is out.

It moves the needle a bit for sure, just not nearly as big of a deal as some are making it out to be.

With an aggressive timeline, it may be moot anyhow.
Click to expand...
Taking Torvik's estimate a step further to calculate win probabilities (assuming 3pt home court advantage):

@Duke:
w/ Mirk: 30%
w/o Mirk: 24%

@TT (Tovik wouldn't let me subtract Toppin and add Williams and Atwell, so I'm taking a stab at this):
w/ Mirk: 55%
w/o Mirk: 48%

UConn (I'm giving us half the typical home court advantage):
w/ Mirk: 70%
w/o Mirk: 64%

That said, Torvik has UConn a lot lower than sportsbooks, and my guess is they'd have it around 53% with Mirk and 46% without.
 
Back