David Mirkovic suffers left foot injury

#178      
Second place is 1st loser
lstewart53x3 said:
Not to fight his battles for him, but you literally said:

“WITH Mirk most of those games are 50/50 with Duke being 35/65”

So he was reply to WITH Mirk.
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Well....

UCONN at the UC,

Texas Tech on the road,

Duke on the road,

UNC neutral sight(if he's not back until 1/30, we have problems)

Mizzou neutral sight

Not sure which 2 December games are conference games. Can't really comment there(hopefully not MSU, MI, UCLA, USC aren't part of it)

Outside of Mizzou(and whatever two December conference games we play)....what's not a 50/50?

With regards to 65/35, Duke will be a favorite. I'm not breaking news on how good they are at home. They are very, very rarely not a legitimate favorite at home.

Brad put a monster schedule together and a lot of that was due to having a fully loaded roster. I think most of us would have felt great about .500 in those.

Now.......?
 
#179      
wc_illini
lstewart53x3 said:
Not to fight his battles for him, but you literally said:

“WITH Mirk most of those games are 50/50 with Duke being 35/65”

So he was reply to WITH Mirk.
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That's how I saw it too.

But based on Torvik (doesn't account for this news), Duke would be favored by ~2.5, which corresponds to ~58-60% (between where you and NarrowJ had it). That passes the smell test when looking at the drop-off after #2 at sportsbooks (from before this news):

1785957121111.png
 
#180      
Combo
Second place is 1st loser said:
I love your positivity here, but with the schedule that Brad put together, an 0-fer in those games would do a TON of damage. WITH Mirk most of those games are 50/50 with Duke being 35/65.

The silver lining for people getting more PT is true. That will help, but if go game by game now, depending on when he comes back..... we're looking at a double digit loss season. Again, the preconference is BRUTAL.

Let's hope it's November
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I don't know what margin 35/65 translates to. But Duke will now be a heavy favorite in the game.

Assuming Mirk comes back strong, I think the Committee would take into consideration missing a key player in early season losses.
 
#181      
NarrowJ
Combo said:
I don't know what margin 35/65 translates to. But Duke will now be a heavy favorite in the game.

Assuming Mirk comes back strong, I think the Committee would take into consideration missing a key player in early season losses.
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Heavy as in 12-15 or more points? No

5-6 points? I think that's probably closer
 
#182      
wc_illini
wc_illini said:
That's how I saw it too.

But based on Torvik (doesn't account for this news), Duke would be favored by ~2.5, which corresponds to ~58-60% (between where you and NarrowJ had it). That passes the smell test when looking at the drop-off after #2 at sportsbooks (from before this news):

View attachment 51090
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...and I completely forgot home court advantage, which is usually ~3pts. If Duke would've been favored by 5.5 with us at full strength, that's more like 70%, which seems a bit high
 
#185      
EmeraldCityIllini
thing that scares me most about Mirk being out against top teams, is he’s so key to controlling our pace.

The games we lost were coincidentally games Mirk was bad, but because he was bad, he was out and the game became a lot more up and down - the bama game you could see in real time slipping.

Our guards this year are more capable of playing with pace, but also, I can see Vaaks and a freshmen getting way too sucked into it without david
 
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