David Mirkovic suffers left foot injury

#178      
Second place is 1st loser
lstewart53x3 said:
Not to fight his battles for him, but you literally said:

“WITH Mirk most of those games are 50/50 with Duke being 35/65”

So he was reply to WITH Mirk.
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Well....

UCONN at the UC,

Texas Tech on the road,

Duke on the road,

UNC neutral sight(if he's not back until 1/30, we have problems)

Mizzou neutral sight

Not sure which 2 December games are conference games. Can't really comment there(hopefully not MSU, MI, UCLA, USC aren't part of it)

Outside of Mizzou(and whatever two December conference games we play)....what's not a 50/50?

With regards to 65/35, Duke will be a favorite. I'm not breaking news on how good they are at home. They are very, very rarely not a legitimate favorite at home.

Brad put a monster schedule together and a lot of that was due to having a fully loaded roster. I think most of us would have felt great about .500 in those.

Now.......?
 
#179      
wc_illini
lstewart53x3 said:
Not to fight his battles for him, but you literally said:

“WITH Mirk most of those games are 50/50 with Duke being 35/65”

So he was reply to WITH Mirk.
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That's how I saw it too.

But based on Torvik (doesn't account for this news), Duke would be favored by ~2.5, which corresponds to ~58-60% (between where you and NarrowJ had it). That passes the smell test when looking at the drop-off after #2 at sportsbooks (from before this news):

1785957121111.png
 
#180      
Combo
Second place is 1st loser said:
I love your positivity here, but with the schedule that Brad put together, an 0-fer in those games would do a TON of damage. WITH Mirk most of those games are 50/50 with Duke being 35/65.

The silver lining for people getting more PT is true. That will help, but if go game by game now, depending on when he comes back..... we're looking at a double digit loss season. Again, the preconference is BRUTAL.

Let's hope it's November
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I don't know what margin 35/65 translates to. But Duke will now be a heavy favorite in the game.

Assuming Mirk comes back strong, I think the Committee would take into consideration missing a key player in early season losses.
 
#181      
NarrowJ
Combo said:
I don't know what margin 35/65 translates to. But Duke will now be a heavy favorite in the game.

Assuming Mirk comes back strong, I think the Committee would take into consideration missing a key player in early season losses.
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Heavy as in 12-15 or more points? No

5-6 points? I think that's probably closer
 
#182      
wc_illini
wc_illini said:
That's how I saw it too.

But based on Torvik (doesn't account for this news), Duke would be favored by ~2.5, which corresponds to ~58-60% (between where you and NarrowJ had it). That passes the smell test when looking at the drop-off after #2 at sportsbooks (from before this news):

View attachment 51090
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...and I completely forgot home court advantage, which is usually ~3pts. If Duke would've been favored by 5.5 with us at full strength, that's more like 70%, which seems a bit high
 
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