David Mirkovic suffers left foot injury

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#251      
the juiceman cometh
EmeraldCityIllini said:
Ha. Let’s put the ncaa’s “we take into account injuries” criteria to the test. In theory, they shouldn’t hold those losses against us if we do indeed lose

For what it’s worth, I’ve always hated this quirk in seeding by the NCAA- even if it could benefit us here
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Not sure it would even test that theory in this case. The non-conference schedule is so heavily weighted towards opponents that are either Q4 or Q1A, that I think it wouldn't make that much of an impact if they did consider it. The committee is not going to cut us a break for losing to Jackson St. with or without Mirk's injury. And if we lose a Q1A game like Duke, the committee is not going to hold it against us too much even if Mirk was there.

Also, some of the metrics used by the committee, particularly Torvik, aleady weight recency so that those early season games where we'd be missing Mirk would carry less importance. Recency also obviously impacts the subjective view that the committee members will have. If we struggle without Mirk and then dominate when he comes back it would be really hard to separate the impact of the injury and any consideration of that vs. the impact of the committee weighting recent performance over early season performance.

Where it would matter is if Mirk is still not back in time for conference play and we drop games to conference opponents we should be beating. Hopefully we don't have to test the theory under those circumstances.
 
#252      
EmeraldCityIllini
wc_illini said:
Do you hate it because it provides another opportunity for bias? Or something else?
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NCAA has done a ton of nefarious things, I don’t consider this one of them. I think it comes from a good place of trying to be fair to not only Illinois (in this case) but also their opponent.

But, you can just go down a rabbit hole of how much you want to apply that use case that ends up being so messy.

I used the Texas Tech example last year. Ok, you lowered Tech’s seeding due to Toppin’s injury, makes sense. But what about all the other results? Was our game against tech looked at less than at the end of the year, even though we played Tech when they were healthy?

And then you have the nonsense where teams lie about injuries until after seeding (Mikel Brown, McCullers) which defeats the purpose anyway
 
#253      
EmeraldCityIllini
the juiceman cometh said:
Not sure it would even test that theory in this case. The non-conference schedule is so heavily weighted towards opponents that are either Q4 or Q1A, that I think it wouldn't make that much of an impact if they did consider it. The committee is not going to cut us a break for losing to Jackson St. with or without Mirk's injury. And if we lose a Q1A game like Duke, the committee is not going to hold it against us too much even if Mirk was there.

Also, some of the metrics used by the committee, particularly Torvik, aleady weight recency so that those early season games where we'd be missing Mirk would carry less importance. Recency also obviously impacts the subjective view that the committee members will have. If we struggle without Mirk and then dominate when he comes back it would be really hard to separate the impact of the injury and any consideration of that vs. the impact of the committee weighting recent performance over early season performance.

Where it would matter is if Mirk is still not back in time for conference play and we drop games to conference opponents we should be beating. Hopefully we don't have to test the theory under those circumstances.
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Oddly enough, you pointing out you’re not even sure how it would factor in for us, is partly why I’m against it hah.

I agree with all your points
 
#254      
aaeismacgychel
rdk573 said:
Talking to a trainer (my personal trainer for what it is worth), even though he may start playing in November, the rule of thumb is for every week you are out injured add those total weeks to the time you start playing again before your at that the playing level before the injury...Out 3 months because of injury..Figure 6 months before Mirk is at playing at the level pre-injury..So we're talking probably February 2027 before he realistically is at 100%
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Broken foot injuries are interesting, so long as they are treated adequately and mobilized they can heal somewhat quickly. What would get me more nervous in this situation is that basketball is pretty high impact on the foot, so perfect world, you'd want the foot to be completely healed before going back to basketball activities, otherwise you start taking on more risk of it becoming a nagging injury. David also doesn't seem like the take it easy type.

Second part is that if the foot is fully mobilized for a couple months, flexibility of the foot and ankle is going to need time to recover. So if this is considered a 6-8 week injury, the more conservative insider estimates of 2027 may be more reasonable. Hoping for a much quicker full recovery though, obviously
 
#256      
wc_illini
EmeraldCityIllini said:
NCAA has done a ton of nefarious things, I don’t consider this one of them. I think it comes from a good place of trying to be fair to not only Illinois (in this case) but also their opponent.

But, you can just go down a rabbit hole of how much you want to apply that use case that ends up being so messy.

I used the Texas Tech example last year. Ok, you lowered Tech’s seeding due to Toppin’s injury, makes sense. But what about all the other results? Was our game against tech looked at less than at the end of the year, even though we played Tech when they were healthy?

And then you have the nonsense where teams lie about injuries until after seeding (Mikel Brown, McCullers) which defeats the purpose anyway
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Yeah, if it didn't create unfairness for tournament opponents, it would be easiest to ignore injuries. EvanMiya's system is an interesting approach (he essentially rates players/lineups, not teams, so he can model the impact of a player being out), but I have no way of knowing how well it works.

And lying about injuries before selection is the worst. They should probably assume anyone who doesn't play at the end of the season is out for the tournament, though if the player actually does return, then their opponents get a raw deal. So I guess I can see the argument that overseeding a team negatively affects a few teams very slightly, while underseeding a team affects their opponents significantly, and maybe that's a bigger deal.
 
#261      
Second place is 1st loser
We have all of these predictions......do we know what the injury actually is? Why the need for surgery? That will tell the story.

Not too many standard broken bones create the need for surgery. It's an "ouch, this sucks" injury and some heal more quickly than other ordeal. That's kind of the boat that Kylan was in last year.

If we're talking 2027, that's a 6 month recovery(from surgery to playing).

If we're talking about displaced fractures, or torn tendons and ligaments.....that's a totally different ordeal. That can literally take 12 months to recover. 3 to 6 months for solid strength; up to 12 months for full function.

Until someone (Brad) comes out and tells us what it is....."out indefinitely" suggests the latter.
 
#262      
Second place is 1st loser
lstewart53x3 said:
Not to fight his battles for him, but you literally said:

“WITH Mirk most of those games are 50/50 with Duke being 35/65”

So he was reply to WITH Mirk.
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Well....

UCONN at the UC,

Texas Tech on the road,

Duke on the road,

UNC neutral sight(if he's not back until 1/30, we have problems)

Mizzou neutral sight

Not sure which 2 December games are conference games. Can't really comment there(hopefully not MSU, MI, UCLA, USC aren't part of it)

Outside of Mizzou(and whatever two December conference games we play)....what's not a 50/50?

With regards to 65/35, Duke will be a favorite. I'm not breaking news on how good they are at home. They are very, very rarely not a legitimate favorite at home.

Brad put a monster schedule together and a lot of that was due to having a fully loaded roster. I think most of us would have felt great about .500 in those.

Now.......?
 
#263      
wc_illini
lstewart53x3 said:
Not to fight his battles for him, but you literally said:

“WITH Mirk most of those games are 50/50 with Duke being 35/65”

So he was reply to WITH Mirk.
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That's how I saw it too.

But based on Torvik (doesn't account for this news), Duke would be favored by ~2.5, which corresponds to ~58-60% (between where you and NarrowJ had it). That passes the smell test when looking at the drop-off after #2 at sportsbooks (from before this news):

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#264      
Combo
Second place is 1st loser said:
I love your positivity here, but with the schedule that Brad put together, an 0-fer in those games would do a TON of damage. WITH Mirk most of those games are 50/50 with Duke being 35/65.

The silver lining for people getting more PT is true. That will help, but if go game by game now, depending on when he comes back..... we're looking at a double digit loss season. Again, the preconference is BRUTAL.

Let's hope it's November
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I don't know what margin 35/65 translates to. But Duke will now be a heavy favorite in the game.

Assuming Mirk comes back strong, I think the Committee would take into consideration missing a key player in early season losses.
 
#265      
NarrowJ
Combo said:
I don't know what margin 35/65 translates to. But Duke will now be a heavy favorite in the game.

Assuming Mirk comes back strong, I think the Committee would take into consideration missing a key player in early season losses.
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Heavy as in 12-15 or more points? No

5-6 points? I think that's probably closer
 
#266      
JKR
dem bones will heal faster with round the clock cottage cheese poultices
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Do we know that it's a bone?
 
#267      
wc_illini
wc_illini said:
That's how I saw it too.

But based on Torvik (doesn't account for this news), Duke would be favored by ~2.5, which corresponds to ~58-60% (between where you and NarrowJ had it). That passes the smell test when looking at the drop-off after #2 at sportsbooks (from before this news):

View attachment 51090
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...and I completely forgot home court advantage, which is usually ~3pts. If Duke would've been favored by 5.5 with us at full strength, that's more like 70%, which seems a bit high
 
#269      
I-L-L 1318
6-8 weeks for the bone to heal.
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It’s simple…we just need them to design another cast that cuts the time in half like we did for that one guy we don’t speak of /s
 
#270      
Rap47
How can any of you know how long he is going to be out without knowing what bone he broke? I would assume the insiders have this information and they say 6 to 8 wks. If that is correct he should be fine by November.
 
#272      
EmeraldCityIllini
thing that scares me most about Mirk being out against top teams, is he’s so key to controlling our pace.

The games we lost were coincidentally games Mirk was bad, but because he was bad, he was out and the game became a lot more up and down - the bama game you could see in real time slipping.

Our guards this year are more capable of playing with pace, but also, I can see Vaaks and a freshmen getting way too sucked into it without david
 
#273      
Fly Illini Fly!
Second place is 1st loser said:
I love your positivity here, but with the schedule that Brad put together, an 0-fer in those games would do a TON of damage. WITH Mirk most of those games are 50/50 with Duke being 35/65.
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I would agree with this.

A lot is made about "losing those games won't hurt us" in the seeding. However, WINNING those games would really help us.

So, taking Mirk off our roster, quite possibly strips us of a few WINS we would've had otherwise.
sharpshot16 said:
For the next 6-8 weeks he will be in a boot then it will come off...and he can start low impact. Staff will ease him back in and we will see how his conditioning is at that point.

The game I am circling is the UConn game December 4th.
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Yes, I'd hope at worst he's back by UCONN.

If we can beat Texas Tech, that'd be very good.

Duke -- it was always going to be EXTREMELY difficult, even with Mirk. Winning that one has never been my expectation as Duke should be big favorites at home (though it COULD happen, as Florida nearly won there last year).
 
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