So at the beginning of the year I said that we would be good, and there were about 7 things that could happen for us to be great, and we only needed 2-3 to hit. Here is where I think we are at:
1. Kofi takes a step forward - I think this has happened. With his passing, free throw shooting, and just overall feel for the game he looks more like a basketball player and not just a big dude out there.
2. Belo takes a step forward- obviously a no and I do think his absence has really set us back.
3. Plummer is an upgrade in the Ace role- this one is a little tougher. Obviously far ahead of Ace offensively and way ahead as a shooter, but well behind Ace defensively especially towards the end of last year. I do think he’s improving defensively and this can be a yes by year end but right now I will say incomplete, but trending yes.
4. Hutch is a contributor- obviously a no and just terrible luck.
5. Payne is an upgrade over Giorgi- this is a no. Payne is an upgrade on defense, but I always felt like Giorgi was a better defender than he got credit for and we do miss his offense. Still time for the lightbulb to come on for Payne though and I do think having Belo out has hurt his offense.
6. One of the frosh makes the rotation - still a no. Goode looks to be on the verge but for whatever reason BU doesn’t trust him yet. RJ has also shown flashes.
7. Coleman takes a step forward- not yet. Has shown flashes but too inconsistent and mistake prone. I feel like his career has been very similar to Griffin’s so far. Play sparingly as a frosh, play really well against low majors as a soph but struggles on big stage, and struggles defensively. The light bulb did come on for Griffin against HM competition right around the Wisconsin game and from then on he was probably our most consistent shooter. Coleman has been really good defensively in 2 of the last 3 games. I’m hoping with a little more practice he can figure out his role on offense and the light bulb will come on sometime in conference play.
So, not surprisingly we are behind where I hoped we would be, but a combination of injuries and illness have really hurt us. Still think there’s a chance we hit on a couple of the above and if that happens and we even get frosh Belo back think we will be really dangerous. My prediction of most likely to click from above:
1. Plummer surpasses Ace- probably already has but just want a little more defensively which I think is coming.
2. Frosh makes the rotation - Thinking Goode will be getting ~12mpg by March
3. Coleman takes a step forward - needs some consistency and confidence, hopefully will come with more practice and a few games against lesser competition (Tubelis was a beast).
4. Payne is an upgrade over Giorgi- just haven’t seen enough.
5. Belo takes a step- realistically think injury will have just put him too far behind to make the leap I was hoping for. At this point would be thrilled just to have frosh level Belo and I think we will be great.
Sorry for the long post. But just wanted to share my thoughts. Feel like it’s been more bad luck than anything that’s held is back so far and still think we have a great chance to win the BIG and go on a run in March. Go Illini!
This is really good and thought out. Can I offer my opinions on a couple?
1. Absolutely Kofi looks better, more dominant this year. Look out, Big Ten.
2. With injury problems, not yet. Could be a yes come Jan-Feb.
3. I agree with everything you said. Spot on. Defensive intensity needs to get better. BU is the guy to do it if its possible for a Senior to take a "defensive leap". But Ace/Plummer is a wash for me right now. We wouldn't be looking at a 7-3 team without plummer, but I can't say if we would be 7-3 if we had Ace. An impossible question, i suppose.
4 and 5. Sadly no, and will NOT happen, I imagine. I'd say Payne is not even close to equal Giorgi, especially when you add in attitude, teamwork and locker room energy.
6. Agree totally. When Goode is out there, I'm usually impressed by his defense. That's how you get minutes with BU. This will be a yes come March
7. Coleman is so hard. He looked like he already made it in games 1-3, but now with Kofi as the focus, he has yet to continue his progress. That concerns me. Dude is a baller and I think it will come if not this year, then next year.
So we are looking at like... 1.75 things happening so far? Haha with potential to top out at 5 of your 7 points later in the season.
Go illini!
*neigh*