Illini Basketball 2023-2024

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#51      
Having been a fan through all those coaches, I don't really like seeing coaches getting credit for prior teams when looking back at history and trying to make judgments. Maybe in the current era, a coach can turn around a team in a single season, but if you look at how a coach inherited a team, it distorts those stats considerably. In particular, Kruger built what Self inherited, and Weber inherited what Self built. On the flip side, Underwood inherited a mess.

On both points, though, I agree. Adding schools makes it much tougher, and most years Illinois is expected to be in the mix.
Underwood inherited close to CELLAR DWELLER. Not the case with SELF or WEBER.
 
#56      
Sooooo ready for hoops season! I am going to try to be a much more grateful fan this season ... we'll see how long it lasts, haha. However, this football season has made me appreciate how relatively spoiled Illini basketball fans have been over the years. Since Underwood dug himself out of the hole Groce made for him (i.e., starting in the 2019-20 season), the season we all billed as a catastrophic failure that caused Brad's seat to get warmer and all of us to go into freakout mode was spending some time in the top 25, finishing in the middle of the conference standings and losing the first round of the NCAA Tournament. Meanwhile, if this year's football team were able to slip into the rankings even once and then scratch and claw our way to 7-5 or so, it'd be a clear success, IMO.

I'm thankful for the relatively low floor basketball has (usually) built for itself historically! And now we are likely to enter the season in the preseason top 25 for the fourth straight season. Let's do this!
Piggybacking off of this post of mine, I got to thinking about two interesting and related questions:

1. With hoops having a one-and-done tournament for its postseason vs. the bowl setup of college football, it's kind of impossible to compare whole seasons for football vs. basketball. However, how would you compare regular seasons for both?
2. If college basketball had a version of college football's bowl setup and eventually a 12-team playoff, just how much better would Illinois' history be?! We have been upset many times in the early rounds of March Madness with some very good teams ... what happens if you plop them into the Elite Eight on day one??

Regarding the first one, I tried to come up with a general comparison of our last four basketball seasons with a hypothetical football equivalent ... it's not perfect by any means, but imagine if Illinois football had this track record since 2019-20 and how happy we would be. Again, this is a rough try at coming up with a mirror image of our last four basketball seasons with "football versions," haha (and ignoring COVID).

2019: 8-4 (6-3). AP #23. Finished second in the Big Ten West. Citrus Bowl.
2020: 10-2 (8-1). AP #2. Big Ten champions. College Football Playoff.
2021:
8-4 (7-2). AP #16. Lost in the Big Ten Championship Game. Rose Bowl.
--- Crazy roster turnover ---
2022: 7-5 (5-4). Not ranked. Finished third in Big Ten West. Music City Bowl.

In the mirror scenario with basketball, we would have fans turning on Bielema after a 7-5 rebuilding campaign. :ROFLMAO: :ROFLMAO: NOW, of course ... the big difference is that basketball has March Madness, where you win or go home. Underwood has only gone home, unfortunately. :cry: The moral of the story here, I guess, is that our basketball program has put together regular season results comparable to a football program like Penn State ... and postseason results comparable to a football program like Minnesota. Unlike in football, in basketball you more or less have two separate seasons ... and you HAVE to show up for the second one (the NCAA Tournament), or the first part feels kind of hollow and pointless after a while!
 
#58      
I hope all you Ty at point guard haters on here have the guts to admit you are wrong when he turns out good.
Not a Ty hater, but I do think that him as the primary PG is not likely to work. I would be extremely happy to be wrong though!
 
#59      

Joel Goodson

respect my decision™
if Ty's FT percentage is still an issue (FWLIW, I expect it to improve markedly), close games with Hawkins, Harmon, Domask, Shannon, Goode (aggregate 77.5 FT%). If you’re worried about ball handling, put DGL in.
 
#60      
I finally understand the association between Kool-Aid and Illinios fans. Drinking lots of Kool-Aid makes you ILL.
Have you ever read other boards? We easily have the smallest percentage of our fans who fall into the "homer" camp, IMO ... especially for when you adjust for how good we have been vs. other programs. I would argue we have one of the most inherently pessimistic basketball fan bases in the conference, whereas the results on the floor should theoretically make us one of the most optimistic fan bases.
 
#61      
My point about Ty at point guard is let it play out and see the results before you say how bad he is going to be. People on this site rip Underwood for people transferring, these kids can see all the negative posts about themselves. We ha e a lot of good fans but we also have our share of bad ones.
 
#62      

Philly Boy

Deerfield IL
I want to get all of our BIG10+ games but am having a devil of a time registering to do so. I can't seem to start a new subscription from scratch, or re-set a password on the old account I used last year. When I try to do it the website keeps saying they'll send me an email but nothing appears there. I can't find any phone # that works --an automated voice just refers me to a Q & A page that doesn't help. Can anyone help at all? First game is oct 20.
 
#64      
This team is going to be really good, there is a lot more confidence in that room/offices than there was going into last year. Deeper, better shooting, even better defensively and rebounding wise. Gonna be a fun year, hope we can finally get to the second weekend
 
#66      
To further your point, here are the hit rates of our past several coaches in terms of a Top 4 B10 finish and a B10 championship:
Underwood: Top 4 (3 of 6 - 50%) Champ (1 of 6 - 17%)
Groce: Top 4 (0 of 5 - 0%) Champ (0 of 5 - 0%)
Weber: Top 4 (6 of 9 - 67%) Champ (2 of 9 - 22%)
Self: Top 4 (3 of 3 - 100%) Champ (2 of 3 - 67%)
Kruger: Top 4 (3 of 4 - 75%) Champ (1 of 4 - 25%)

So if we exclude Groce, who was clearly a poor hire, in the 16 seasons prior to Groce, the combined trio of Kruger-Self-Weber had a Top 4 in B10 hit rate of 12 in 16 (75%) and a B10 Champ hit rate of 5 in 16 (31%). Underwood started with a much lower floor than those coach and so if you omit his first 2 years as Groce adjacent, he's basically right on that average.

Overall, the expectation that we finish in the Top 4 of the B10 each season and compete for a B10 championship year in and year out is fairly justified by the numbers. Basically 3 out of every 4 years we should be a Top 4 B10 team and we should win a B10 Championship at least 1 out of every 4 years. That's pretty much program standard. This isn't our football team where saying "I expect a Top 4 finish in B10 play" is wonderful to desire but just isn't supported in any way by our past 25years of play. It's our basketball team, which over the past 25 seasons, Groce excluded, has pretty much shown that desiring a B10 title contender most seasons should be the standard. When you have sustained success, the bar for your program should be much higher than a program with average or no success.

So, just to summarize, unless you are a fan who thinks our basketball team under Groce is a more representative sample of Illinois basketball than Kruger-Self-Weber-Underwood, then your expectation should be competing for B10 titles and Top 4 conference finishes year in and year out, because that's what those coaches have delivered.
So you take the best 16 year period of Illinois basketball (and that was really the work of 2 coaches over a 7 year period who left for greener pastures at the first opportunity), out of its 117 year history and that is the standard for Illinois basketball.
We have won 8 championships in the last 70 years - that is about 1 in 9 not even remotely close to 1 in 4, nor sustained success as you claim. Lou Henson, that guy with his name on the court at State Farm Center, won 1 conference championship. He also only made the tourney 12 of 21 years and lost the first game in 5 of those 12 years. In his defense the field was 32 in 1975, 40 in 1979, 48 in 1980 and then expanded to 64 in 1985 - he made 2 tourneys with the field at 48, the rest when it was 64.
So again, your standard is one which no B1G team meets in the present era. It is a standard which we only met for a very brief period in our history. Hope you can enjoy being an unhappy fan because if you are a long term fan of the Illini, you will be most of the time given your standards.
If you are young, I forgive you, but I have been following the Illini since Harry Combes was the coach. If we play well enough to make the tourney, I consider it a successful season, anything more is gravy for me.
 
#68      
Yet no one thinks we will be terrible.

If said person exists, I would live for them to go on record as saying that this years team will be terrible.

Again, obviously false if you follow this message board at all.

Lets agree to disagree, though. Not a subject that needs a lot of back & forth. We have actual basketball to talk about now that practice has actually started and we have an exhibition game in 10 days.
 
#69      
Being concerned about certain aspects of our roster and saying we will be terrible are two very different things.

Agree, they are, and there's been a whole lot of both. Who cares. Let's play basketball.
 
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#71      
This team is going to be really good, there is a lot more confidence in that room/offices than there was going into last year. Deeper, better shooting, even better defensively and rebounding wise. Gonna be a fun year, hope we can finally get to the second weekend
Still serious questions at PG and playmaking more generally. That said, the other team has to score on us too. And I think we will bludgeon people with our length, physicality, defense, rebounding and 2 point offense.

I think a big key will to keep from beating ourselves. We made too many mistakes defensively last year, shot way too many 3s and turned it over too much.

Think our experience will negate alot of the defensive mistakes, as all as attitude/effort more generally. If we can keep 3 point attempts to about 20 a game and turnovers around 13, we will be hard to beat.
 
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#72      
Frankly, having seen a lot of what Underwood called 'elite' last year, the fact that he is calling our point guard situation 'good' terrifies me.
He lost out on all his point guard targets. So now he moves to, putting lip stick on a pig. I will not buy it. Until I see success. Quite frankly, I feel this is going to crush an opportunity at an awesome season. Ty Rodgers is a freaking stud Power forward, not a darn pt. Guard!
 
#73      
All Good Pts .. I think 10 or less on the TO's will should be the benchmark.... Reality Wisconsin avgs 10 or less every year. I would like to add 25 FT attempts per/ game !!!! If we live in the Paint we can win 25 games
 
#74      
This team is going to be really good, there is a lot more confidence in that room/offices than there was going into last year. Deeper, better shooting, even better defensively and rebounding wise. Gonna be a fun year, hope we can finally get to the second weekend
Yeah the defensive potential is really exciting. I hope the offensive identity and shooting end up thriving, but at the very least we should be able to win some games with our defense.

Starting lineup of Ty (6’6), TJ (6’6), Domask (6’6), Coleman (6’10) and either Dain (6’9) or Guerrier (6’8) is going to be super tough defensively, and Sencire will come in and wreak havoc off the bench as well.
 
#75      
Still serious questions at PG and playmaking more generally. That said, the other team has to score on us too. And I think we will bludgeon people with our length, physicality, defense, rebounding and 2 point offense.

I think a big key will to keep from beating ourselves. We made too many mistakes defensively last year, shot way too many 3s and turned it over too much.

Think our experience will negate alot of the defensive mistakes, as all as attitude/effort more generally. If we can keep 3 point attempts to about 20 a game and turnovers around 13, we will be hard to beat.
This is where I'm at. The flow on offense might be a bit intermittent, but I expect these guys to compete their tails of on defense. We've got grown men all over the court. We won't get pushed around often and (presuming we are healthy) we will have great depth to wear down other teams. It won't always be pretty, but I think we will enjoy the result.
 
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