Illini Basketball 2023-2024

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#276      
RockfordIllini
Been thinking more and more that this team’s ceiling is quite high, particularly when compared to last year’s team.

Last year’s team had a super high ceiling as evidenced by our 2 non con wins, which were probably the 2 best non con wins of the BU era. Unfortunately the team never put it together and although it didn’t quite implode, it was dysfunctional and didn’t reach its ceiling.

This year we essentially swap out Domask for Mayer and Guerrier for RJ as rotation pieces.

Mayer was all conference and we don’t make the tourney without him, but certainly took plays off and did a lot of hero ball. Domask should be steadier and a better playmaker. Mayer has the higher ceiling, Domask may be the better CBB player.

Guerrier is a proven 10/5 and 35% 3pt shooting at the P5 level. I think that’s more or less what we were hoping RJ would jump to in his soph season and whether because of injury or confidence, he just didn’t get there. Should get a bump from that rotation spot.

We have Luke this year which will help with shooting, one of last year’s teams shortcomings.

Biggest question mark last year and this year is of course PG. Last year we were hoping 2 highly rated frosh could hold it down. This year we are hoping for Ty who is a soph but has never played PG at this level before. But we should have good secondary playmakers such that I think we just need Ty to be a replacement level BIG PG, something like maybe 7 pts, 2.5ish assists, 5 rebounds (Ty will board) and a positive A/TO ratio. But offensive questions aside, we should be much better defensively with a sophomore who is a proven plus defender vs 2 frosh who often made mistakes.

And that’s not taking into account Harmon and Dain as a depth pieces and assuming we get nothing out of Sencire or the frosh.

Think this team has just as a high a ceiling and a higher floor than last years team. Can’t wait to watch them play.
 
#277      
lstewart53x3
Calvin said:
Are we going to see Hawkins and Dain on the floor together? I expect those two to cover the center position and not to play together unless. Makes me wonder how we'll deal with Purdue --tallest guy on the roster is Hawkins.
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Last year, Dani got 20.5 minutes per game and Coleman played 32.5 minutes per game. So I could see them playing 10-15 minutes per game together.
 
#278      
iron
Calvin said:
Are we going to see Hawkins and Dain on the floor together? I expect those two to cover the center position and not to play together unless. Makes me wonder how we'll deal with Purdue --tallest guy on the roster is Hawkins.
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Yes, Coleman will play the 4 every single game to some degree or another
 
#279      
NarrowJ
I think I have to agree about the ceiling being higher this year.

We also lacked a PG last year. Unless you mean the guy that averaged 9 points 1 assist and shot well under 30% from 3pt range during the conf season and also was a turnstile on defense. Or, the guy who quit the team in December. Ty was already playing a lot of PG for us late in the season.

Also agree with the notion that we basically replace Mayer/RJ with Domask/Guerrier at F and then Epps/Clark with Harmon/DGL at G (and then taking into account everyone else is a year more experienced). The roster is much improved this year, imo.
 
#280      
aaeismacgychel
Decided to have some fun and do some probabilistic stats based off of kenpom's preseason projections to determine our projected regular season record:

31-0: 7 in 10million (we've got a chance)
.
.
28-3: 0.10%
27-4: 0.43%
26-5: 1.4%
25-6: 3.6%
24-7: 7.2%
23-8: 11.8%
22-9: 15.7%
21-10: 17.2%
20-11: 15.8%
19-12: 12.1%
18-13: 7.7%
17-14: 4.1%
16-13: 1.9%
15-14: 0.69%
14-15: 0.21%
.
So, for the confidence interval crowd, based on kenpom's projections, 19-12 to 23-8 is likely (incorporates 72.5% of possibilities) with 21 wins being the median.

In non-con, we have a projected 5.5% chance of going undefeated

And in the B10, we have a projected 1 in 100,000 chance of going undefeated according to kenpom.
 
#281      
LvilleILL
aaeismacgychel said:
Decided to have some fun and do some probabilistic stats based off of kenpom's preseason projections to determine our projected regular season record:

31-0: 7 in 10million (we've got a chance)
.
.
28-3: 0.10%
27-4: 0.43%
26-5: 1.4%
25-6: 3.6%
24-7: 7.2%
23-8: 11.8%
22-9: 15.7%
21-10: 17.2%
20-11: 15.8%
19-12: 12.1%
18-13: 7.7%
17-14: 4.1%
16-13: 1.9%
15-14: 0.69%
14-15: 0.21%
.
So, for the confidence interval crowd, based on kenpom's projections, 19-12 to 23-8 is likely (incorporates 72.5% of possibilities) with 21 wins being the median.

In non-con, we have a projected 5.5% chance of going undefeated

And in the B10, we have a projected 1 in 100,000 chance of going undefeated according to kenpom.
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Based on what I have heard, 21-10 to 24-7 is about what we should expect this year. Team is going to be very good, just a tough schedule. Should be looking at a good seed and hopefully a S16
 
#282      
aaeismacgychel
LvilleILL said:
Based on what I have heard, 21-10 to 24-7 is about what we should expect this year. Team is going to be very good, just a tough schedule. Should be looking at a good seed and hopefully a S16
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I would certainly take that kind of season. No complaints from me if it happens, that's for sure
 
#283      
HailtotheChief
iron said:
A Sports Illustrated writer is saying that a person in the program is saying that Domask is clearly our second best player.

I didn't call it or anything but I was definitely hoping this would be the word. I think him being good allows Shannon to do a lot more off the ball and will make Shannon better overall, same for Hawkins.

In a perfect world Ty Rodgers or DGL is our second best player but I don't think that's realistic. So Domask being unexpectedly very good is a win for me
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I feel one reason BU wanted our squad to be "old" is because talented, older, experienced players typically play better and are better players. I love that Domask is very good but not our Alpha, TSJ is. That should lead for the more success for Domask. TSJ or others may open it up for the former 1st team All Valley forward. That hasnt been the case for the proven player for a while.. I expect and hope that most of our most talented players are the experienced leaders. TSJ, Domask, Hawkins and Dain are who I expect to be our best players. I certainly want the younger talented players to push and challenge our older guys but I kind of feel one reason BU likes experienced guys is because they are better prepared to succeed and lead younger ones. Hopefully, as the season rolls of DGL, Ty, or other PGs will thrive with more experience.
 
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#284      
HailtotheChief
cjw1901 said:
Right, it would be great if Domask unexpectedly very well. But, when we carefully checked the numbers from last season, Domask shot worse percentagewise than Goode in every category (2s, 3s, and FT), and Domask had lower rates of blocks per min played and rebounds per min played. Domask's only advantages over Goode based on last season's stats were in assists per min played and steals per min played.

In other words, until his "unexpectedly very good" play, outperforms Goode, then, at least in my opinion, Domask doesn't yet deserve a starting role and any extra mins that go with that over Luke Goode.

But, sure, I hope Domask plays great too. I hope they all do!
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At SIU Domask was the focus of his opponents defenses to try to slow down. With all due respect to Luke, he has not had to deal with that since high school since as an Illini he has had some All Americans and others the opposition was keying in on. I am unsure who is better yet but I expect its Domask. BU will make that choice but I expect Domask to get some much better looks with teammates like TSJ, Dain, and others he has around him now than he did at SIU where he was the key guy teams were trying to stop.
 
#286      
Ransom Stoddard
Dan said:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1714711116935221443
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This makes me very unhappy. Taking a charge (an actual charge) is IMO the epitome of solid defense--being where the offensive player is going and stopping them from getting there. These new changes have me thinking that the number of offensive players doing everything they can to initiate contact is going to increase, resulting in tons of whistles, a slower game, and players being punished for trying to play defense.

Bad move, NCAA, bad move.
 
#287      
21ChampaignSt
Ransom Stoddard said:
This makes me very unhappy. Taking a charge (an actual charge) is IMO the epitome of solid defense--being where the offensive player is going and stopping them from getting there. These new changes have me thinking that the number of offensive players doing everything they can to initiate contact is going to increase, resulting in tons of whistles, a slower game, and players being punished for trying to play defense.

Bad move, NCAA, bad move.
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I agree that taking a charge is the defensive equivalent of a slam dunk.

Too often though, defensive players get rewarded for being out of position and sliding in front of an offensive player who has already picked up their dribble and committed to their lane. To me, that doesn't actually constitute beating your man to a spot. No idea if the new rules address this, but the block charge call has been broken and needing fixed for a while, imo.
 
#288      
thefalcon5
Ransom Stoddard said:
This makes me very unhappy. Taking a charge (an actual charge) is IMO the epitome of solid defense--being where the offensive player is going and stopping them from getting there. These new changes have me thinking that the number of offensive players doing everything they can to initiate contact is going to increase, resulting in tons of whistles, a slower game, and players being punished for trying to play defense.

Bad move, NCAA, bad move.
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Watching a guy take a charge, especially in a huge moment, is one of the best experiences in college basketball.

I’m almost always about increasing scoring in every game, because points/goals/whatever make the game more fun to watch. This however is an exception.
 
#289      
Emerson Bigguns
Ransom Stoddard said:
This makes me very unhappy. Taking a charge (an actual charge) is IMO the epitome of solid defense--being where the offensive player is going and stopping them from getting there. These new changes have me thinking that the number of offensive players doing everything they can to initiate contact is going to increase, resulting in tons of whistles, a slower game, and players being punished for trying to play defense.

Bad move, NCAA, bad move.
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The good news is that our best player is at his best hurling himself toward the rim. He's going to get to the line often.
 
#290      
DAM1298
thefalcon5 said:
Watching a guy take a charge, especially in a huge moment, is one of the best experiences in college basketball.

I’m almost always about increasing scoring in every game, because points/goals/whatever make the game more fun to watch. This however is an exception.
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Strong disagree. Play actual defense. Hate the cop out of “I can’t guard you so I’m gonna stand here and fall on my !!! while I get steamrolled.”

The acceptance of the charge is what leads to the flopping epidemic.
 
#291      
DAM1298
Ransom Stoddard said:
This makes me very unhappy. Taking a charge (an actual charge) is IMO the epitome of solid defense--being where the offensive player is going and stopping them from getting there. These new changes have me thinking that the number of offensive players doing everything they can to initiate contact is going to increase, resulting in tons of whistles, a slower game, and players being punished for trying to play defense.

Bad move, NCAA, bad move.
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Man idk. If you get to the spot, jump straight up and contest the shot without fouling. To me, that’s solid defense, not getting run over.
 
#293      
Ransom Stoddard
DAM1298 said:
Man idk. If you get to the spot, jump straight up and contest the shot without fouling. To me, that’s solid defense, not getting run over.
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The whole point of the charging call is that the defender has the right to establish position on the floor. The rules have always been very clear about when position is established and when it isn't. The goal isn't to get run over, it's to prevent the offensive player from using your established position on the floor.

Every coach I ever had, I've ever listened to, or ever read has preached the importance of establishing defensive position--not trying to defend a shooter in the air. It's a basketball fundamental, but the NCAA is taking the path of least resistance to the increase in flopping rather than training refs better in what's a charge vs a block, and what's a flop vs natural movement after contact.
 
#295      
Fighter of the Nightman
Alright, here is my first shot! I first want to say that three top 10 opponents before December 10th is both incredibly daunting and incredibly exciting. Toss in a road game at Rutgers (incredibly difficult place to play) and an always-tough Braggin' Rights matchup, and our schedule before 2024 starts will be a gauntlet. I am pumped!

W vs. Eastern Illinois
W vs. Oakland
L vs. #5 Marquette - However, it is an incredibly encouraging effort.
W vs. Valparaiso
W vs. Southern
W vs. Western Illinois
L at Rutgers - PG play dooms us in a close game, and people start to absolutely freak out...
W vs. #10 FAU (New York, NY) - Solid bounce back game.
L at #9 Tennessee - In a game similar to last year's Maryland game, we look great for most of it but simply can't execute when it counts.
W vs. Colgate
W vs. Missouri (St. Louis, MO) - One of the closest Braggin' Rights Games in years, but we get revenge.
W vs. Fairleigh Dickinson
W vs. Northwestern
L at #3 Purdue - A horrendous "blocking" call late costs us the upset.
L vs. #4 Michigan State - Unfortunately, we see similar issues as last year and people REALLY start to freak out as we sit at 10-5 (1-3)...
W vs. Maryland - Solid win vs. what I predict will be a ranked Maryland team that helps calm our fans down.
W at Michigan - We continue to own Juwan.
W vs. Rutgers - Revenge comes in the form of a beatdown.
W at Northwestern - In front of a 70/30 Illini crowd.
W vs. Indiana - In a game similar to Wisconsin at home last year, Coleman goes off.
W at Ohio State - We win in a similar fashion to our 10-point victory in Madison last year.
W vs. Nebraska
W at #4 Michigan State - NOW we are pumped again! Our signature win of the year.
W vs. Michigan - We pummel them, and at 19-5 (10-3), we are feeling on top of the world.
L at Maryland - Back down to Earth at our house of horrors...
W at Penn State - FINALLY beat these guys again.
W vs. Iowa - Way closer than it should be, and we win by one in a thriller.
W vs. Minnesota
L at Wisconsin - A sluggish road letdown reminiscent of our loss in Columbus last year where we just can't ever get it going ... it happens from time to time!
W vs. #3 Purdue - Our best game of the year, and TSJ absolutely shines, showing he is a future pro. We dream of another Big Ten banner!
L at Iowa - We lose in a VERY similar fashion to last year's game in Iowa City (i.e., a wonderful basketball game, hard-fought by both sides and we simply come up short).

Heading into the BTT, we stand at 23-8 (14-6), ONE game shy of another Big Ten title, making the heartbreaking loss in Iowa City sting that much more. We rematch with Iowa in the BTT quarterfinals and beat them, going on to beat Maryland in the semifinals. We fall to Michigan State in the final, but everyone is happy and ready for March Madness.

Heading into Selection Sunday, we are 25-9 and earn the last #3 seed because the computers love us this year, especially our SOS and nice group of road/neutral wins. However, our fans complain and think we are cursed, as the Committee gave us an especially difficult and storyline-filled path. We play #6 seed Auburn in the Second Round and FINALLY look like we came to play for March Madness, winning by 10+ and looking good doing it ... we are FINALLY in the Sweet Sixteen! We go on to beat #2 seed Marquette in a rematch and make it to the Elite Eight. In a similar style to our 2004 squad losing to Duke, however, we just look outgunned and tired vs. #1 seed Kansas (of course, lol...), ending our season at 28-10 and soothing everyone's worries about our postseason record. Recruiting picks up significantly.

Sound good? :cool:
 
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#296      
Govoner Vaugn Fan
Fighter of the Nightman said:
Alright, here is my first shot! I first want to say that three top 10 opponents before December 10th is both incredibly daunting and incredibly exciting. Toss in a road game at Rutgers (incredibly difficult place to play) and an always-tough Braggin' Rights matchup, and our schedule before 2024 starts will be a gauntlet. I am pumped!

W vs. Eastern Illinois
W vs. Oakland
L vs. #5 Marquette - However, it is an incredibly encouraging effort.
W vs. Valparaiso
W vs. Southern
W vs. Western Illinois
L at Rutgers - PG play dooms us in a close game, and people start to absolutely freak out...
W vs. #10 FAU (New York, NY) - Solid bounce back game.
L at #9 Tennessee - In a game similar to last year's Maryland game, we look great for most of it but simply can't execute when it counts.
W vs. Colgate
W vs. Missouri (St. Louis, MO) - One of the closest Braggin' Rights Games in years, but we get revenge.
W vs. Fairleigh Dickinson
W vs. Northwestern
L at #3 Purdue - A horrendous "blocking" call late costs us the upset.
L vs. #4 Michigan State - Unfortunately, we see similar issues as last year and people REALLY start to freak out as we sit at 10-5 (1-3)...
W vs. Maryland - Solid win vs. what I predict will be a ranked Maryland team that helps calm our fans down.
W at Michigan - We continue to own Juwan.
W vs. Rutgers - Revenge comes in the form of a beatdown.
W at Northwestern - In front of a 70/30 Illini crowd.
W vs. Indiana - In a game similar to Wisconsin at home last year, Coleman goes off.
W at Ohio State - We win in a similar fashion to our 10-point victory in Madison last year.
W vs. Nebraska
W at #4 Michigan State - NOW we are pumped again! Our signature win of the year.
W vs. Michigan - We pummel them, and at 19-5 (10-3), we are feeling on top of the world.
L at Maryland - Back down to Earth at our house of horrors...
W at Penn State - FINALLY beat these guys again.
W vs. Iowa - Way closer than it should be, and we win by one in a thriller.
W vs. Minnesota
L at Wisconsin - A sluggish road letdown reminiscent of our loss in Columbus last year where we just can't ever get it going ... it happens from time to time!
W vs. #3 Purdue - Our best game of the year, and TSJ absolutely shines, showing he is a future pro. We dream of another Big Ten banner!
L at Iowa - We lose in a VERY similar fashion to last year's game in Iowa City (i.e., a wonderful basketball game, hard-fought by both sides and we simply come up short).

Heading into the BTT, we stand at 23-8 (14-6), ONE game shy of another Big Ten title, making the heartbreaking loss in Iowa City sting that much more. We rematch with Iowa in the BTT quarterfinals and beat them, going on to beat Maryland in the semifinals. We fall to Michigan State in the final, but everyone is happy and ready for March Madness.

Heading into Selection Sunday, we are 25-9 and earn the last #3 seed because the computers love us this year, especially our SOS and nice group of road/neutral wins. However, our fans complain and think we are cursed, as the Committee gave us an especially difficult and storyline-filled path. We play #6 seed Auburn in the Second Round and FINALLY look like we came to play for March Madness, winning by 10+ and looking good doing it ... we are FINALLY in the Sweet Sixteen! We go on to beat #2 seed Marquette in a rematch and make it to the Elite Eight. In a similar style to our 2004 squad losing to Duke, however, we just look outgunned and tired vs. #1 seed Kansas (of course, lol...), ending our season at 28-10 and soothing everyone's worries about our postseason record. Recruiting picks up significantly.

Sound good? :cool:
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Sounds good. Would look better if you let us beat Kansas in E8.
 
#300      
DAM1298
skyIdub said:
Uhhh....what? Go right ahead and explain how establishing a position to prevent an opponent from getting to their desired spot is not defending.
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The defense in question
British Basketball GIF by Bristol Flyers
 
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