For the whole luck conversation, a great and perfectly recent/relevant example of having just a little luck in 50/50 games is this Marquette/Purdue game.
End of the half Purdue throws up a 75 footer and drains it. No way anyone can honestly say that those 3 points were earned by skill. Maybe you practice that shot here/there but it’s probably less than a 1% shot. Lucky it went in.
Purdue won by 3.
In a less extreme example, Marquette is down 3 and puts Purdue at the line with like 12 seconds left.
They miss the FT and the ball bounces directly to Edey. Not that Edey got good position (he was being careful not to foul) just that the ball literally bounced directly in his direction and arced in a way that it could only find his hands.
That isn’t skill or bball IQ (he was forced to be in that spot due to it being a FT), just luck that Fletcher Loyer missed a FT and it came right to him and forced Marquette to foul again.
In these close games, where skill levels are matched, luck can be a huge factor in a game winning play even if not a huge variable throughout the entire game.