Illini Basketball 2023-2024

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#101      

Bigtex

Bigtex
DFW
Bigtex
Fighter of the Nightman said:
So according to Sports Reference, we score almost 84 PPG (13th in the nation) and give up 72 PPG (187th in the nation). I thought it would be an interesting way to divide up our games vs. "major" opponents by whether or not we score 80+, whether or not our opponent scores 80+ and then the other two combinations. I am also using the current NET Rankings.

Illini Score 80+, Opponent Scores Less Than 80 ... Illini 6-0
W 97-73 vs. #150 Missouri in St. Louis, MO (Quad 3)
W 96-66 vs. #53 Northwestern (Quad 2)
W 88-73 at #120 Michigan (Quad 2)
W 88-63 vs. #98 Rutgers (Quad 3)
W 87-75 at #66 Ohio State (Quad 1)
W 97-68 vs. #120 Michigan (Quad 3)

Both Teams Score 80+ ... Illini 4-3
W 98-89 vs. #37 FAU in New York, NY (Quad 1)
L 96-91 in OT at #53 Northwestern (Quad 1)
W 87-84 in OT vs. #41 Nebraska (Quad 2)
L 88-80 at #24 Michigan State (Quad 1)
W 85-80 at #67 Maryland (Quad 1)
L 90-89 at #96 Penn State (Quad 2)
W 95-85 vs. #60 Iowa (Quad 2)

Both Teams Score Less Than 80 ... Illini 3-2
L 71-64 vs. #12 Marquette (Quad 1)
W 76-58 at #98 Rutgers (Quad 2)
W 71-68 vs. #24 Michigan State (Quad 1)
L 76-67 vs. #67 Maryland (Quad 2)
W 70-62 vs. #108 Indiana (Quad 3)

Opponent Scores 80+, Illini Score Less than 80 ... Illini 0-2
L 86-79 at #5 Tennessee (Quad 1)
L 83-78 at #2 Purdue (Quad 1)

So, we are...
6-0 when we score 80+ and our opponent does not.
4-3 when we score 80+ but we also give up 80+.
3-2 when we don't score 80+ but we also give up less than 80.
0-2 when we don't score 80+ but our opponent does.

Looking at it this way is very frustrating ... of course you expect the two extremes to be lopsided records. However, I think this just illustrates that regardless of how good our offense is, we are just absolutely playing with fire in those 7 games where we are in a shootout. There is not one game of those 7 where both teams score 80+ that we were not INCREDIBLY nervous in the final minutes ... why risk your Tournament life in such a battle?! If this team goes anywhere in March, it will NOT because we are just raining threes on our opponent (which we aren't even that good at...) ... it will be because the defense really comes together.
Click to expand...
How about a couple small changes?

Opponent Scores 80+ ... Illini 4-5
W 98-89 vs. #37 FAU in New York, NY (Quad 1)
L 96-91 in OT at #53 Northwestern (Quad 1)
W 87-84 in OT vs. #41 Nebraska (Quad 2)
L 88-80 at #24 Michigan State (Quad 1)
W 85-80 at #67 Maryland (Quad 1)
L 90-89 at #96 Penn State (Quad 2)
W 95-85 vs. #60 Iowa (Quad 2)
L 86-79 at #5 Tennessee (Quad 1)
L 83-78 at #2 Purdue (Quad 1)

so, we are...
6-0 when we score 80+ and our opponent does not.
3-2 when both teams score less than 80.
4-5 when opponent score 80+
 
#102      

Fighter of the Nightman

Fighter of the Nightman
Chicago, IL
Fighter of the Nightman
Bigtex said:
How about a couple small changes?

Opponent Scores 80+ ... Illini 4-5
W 98-89 vs. #37 FAU in New York, NY (Quad 1)
L 96-91 in OT at #53 Northwestern (Quad 1)
W 87-84 in OT vs. #41 Nebraska (Quad 2)
L 88-80 at #24 Michigan State (Quad 1)
W 85-80 at #67 Maryland (Quad 1)
L 90-89 at #96 Penn State (Quad 2)
W 95-85 vs. #60 Iowa (Quad 2)
L 86-79 at #5 Tennessee (Quad 1)
L 83-78 at #2 Purdue (Quad 1)

so, we are...
6-0 when we score 80+ and our opponent does not.
3-2 when both teams score less than 80.
4-5 when opponent score 80+
Click to expand...
Yep, same story ... if we are going to give up 80 points or more, we are putting our March Madness fate in the hands of the basketball gods and our potential Tournament run with such a talented team will be wasted on pretty much a coin toss...
 
#103      

lstewart53x3

lstewart53x3
Scottsdale, Arizona
lstewart53x3
Fighter of the Nightman said:
So according to Sports Reference, we score almost 84 PPG (13th in the nation) and give up 72 PPG (187th in the nation). I thought it would be an interesting way to divide up our games vs. "major" opponents by whether or not we score 80+, whether or not our opponent scores 80+ and then the other two combinations. I am also using the current NET Rankings.

Illini Score 80+, Opponent Scores Less Than 80 ... Illini 6-0
W 97-73 vs. #150 Missouri in St. Louis, MO (Quad 3)
W 96-66 vs. #53 Northwestern (Quad 2)
W 88-73 at #120 Michigan (Quad 2)
W 88-63 vs. #98 Rutgers (Quad 3)
W 87-75 at #66 Ohio State (Quad 1)
W 97-68 vs. #120 Michigan (Quad 3)

Both Teams Score 80+ ... Illini 4-3
W 98-89 vs. #37 FAU in New York, NY (Quad 1)
L 96-91 in OT at #53 Northwestern (Quad 1)
W 87-84 in OT vs. #41 Nebraska (Quad 2)
L 88-80 at #24 Michigan State (Quad 1)
W 85-80 at #67 Maryland (Quad 1)
L 90-89 at #96 Penn State (Quad 2)
W 95-85 vs. #60 Iowa (Quad 2)

Both Teams Score Less Than 80 ... Illini 3-2
L 71-64 vs. #12 Marquette (Quad 1)
W 76-58 at #98 Rutgers (Quad 2)
W 71-68 vs. #24 Michigan State (Quad 1)
L 76-67 vs. #67 Maryland (Quad 2)
W 70-62 vs. #108 Indiana (Quad 3)

Opponent Scores 80+, Illini Score Less than 80 ... Illini 0-2
L 86-79 at #5 Tennessee (Quad 1)
L 83-78 at #2 Purdue (Quad 1)

So, we are...
6-0 when we score 80+ and our opponent does not.
4-3 when we score 80+ but we also give up 80+.
3-2 when we don't score 80+ but we also give up less than 80.
0-2 when we don't score 80+ but our opponent does.

Looking at it this way is very frustrating ... of course you expect the two extremes to be lopsided records. However, I think this just illustrates that regardless of how good our offense is, we are just absolutely playing with fire in those 7 games where we are in a shootout. There is not one game of those 7 where both teams score 80+ that we were not INCREDIBLY nervous in the final minutes ... why risk your Tournament life in such a battle?! If this team goes anywhere in March, it will NOT because we are just raining threes on our opponent (which we aren't even that good at...) ... it will be because the defense really comes together.
Click to expand...
All I see is we’re 10-3 when we score 80+.
 
#106      

Fighter of the Nightman

Fighter of the Nightman
Chicago, IL
Fighter of the Nightman
lstewart53x3 said:
All I see is we’re 10-3 when we score 80+.
Click to expand...
I'm all for being an optimist when it calls for it, but I would argue you are not looking closely enough. Three of those wins are vs. Quad 3 teams, so we are 7-3 in games where we score 80+ against Tournament-level competition that we would be facing in the Second Round (I think most of us agree a First Round loss would be a MASSIVE disappointment, and even a Second Round loss would really leave a negative air about the program, fair or unfair). And these are those games in chronological order:

W 98-89 vs. #37 FAU (New York, NY)
W 96-66 vs. #53 Northwestern
W 88-73 at #120 Michigan
L 96-91 in OT at #53 Northwestern
W 87-75 at #66 Ohio State
W 87-84 in OT vs. #41 Nebraska
L 88-80 at #24 Michigan State
W 85-80 at #67 Maryland
L 90-89 at #96 Penn State
W 95-85 vs. #60 Iowa

Two things concern me here:

1. Of all those wins, the only ones that were not absolute heart attacks were vs. Northwestern and at Michigan. The first one happened way back on January 2nd, and the second is against a last place team that won't sniff the NCAA. I'll give us credit for winning, but again ... we were playing with fire. A win is a win is a win, but luck evens out. I don't want to be praying for a last second win in the Second Round while playing a team that is just simply less talented than we are. People can say I am being too harsh on them, but this team is simply too talented to be in a down-to-the-wire battle with everyone! That's asking for a fluke loss and an early exit.

2. The trend since the start of the year is concerning. If you look at the Big Ten results since the start of the year in that list of 10 games up there, the points we gave up in regulation goes like this:

66 vs. Northwestern
73 at Michigan
76 at Northwestern
75 at Ohio State
73 vs. Nebraska
80 at Michigan State
89 at Penn State
85 vs. Iowa

The stats are skewed by the Northwestern and Nebraska games being OT, but we are giving up a lot more points lately than we were before.
 
#113      

RockfordIllini

R
RockfordIllini
So I need to see it against Minnesota, but it seems like we are clearly better defensively when we fight over ball screens and preserve matchups vs switch 1-4. Is the switching Hamer’s idea and is it he who’s insisted we stick with it?
 
#114      

danielb927

danielb927
Orange Krush Class of 2013
Rochester, MN
danielb927
thefalcon5 said:
For the past 20 years every single champion has had a kenpom offense ranking of at least 40 and defense of at least 25.

I for one don’t like those odds, but I do think this team is capable (and proved it early in the year) of playing like a top 25 defense.
Click to expand...

A stat like this will continue to be true... until the year it isn't. The past 20 champions have probably exceeded some other quasi-arbitrary combination of statistical thresholds as well.

All I really see from that is that the past 20 champions have been good teams. What's more, those numbers are skewed by a single outlier (UConn, 2014) that was 39th on offense - meanwhile, the average champion over the past 20 years has had a better national ranking on offense than defense. The same goes for final four teams (larger sample size, only marginally noisier).

From that, and everything else I've read the past few years, offense is just more important than defense -- a great offense gets you 2/3 of the way to a score, but a great defense only gets you 1/3 of the way to a stop.

That doesn't mean we don't need to get better on D... just that a bad D is not some kind of death sentence for a deep tournament run.
 
#115      

goillini30

goillini30
goillini30
danielb927 said:
A stat like this will continue to be true... until the year it isn't. The past 20 champions have probably exceeded some other quasi-arbitrary combination of statistical thresholds as well.

All I really see from that is that the past 20 champions have been good teams. What's more, those numbers are skewed by a single outlier (UConn, 2014) that was 39th on offense - meanwhile, the average champion over the past 20 years has had a better national ranking on offense than defense. The same goes for final four teams (larger sample size, only marginally noisier).

From that, and everything else I've read the past few years, offense is just more important than defense -- a great offense gets you 2/3 of the way to a score, but a great defense only gets you 1/3 of the way to a stop.

That doesn't mean we don't need to get better on D... just that a bad D is not some kind of death sentence for a deep tournament run.
Click to expand...
Also, that stat is a little misleading because those kenpom rankings are post tournament, so obviously a team that has won 6 straight games against mostly good to great competition will see it's numbers improve. I believe I heard that the Baylor team that won it was actually only around 45th in AdjD going into that tournament, but they were the lowest ranked defense to win it in a while.

Found this article about it: https://johngasaway.com/2022/03/08/stop-worrying-about-top-25-in-both-offense-and-defense-at-kenpom/
 
#117      

Fighter of the Nightman

Fighter of the Nightman
Chicago, IL
Fighter of the Nightman
Didn't know where else to put this, but I am really bummed and surprised that our season-ending game at Iowa is a frickin' Sunday night game. That is the last weekend in Big Ten hoops, and there are SIX games on Sunday, March 10th and only ONE on Saturday, March 9th ... and the one on Saturday is Minnesota at Northwestern?! Meanwhile, you have these matchups splitting viewers on Sunday:

11:00 am/11:30 am: Nebraska at Michigan and Wisconsin at #2 Purdue
1:00 pm: Ohio State at Rutgers
3:30 pm: Michigan State at Indiana
6:00 pm/6:30 pm: Maryland at Penn State and #13 Illinois at Iowa

Wisconsin/Purdue and MSU/Indiana are on FOX and CBS, respectively, so I get why those have to stay ... but why the hell wouldn't you want Illinois/Iowa (by far the most interesting matchup of the remaining ones) moved to Saturday?! I really do think it's a strange business decision to have 6/7 games on a Sunday, but I also just selfishly wish this one was on a Saturday so Illini fans could join me in painting Carver orange.
 
#121      

Iloveorangekoolaid

Iloveorangekoolaid
Iloveorangekoolaid
Fighter of the Nightman said:
Ah, good catch ... definitely explains why they'd avoid an Iowa game that day of all teams, too! :ROFLMAO: Well, I hope there is still a good Illini contingent! Sucks it's Sunday night rather than Sunday afternoon, for these purposes.
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I’m still holding out hope that we win our next three games, get back within a game of Purdue. Purdue loses that Sunday morning to Wisconsin opening the door for us to play for a B1G title Sunday night.
 
#123      

IlliniCub 16

IlliniCub 16
IlliniCub 16
With it being announced that Zach Edey is leaving after this season, who are the top five Big Ten opponents that you happiest to never have to face again? This should only include people who we know have no eligibility left or have announced they won't use their Covid year like Edey.

My list is:
Boo Buie
Jahmir Young
Edey
Tyson Walker
Tominaga

I also really hope Tony Perkins doesn't feel like using his Covid season.
 
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