This is not true.
First of all, you can only compare the last 2 years of conference records, since the expansion. Records prior to expansion are not relative.
There were no 9-9 teams in 2015, 10-8 tied for 8th. Unless you have some top 25 wins non-conference, 9th place in the B1G won't cut it even in strong years. This is not a strong year, and we don't have any wins against top 25 teams non-con.
2014 we tied with IU at 9-9. IU had 10 non-con and did make it...but they had 4 wins against top 25 teams. If we have 4 wins against 10 25 teams, we will clearly win more than 9 games in the B1G, so this is a very poor comp.
Not only do we not have any top 25 wins, it is possible we don't have any wins against teams that will be in the top 50 at the end of the year. We could conceivably win 11 games in the B1G without beating a team that is in the top 50 at the end of the year.
It is clearly possible that we could sneak in at 9-9, but in a down year for the B1G it is highly unlikely (less than 5%, IMHO). Finishing 10-8 without any top 25 wins is very possible, and could easlity leave us outside looking in.
It is entirely possible that Rutgers, Penn St, Minnesota, Iowa, Nebraska and Northwestern are all outside of the top 50 at the end of the year, and we play 11 games against this group.