Hi Bash, there's a lot to think about as far as how this all plays out, but first things first...
Let's not shortchange the NCAA here. While you are absolutely correct that "the NCAA didn't proactively create a system to pay players, and had one forced upon them with no guiderails," let us not forget that the system forced upon them requires someone else to pay their 'employees' - truly a business model that any NBA owner would envy.
The NCAA loves NIL, because it allows them to continue to sidestep that 'employee' relationship, and all of the responsibilities (including payroll) that come with it. When the supremes decided the NIL case, there was a hint of wanting to see a case establishing an employer-employee relationship, and the NCAA does not want that case to happen. I think they pretty clearly allowed themselves to get forced into NIL, because it took an (illicit) economy that was successful, familiar, and already the status quo for some schools and made it the status quo for everyone, while requiring little more than a rule book change for the NCAA.
While NIL has opened Pandora's box, it hasn't yet affected the NCAA bottom line, and in that sense, it has played out exactly as the NCAA had hoped for.