John Groce at Illinois

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#1,226      
I am in favor for Groce staying another year but for totally different reasons.

What does it mean to have 100% chance of a home run hire, and how is this accomplished without making a coaching change? Because if there is away, all these colleges that have ever made a coaching change without a 100% guaranteed are simply stupid. And I have seen this implication before, but the probability that we get a good coach next year is definitely no better than getting a good coach this year.

As far as finances, there is no much difference this year from next. And as has been explained multiple times, "state of IL" finances play zero role in the hiring of the basketball coach.
" home run hire" is very subjective
 
#1,227      

IlliniRunIn07

Tampa, FL
Okay, here's my case for retaining Groce

1. He's got three years on his deal after this one. You don't need to extend him, and you're not chopping his recruiting legs off. Unlike recent Illini messes, inaction is a viable strategy in this case.

2. The most important short-to-medium term goal for the athletic department as a whole is to create and reflect stability and competence. There is no more turbulent, higher stakes time for an athletic department than a coaching search. We can all but guarantee we're going to go through that after next football season, forcing a new hire to do that twice in his first 10 months on the job seems insane. There are 11 games left and we have no AD. Can we really say that new person is making an informed decision?

3. Because of the unfortunate state of things and the furious insanity of the fanbase, the new AD's fate and viability is going to be completely tied to the immediate results of the two coaches he's going to have to hire. This guy and both of his hires could be dead men walking by December 2017, without even having had a chance. That is the worst case scenario. Always avoid the worst case scenario.

4. There is so much death and destruction around the program that I fear the 2017 class is a disaster waiting to happen regardless of the coach. Frank Williams' son committing somewhere other than Illinois would be a new low recruiting-wise, and the coach that happens to will never win back the fanbase. Let that fate, if it is to occur, befall Groce and not the next guy. If the next 13 months are going to suck, it's infinitely better not to hand that turd to someone we want to have the credibility to build it back up.

5. We will have a fully constructed, bells and whistles installed SFC to sell to a coach after next season as opposed to the very exciting construction site we have currently. And in any event, a coaching search is a long-term process, I feel. Especially for someone like Tiley or Whitman who would be a rookie at this. Another crap season isn't going to tank the stock of the Illinois job more than a year of prep and networking and information gathering would improve the quality of decision-making the new AD would be able to make.

6. We'll have a new Chancellor by next season and Barb Wilson will be back to thumb wrestling in LAS.

7. And finally, on a basketball level, do I think we have any hope of massive improvement next year under Groce? Not really. But it's POSSIBLE. All the crap they've gone through this year isn't an excuse for how bad it's been, but take that stuff away with a more experienced group next year and maybe we see SOMETHING.

So anyway, those are my thoughts. There's no question Groce "deserves" to be fired, but what he deserves and what's in the long-term best interest of Illinois Athletics are divergent at this point, IMO. It's not the end of the world if he comes back. He's not Beckman, I don't hate the guy. I don't think the fan outcry for a brand new AD who just stepped in the door retaining a likable coach on the basis of "this season was FUBAR from the jump and I haven't seen what he can do yet" would be that severe. No worse than what it already is, certainly.

Also, Groce is the only coach in the program who hasn't had to worry about a mistreatment lawsuit.
 
#1,228      
" home run hire" is very subjective

It is subjective but I have less of a problem if anyone wants to use the term to indicate a "big name" coach or one of the hottest up-n-comers in any year. Hiring Shaka Smart, for example, would have been indeed considered a "home run."

But there is no way anyone can guarantee and be 100% sure we can make such a hire, whether that is this year, next, or any other year. So that is not a reason not to make a change, if you think one is needed. The risk will always be there.
 
#1,229      
It is subjective but I have less of a problem if anyone wants to use the term to indicate a "big name" coach or one of the hottest up-n-comers in any year. Hiring Shaka Smart, for example, would have been indeed considered a "home run."

But there is no way anyone can guarantee and be 100% sure we can make such a hire, whether that is this year, next, or any other year. So that is not a reason not to make a change, if you think one is needed. The risk will always be there.
Agree...but you have to be willing to pay in the upper tier of your conference...here's an older article on topic.

http://www.ibj.com/blogs/4-the-scor...ll-coaches-pay-hikes-show-no-signs-of-slowing
 
#1,231      

jmwillini

Tolono, IL
i agree that Second and Chalmers' post should be required reading.

The killer to me about the injuries this season isn't so much that Finke and JCL are getting more minutes, it is that your 9, 10 & 11 players on the depth chart are getting 20+ (maybe 30+?) minutes per game when they should be getting mop up minutes at best.
 
#1,232      
I am in favor for Groce staying another year but for totally different reasons.

What does it mean to have 100% chance of a home run hire, and how is this accomplished without making a coaching change? Because if there is away, all these colleges that have ever made a coaching change without a 100% guaranteed are simply stupid. And I have seen this implication before, but the probability that we get a good coach next year is definitely no better than getting a good coach this year.

As far as finances, there is no much difference this year from next. And as has been explained multiple times, "state of IL" finances play zero role in the hiring of the basketball coach.

I think once you realize a coach isn't the guy you move on--assuming the new AD will have the resources to get a top available coach. Which is a HUGE assumption.

If we get a 3rd tier AD who doesn't have the resources to hire a top coach we're basically screwed anyway...so might as well hold onto Groce and hope for the best. Coaches gain experience and can improve.
 
#1,233      

kcib8130

Parts Unknown
Assuming we get an AD, I wonder how much attendance figures into any decision that's made. Just scanning the attendance figures, we're down about 2k from recent history, and I have to believe that figure will only go trend down for the rest of the season. If you figure $25 avg seat, that's approaching a million for a season just on tickets.

I believe that total number of seats went down with the renovation IIRC. Not saying the eye test is lying to you, but the actual stats may not show quite a drastic change that it seems like.

I went to the Michigan game this year and thought the same thing, although that game was at a weird time (2pm on a wednesday) and was during semester break.
 
#1,234      
I believe that total number of seats went down with the renovation IIRC. Not saying the eye test is lying to you, but the actual stats may not show quite a drastic change that it seems like.

I went to the Michigan game this year and thought the same thing, although that game was at a weird time (2pm on a wednesday) and was during semester break.

While it's true overall capacity is lower now, we haven't been selling out too many games recently so that probably doesn't come into play.
 
#1,235      
I think once you realize a coach isn't the guy you move on--assuming the new AD will have the resources to get a top available coach. Which is a HUGE assumption.

If we get a 3rd tier AD who doesn't have the resources to hire a top coach we're basically screwed anyway.

The resources in terms of money will be there. However, time and institutional stability are resources as well.
 
#1,236      
Okay, here's my case for retaining Groce

1. He's got three years on his deal after this one. You don't need to extend him, and you're not chopping his recruiting legs off. Unlike recent Illini messes, inaction is a viable strategy in this case.

2. The most important short-to-medium term goal for the athletic department as a whole is to create and reflect stability and competence. There is no more turbulent, higher stakes time for an athletic department than a coaching search. We can all but guarantee we're going to go through that after next football season, forcing a new hire to do that twice in his first 10 months on the job seems insane. There are 11 games left and we have no AD. Can we really say that new person is making an informed decision?

3. Because of the unfortunate state of things and the furious insanity of the fanbase, the new AD's fate and viability is going to be completely tied to the immediate results of the two coaches he's going to have to hire. This guy and both of his hires could be dead men walking by December 2017, without even having had a chance. That is the worst case scenario. Always avoid the worst case scenario.

4. There is so much death and destruction around the program that I fear the 2017 class is a disaster waiting to happen regardless of the coach. Frank Williams' son committing somewhere other than Illinois would be a new low recruiting-wise, and the coach that happens to will never win back the fanbase. Let that fate, if it is to occur, befall Groce and not the next guy. If the next 13 months are going to suck, it's infinitely better not to hand that turd to someone we want to have the credibility to build it back up.

5. We will have a fully constructed, bells and whistles installed SFC to sell to a coach after next season as opposed to the very exciting construction site we have currently. And in any event, a coaching search is a long-term process, I feel. Especially for someone like Tiley or Whitman who would be a rookie at this. Another crap season isn't going to tank the stock of the Illinois job more than a year of prep and networking and information gathering would improve the quality of decision-making the new AD would be able to make.

6. We'll have a new Chancellor by next season and Barb Wilson will be back to thumb wrestling in LAS.

7. And finally, on a basketball level, do I think we have any hope of massive improvement next year under Groce? Not really. But it's POSSIBLE. All the crap they've gone through this year isn't an excuse for how bad it's been, but take that stuff away with a more experienced group next year and maybe we see SOMETHING.

So anyway, those are my thoughts. There's no question Groce "deserves" to be fired, but what he deserves and what's in the long-term best interest of Illinois Athletics are divergent at this point, IMO. It's not the end of the world if he comes back. He's not Beckman, I don't hate the guy. I don't think the fan outcry for a brand new AD who just stepped in the door retaining a likable coach on the basis of "this season was FUBAR from the jump and I haven't seen what he can do yet" would be that severe. No worse than what it already is, certainly.

There is a lot of logic in this post. Yet I still don't agree. You cannot keep people if you believe that they deserve to be fired.

My primary rationale for feeling that he should be let go is that I just don't see how he recruits 2017 when you couple this year with the meltdown from last year. That is what the recruits are looking at. We live in a society with the attention span of about 2 minutes, so that is all the recruits know about Illinois basketball. I know we have a decent recruit already committed (verbally), but that is not someone who had a lot of options. Guys with options are not going to commit to this mess.

In my opinion, when you know a guy can't cut it, you get rid of him. I would have cut ties with Weber 2 years before we did. I would have fired Beckman after 1 year. I apply that rationale to my real work, and although I might occasionally get rid of someone who I should have let grow, more often than not, quick decisions work out.

That being said, I don't see any way the University gets rid of Groce. That would require action, something that we apparently are not interested in.
 
#1,238      

mattcoldagelli

The Transfer Portal with Do Not Contact Tag
I apply that rationale to my real work, and although I might occasionally get rid of someone who I should have let grow, more often than not, quick decisions work out.

If your job is analogous to the current Illinois athletic department, you have my genuine pity.
 
#1,239      
Agree...but you have to be willing to pay in the upper tier of your conference...here's an older article on topic.

http://www.ibj.com/blogs/4-the-scor...ll-coaches-pay-hikes-show-no-signs-of-slowing

This is one thing I give Mike Thomas credit for. He got it. He put up offers for $3mil plus for a proven coach before settling on Groce at a much lower compensation that was appropriate to his experience and market value.

Here's what established coaches make now (USA today):
$4.0 mil Izzo
$3.4 mil Matta
$3.2 mil Crean
$3.0 mil (former, Ryan)
$2.4 mil Painter
$2.3 mil Turgeon

So if you want to be competing with a group that strong, you either have to be really lucky getting a young coach on the rise that grows into that kind of compensation, or prepared to pony up the serious money. For as much history as Illinois has, it's not a destination job like it should be IMO, and part of that is, well, everyone here knows what Guenther did before Thomas.
 
#1,241      
If your job is analogous to the current Illinois athletic department, you have my genuine pity.

Ha, ha. Good point. My work is in a far better state than the athletic department at Illinois. My point was that fear of making a mistake by letting someone go who might eventually mature into a super-star is no way to run a business, or a department. You'll be OK if you occasionally cut and run too early. You will not be OK if you regularly hold onto people who can't measure up. Even if you only hold onto someone for a year too long, it will affect your productivity and value for a much longer time.
 
#1,242      
There is a lot of logic in this post. Yet I still don't agree. You cannot keep people if you believe that they deserve to be fired.

My primary rationale for feeling that he should be let go is that I just don't see how he recruits 2017 when you couple this year with the meltdown from last year. That is what the recruits are looking at. We live in a society with the attention span of about 2 minutes, so that is all the recruits know about Illinois basketball. I know we have a decent recruit already committed (verbally), but that is not someone who had a lot of options. Guys with options are not going to commit to this mess.

In my opinion, when you know a guy can't cut it, you get rid of him. I would have cut ties with Weber 2 years before we did. I would have fired Beckman after 1 year. I apply that rationale to my real work, and although I might occasionally get rid of someone who I should have let grow, more often than not, quick decisions work out.

That being said, I don't see any way the University gets rid of Groce. That would require action, something that we apparently are not interested in.

Think this is well said.

I'd agree that in the vast majority of jobs, you do coaching and counseling to see if the person is interested in getting back on track. But million dollar jobs are not in that category.

I'm also of the opinion that Groce's on the court performance has put recruiting in jeopardy, and there's little likelihood that '17 will be better off continuing on the current path.

I'm also fairly certain that nothing's going to happen.
 
#1,243      
The resources in terms of money will be there. However, time and institutional stability are resources as well.

That stability begins with a home run AD hire--and I can't imagine a great AD looking at Groce's body of work and saying, "Sure, let's give him another year". Unless, of course, he's able to get some momentum going on recruiting.
 
#1,244      

BananaShampoo

Captain 'Paign
Phoenix, AZ
3.2 million for Crean! I'm speechless.
I know. They way overpaid for him when they got him because he was a hot coach at the time, recently coming off the high of a FF with Marquette. He was given way too much credit for what he did at that program, when a lot of their success could be directly attributed to the fact that he lucked out in getting a star in D Wade. Just as Groce was given probably more credit than deserved for what he did with Ohio with DJ Cooper. I think almost any coach could have been successful with those guys.

Also, IU is still pretty regarded as a plum job, and they have the support and boosters to pay that much for a coach.
 
#1,245      
I know. They way overpaid for him when they got him because he was a hot coach at the time, recently coming off the high of a FF with Marquette. He was given way too much credit for what he did at that program, when a lot of their success could be directly attributed to the fact that he lucked out in getting a star in D Wade. Just as Groce was given probably more credit than deserved for what he did with Ohio with DJ Cooper. I think almost any coach could have been successful with those guys.

Also, IU is still pretty regarded as a plum job, and they have the support and boosters to pay that much for a coach.
Yep,and then he lucked out 3 seasons ago and put together the top ranked team in the country.Now hes lucked out and has his team tied for 1st in the Big.:tsk:The man is creepy for sure but c'mon he can coach and recruit pretty well I'd a
say.
 
#1,247      
:confused:

He did keep Zeller, Yogi and Blackmon home, but most of his recruits have been from out of state.
Agreed.... Hartman from Indy Cathedral has been pretty solid but the roster is loaded with out of state kids. Hart is one of those typical Indiana kids that jumps when the home school comes calling. Zeisloft is the only close one to the home state after that.
 
#1,249      

Ryllini

Lombard
I absolutely think coach should get another season, maybe two, depending on the 2017 class. I think coach created a great buzz for the program with his success the first season and the recruiting excitement chasing some great players, but unfortunately we didn't land some of those guys namely in the point guard position. What we have now is a transfer 5th year senior and Tate(love him) who is just not B10 material. My question to the staff, you obviously see the players more in practice and off time, but do you want your Illinos coaching careers in the hands of Tate and Lewis? You have some really good players on roster and healthy, basketball players, why not get your best 5 on the floor as much as possible?

I don't really question the staffs ability to develop talent, KN and Hill have turned into really nice players, Finke has impressed, Mavs body is better and has moves and a shot, AJ has made strides(largely tonight), JCL starts and is improving, but every player has a ceiling and Tate and Lewis are at theirs. These guys largely bring it up and look for perimeter pass and then get the hell out of the way. Take out the middle man and get a threat who can bring it up, make a pass, cut and find a spot to be a threat.
 
#1,250      
Faith in Groce's ability to get it done at Illinois appears to be pure delusion at this point. Wish it weren't so but it is.

He wasn't a particularly good coach at Ohio. He hasn't been one in 4 years at Illinois. It's bizarre there is anyone left to think that would somehow change in year 5.
 
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