As someone who ponders almost exclusively meaningless things, I greatly appreciate this.
Jordan Goodwin commits to SLU
As someone who ponders almost exclusively meaningless things, I greatly appreciate this.
MrOizo
- Chicago
I think it's safe to say that that, along with failing to repeat his HS success this coming year, would be well received in these parts... Only natural.
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Speaking of HS, Althoff moves to the Big boy class 4A this year.
frozenrope9190
- Aurora, IL
I don't know how much of a cupcake conference SLU is in; they're in the A10, which has some pretty good schools in it (St. Joseph, VCU, Dayton, GW). They're not powerhouses like the B10, but it's a bigger pond than the SoCon or the MAAC. He'll face some good competition in the A10.
All in all, I'm happy for the kid, but disappointed he didn't choose U of I. Ah, well. Onto the next one.
The Pontiff
- Chicago, IL
On a macro-level, I totally agree. If a player can prove he is one of the best in the B1G, that would seem to hold more weight than being the best in the A-10. More TV exposure, better level of competition, ability to create a brand, etc. And most guys that get drafted do tend to hail from one of the P5 or other stronger conferences, i.e., The American.
Still, going the non-traditional route and playing for a program in a lesser conference has still enabled numerous players to get drafted. Looking at the last seven drafts, on average 6-7 players are drafted each year from schools that hail from these smaller-type conferences. For instance, in the 2016 draft, the likes of Joel Bolomboy (F, Weber St.), Deandre' Bembry (SF, St. Joe's), Pascal Siakam (PF, NMSU) and Kay Felder (PG, Oakland) were picked. And despite being a 4yr starter and all B1G performer for IU, Yogi Ferrell, another 5'10" PG like Felder goes undrafted.
In the 2013 draft, 10 guys from schools like Lehigh, Murray St., Bucknell and Detroit were drafted, which when you take out the foreign players that year (14) comes out to over 20% of U.S. players selected coming from smaller schools. My guess without really looking into these use cases is that many of these kids got exposure in the NCAA tournament (think R.J. Hunter with Georgia St.) or got to the combine and killed it (like Felder did).
So while my heart wants to bag on the kid, the data doesn't necessarily reflect that going the A-10/SLU route would be a huge mistake as a route to get to the NBA. He just has to be all-world in conference, get his team to make a run in the NCAAs, and then get invited to the combines so as to test incredibly or performing exceptionally against the P5 guys. That's all.
Go
MrOizo
- Chicago
If someone could run an experiment or look at past data it would be interesting. How many players ranked 45-65, randomly selected from P5 and from all other schools at random, have made the NBA? 20% from all non P5 schools is very few from a population that is very large. However, maybe they represent 20% of all players in college ball ranked in the top 150 and thus are just as likely to go NBA regardless. Without the analysis it could be equal odds of the cases where small school players get to the league could be the exception to the rule. Without analysis, who knows...
The Pontiff
- Chicago, IL
Good question. If JGood ends up being ranked in that range and at SLU, he'll be somewhat of a rarity. Looking at Rivals' rankings (since I just happen to have that data and not RSCI handy) for guys ranked 45-65 in the 2008-2011 classes, here's what one finds...
- Of the 84 players in this data set, 77 ended up attending a P5 or a similarly prominent program, specifically Memphis or UNLV, with only 7 attending a smaller school or a JC/D3 program.
- Of the 7 smaller school players, 1 was drafted and played in the NBA, Kawhi Leonard, San Diego St. (I debated whether SDSU was also prominent enough but didn't think it had the history of Memphis or UNLV.)
- Of the 77 larger school players, 11 were drafted and 16 (21%) ended up playing in the NBA, with easily Klay Thompson as the most notable. But while most of these kids didn't get to the NBA, almost 70% did end up being starters for their school with 18% of them starting as true freshman. (Starting = starting for more than half of the games played.)
By the way, the 2012 class and later have too many guys still playing in college, so those years couldn't be included in the analysis.
Go
MrOizo
- Chicago
Thanks for the great analysis. Your work begs for more work on this. Is there a good RSCI database out there?Good question. If JGood ends up being ranked in that range and at SLU, he'll be somewhat of a rarity. Looking at Rivals' rankings (since I just happen to have that data and not RSCI handy) for guys ranked 45-65 in the 2008-2011 classes, here's what one finds...
As mentioned, it's fairly rare for kids rated in this range to not go to a more prominent P5-type school. But because of this small sample size for the non-P5ish players, one can't really extrapolate too much beyond that, as 1 out of 7 getting to the NBA is probably too generous. Would need to go back possibly into the 90s to get enough of a population.
- Of the 84 players in this data set, 77 ended up attending a P5 or a similarly prominent program, specifically Memphis or UNLV, with only 7 attending a smaller school or a JC/D3 program.
- Of the 7 smaller school players, 1 was drafted and played in the NBA, Kawhi Leonard, San Diego St. (I debated whether SDSU was also prominent enough but didn't think it had the history of Memphis or UNLV.)
- Of the 77 larger school players, 11 were drafted and 16 (21%) ended up playing in the NBA, with easily Klay Thompson as the most notable. But while most of these kids didn't get to the NBA, almost 70% did end up being starters for their school with 18% of them starting as true freshman. (Starting = starting for more than half of the games played.)
By the way, the 2012 class and later have too many guys still playing in college, so those years couldn't be included in the analysis.
Go
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Goodwin said tonight on ESPN radio his final three were SLU, NW and Mizzou. Got spite?
DanvIllini
Super Lurker
- Danville, IL
MrOizo
- Chicago
Hilarious!!! I've never seen such spite before. Not a good look for Thin-Skin Goodwin.
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MrOizo
- Chicago
Wouldn't play ball?
If that is the case then good for Groce. I don't want a coach who plays ball. Let's win this year with a full roster finally and prove things are fine here whether he comes or not. Let the kids keep developing under fletcher like they have and get the program rolling.
Based on his pedigree that shouldn't be a surprise.
SLU also has a better basketball history, both recent and total, than NW. If SLU would get down and dirty for Goodwin, it only makes sense NU would. They're not in on players of his caliber very often.
MrOizo
- Chicago
3,338 and dropping... It's a 20%+ drop, and the starting number was hours after the announcement. I bet it's 25-30%.
Deleted member 8213
D
Guest
I don't like to root against kids based on college choices unless they really thumb their nose at us in the process ala Cliff. Goodwin is not in that category yet, but he's approaching it with these intentional middle fingers to UI.
MrOizo
- Chicago
Thin-Skin Goodwin is across the line in my view. I'm a fan of Illinois, I root for Illinois kids above kids from other states, until they are non-neutral towards Illinois. I'll never be neutral towards Evan Turner for example. He got nasty towards Illinois and I'll never forget that. If someone is anti-Illinois, I can't be for them.
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The irony in this statement is fantastic. Who is the one with the thin skin in this situation? The KID who chose the school he wanted to go to? Or the fanbase who is freaking out because that school wasn't the one THEY wanted HIM to go to?
There are 9 pages on this thread, with most of the posts calling out Goodwin or SLU for doing something shady- you know, because thats the ONLY way Illinois would ever lose a recruit.
Leave this kid alone, and focus on the next one
I agree with the spirit of this, but the burr Goodwin clearly has in his saddle about Illinois is really bizarre and head-scratching.
MrOizo
- Chicago
As an Illini fanatic, I am simply an Illini junkie. This is interesting to me. Am I thin skinned about everything Illini? Yeah! Is it rare for an athlete to publicly act thin skinned like this? Yes it is. He can call us thin skinned all day long. I am not the one disrespecting coaches that recruited me and built relationships with me, my family, etc.
chief78
- Florida
schnaurt
- Phoenix, AZ
We all know fanatics are going to do things that they shouldn't based on being clouded by bias and obsession. I think venting on an Illini message board that is dedicated to this kids decision. Is not a bad way to vent.
The problem is when it is openly vented to Goodwin himself. I think alot of his open spurning of the Illini has to do quite a bit with the hate that he is receiving from the Illini faithful. The coaching staff took the hit and has moved on. For some reason, it is harder for fans to do this and if it takes 30 pages on this board for folks to feel better about his decision to not attend then so be it. I would much rather see that then twits tweeting directly to him about it.