Garcia to UNC and Kofi to UK would be the definition of nauseating. It would also be entirely expected for a fanbase that has been cupped up for over a decade.
Kofi Cockburn in the transfer portal
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sacraig
- The desert
That depends on how you define fair. If every team is bending or breaking the rules, is it still playing fair if you follow their letter? Or is it more fair to start bending or breaking them as well?
This makes perfect sense and well thought out. I still lean on it being too optimistic yes. I think we'll know pretty quick if he is thinking about other schools. If there is any hint he is in contact with another program, I immediatly think he's leaving.
It's a bit frustrating how BU just can't keep people around. I understand there are circumstances and every situation is different, but you've lost you top in state recruit to LSU, you've lost 3 assistants that you apparently offered big money to and still left, you've lost a high level recruit in Storr because he apparently wasn't bought in to BU yet, you potentially could be losing the best big recruit in a long long time to another school as well. Maybe I'm too harsh, maybe this happens to everyone, but man, dudes seem to be skipping outta here quick.
With the new transfer rules, this has become rhe wild west.
OA left some on the table but not Chin.
sacraig
- The desert
The new transfer rules are mostly temporary, though. I don't see any reason to think that NCAA basketball players will be playing musical chairs with teams in perpetuity. I think we currently have a confluence of several unique situations (COVID-induced loosening of transfer rules, NIL, rising profile of the G League) that are causing turmoil.
You might be right. I do however think there is a growing thought of player empowerment (which in most cases I'm all for) that if given the chance, most think that the grass is greener on the other side.
Might be, might not be. But loyalty to a program is going out the window, if I can't get mine and get it quick, I'll try somewhere else. To some this will work out, to alot more it will have negative consequences.
Total guess on my part, Kofi is either playing professionally in 21-22 or for the O&B!
If he's playing for another collegiate program, we've still got a really fun team and exciting season upcoming!
Regardless, thank you Kofi and Ayo for helping bring this program back!
If he's playing for another collegiate program, we've still got a really fun team and exciting season upcoming!
Regardless, thank you Kofi and Ayo for helping bring this program back!
illini80
- Forgottonia
When some players get burned by not having a team after entering the portal, it will cause the numbers to go down for marginal players. I don‘t see the trend changing for players who have done well. And I don’t think the 1 time transfer rule is going anywhere. If anything it will be expanded over time. Or at least there will be a push for it.
Curious what parts of the transfer rules you see as being temporary?
We could all be big fans of this NIL stuff here in a couple months.
sacraig
- The desert
I have to amend my previous statement and version of this post. The COVID transfer rules were made permanent in that a student athlete who transfers does not have to sit a year provided it is their first transfer. This is the first time that has happened, so there is going to be a lot of people jumping at the chance because there are 4 classes of players that never had that benefit. But next year, there will only be one class of players who haven't had that benefit, so the number of transfers should decrease in part because there are going to be a lot fewer eligible (and interested) players and also because some student athletes will be burned by this by overestimating their own prospects.
I think this will all reach an equilibrium within a season or two. We will see more transfers than before, but nothing like this year.
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illini80
- Forgottonia
There will be a lot of ebb and flow on this these first years. Some will figure it out faster than others, but eventually there will be tiers that will surface based on the money generated for the players. Also the rules established by the NCAA at this point are temporary. Significant changes may occur although I have no idea what that might mean.
illini80
- Forgottonia
That is correct on the one time waiver. Although they can make exceptions to that on a case by case basis like they did previously.
illini80
- Forgottonia
It will be interesting for sure. Last year the NCAA was already allowing a lot of waivers, but going back to 2019 there was just short of 1000 transfers. (Compared to 1716 at last count this year). It will still be a thing, but I agree this year will likely be the max whatever that number ends up at.
Illinivek23
- Gurnee
I thought a new policy was in effect that allowed all first time transfers without a sit out year going forward. The next one required a sit out.
So that is not correct?
sacraig
- The desert
The cream of the crop, roughly the top 50 top college guys each year, as judged by potential, will go pro with realistic expectations of getting to the NBA. Below that is a less differentiated pool of talented players who are still difference makers at the division 1 level. The big dance is 68 teams, so you don't have to be great to make it, and making it is a huge deal for most coaches/programs. To me this means there will be a scramble for talent which opens up with NIL opportunities. I expect that to change what we currently view as the norm.
For sure there will be players who stay. I can see various categories --guys who make spending money and don't see a reason to disrupt their education, marginal players who won't attract attention either way, and guys who are difference makers who've used their free transfer but still aren't ready for various reasons (injury, etc). But the guys just outside the draft will be the most coveted, and make rosters feel unstable. The differences between fan bases is significant, so IMO it stands to reason the NIL opportunities will be as well. And a lot of players already get questionable advice.
This year should be a record for turnover that stands for a long time, but I think the trend continues despite the one-off nature of it.
sacraig
- The desert
I think you are missing my point, though. What I am suggesting is that athletes can only transfer without sitting a year one time, so it won't be a constant churn. The fact that some will get left with no date to the dance after this round of transfers will probably also make future transfers think a little harder about transferring in future years.
I honestly don't see how NIL moves that needle much other than potentially influencing the one-time transfer decision of a player looking for a bigger pay day. But really, that's hardly a guarantee. A player in the NCAA builds their brand primarily locally, and transferring means they have to start over and may not get much in the way of NIL money right off the bat. The players with enough clout and visibility to get more national dollars likely have less incentive to transfer: they already have the visibility they need.
Transfers will almost certainly be more common given the new rules, but I don't think it's going to be the Wild West, either. The economics of it don't make sense. The question in my mind is how many off-seasons will it take for that to sort out.
Kofi will likely make more NIL $ if he comes back to Illinois after doubling down that he's going to leave. Like how Ayo became a legend for "running it back." It is a brilliant business move by the big guy and if he stays or if he goes I wish him the best and I'm sure BU will put a fun product on the court for us fans either way.
Are we going to show him the money?
You think he cares about that?
When will the NCAA stop pretedning this is amateur sports
I mean I think he does but at the end of the day getting paid is priority one.
Agree to disagree. We're spit-balling the impact here (I certainly am), but I think there are a few wrinkles that open things up in a significant way. Also, it's not necessarily the actual economics, but the perception that opens up a transfer. Projecting a value to a scholarship is relatively easy, but NIL will add a layer that will be subject to cherry-picking, manipulation, and shaky assumptions about both the program and the player's performance. And players won't have much ability to vet those assumptions. There's also the issue of schools getting involved more with hardship claims --even bringing in lawyers to get kids eligible immediately.
We can both agree that this year will be anomaly. My sense FWLIW, is that the trend towards more transfers that existed prior to this one-off year, will go up due to NIL. Whatever the result, we'll see it in due course.
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