skyIdub
Winged Warrior
Welp, that's what I get for spending most of my time in the BB.
Looking ahead to 2024
- Status
Welp, that's what I get for spending most of my time in the BB.
pruman91
- Paducah, Ky
Hey dub .....do you click on a certain sport thread or do you click on the new posts icon ??
I have found that using the new posts icon keeps me up to date on all things Illini , and when you go from one thread to another that the new post icon takes you to where you last left a certain thread.........I like it that way .....I really really do.............
I have found that using the new posts icon keeps me up to date on all things Illini , and when you go from one thread to another that the new post icon takes you to where you last left a certain thread.........I like it that way .....I really really do.............
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
Am I the only one that thinks all of this talk about our schedule being so difficult next year are kind of overreacting? Don't get me wrong - we have to get OUR house in order, or none of it will matter. However, I guess I just don't see how this is immediate cause for pessimism:
vs. [TBD - Eastern Illinois] ... should win, or else we suck anyway!
vs. Kansas ... will be a tough test, but it is at home and won't they lose a lot?
vs. Central Michigan ... see comment about EIU game.
at Nebraska ... tough game but no tougher than playing at Kinnick this year, IMO. In other words, we will have our chances.
at Penn State ... likely loss, okay there is one.
vs. Purdue ... we have no right to take them lightly, but it is at home and they will at worst be "in our peer group," lol.
vs. Michigan ... another likely loss, so there is two. Maybe some Red Grange magic??
at Oregon ... likely loss #3, but most years have three likely losses.
vs. Minnesota ... I'm sure it will be a tough game, but it is at home and we have owned them for a couple years now. Certainly not a game you write off.
vs. Michigan State ... we will see how much they improve right off the bat, but again - this is just not a HOME game that you assume a loss for.
at Rutgers ... I see this similar to your given "at Wisconsin" game or something - probably underdogs, but it's not like playing in the Horseshoe.
at Northwestern ... again, ABSOLUTELY not a game where you assume a loss! It's barely an away game. And, if the stadium is being built as planned, this game will be at a venue where it is an Illini home game (Wrigley, Soldier Field, etc.).
FFS, you could (perhaps foolishly) even dream of 9-3 there, but I think fans could definitely be at least cautiously optimistic of winning six...
vs. [TBD - Eastern Illinois] ... should win, or else we suck anyway!
vs. Kansas ... will be a tough test, but it is at home and won't they lose a lot?
vs. Central Michigan ... see comment about EIU game.
at Nebraska ... tough game but no tougher than playing at Kinnick this year, IMO. In other words, we will have our chances.
at Penn State ... likely loss, okay there is one.
vs. Purdue ... we have no right to take them lightly, but it is at home and they will at worst be "in our peer group," lol.
vs. Michigan ... another likely loss, so there is two. Maybe some Red Grange magic??
at Oregon ... likely loss #3, but most years have three likely losses.
vs. Minnesota ... I'm sure it will be a tough game, but it is at home and we have owned them for a couple years now. Certainly not a game you write off.
vs. Michigan State ... we will see how much they improve right off the bat, but again - this is just not a HOME game that you assume a loss for.
at Rutgers ... I see this similar to your given "at Wisconsin" game or something - probably underdogs, but it's not like playing in the Horseshoe.
at Northwestern ... again, ABSOLUTELY not a game where you assume a loss! It's barely an away game. And, if the stadium is being built as planned, this game will be at a venue where it is an Illini home game (Wrigley, Soldier Field, etc.).
FFS, you could (perhaps foolishly) even dream of 9-3 there, but I think fans could definitely be at least cautiously optimistic of winning six...
illinidarrin
- from parts unknown
It all depends on what they do in the offseason. Transfers and finishing up a good recruiting class. Also, we may have to change the coaching staff a little bit. If we can do that with good coaches and good replacement players, then it's possible we could be pretty good next year.
I hate hate hate this! In any given year you could have a first place team finish 2-3 games ahead of the second place team, yet that second place team gets to play the dominant first place team for the conference championship. I realize ultimately no different than having an inferior West team play a superior East team, but it feels wrong. Imagine if the 1983 Illini had to play Michigan again to win the conference it had already dominated.
Mr. Tibbs
- southeast DuPage
that was 40 years ago
40 years before 1983 , they were still wearing leather helmets
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
Yep! Remember these divisions that survived from 2011 to 2014?
Legends
Iowa
Michigan
Michigan State
Minnesota
Nebraska
Northwestern
Leaders
Illinois
Indiana
Ohio State
Penn State
Purdue
Wisconsin
They produced the following Big Ten Championship Game matchups:
2011: Michigan State vs. Wisconsin
2012: Nebraska vs. Wisconsin
2013: Michigan State vs. Ohio State
So while it never came up and it might seem difficult to believe now, I VERY distinctly remember Ohio State and Michigan fans throwing an absolute fit that this new setup could make "The Game" meaningless. The Big Ten clearly was dreaming of an OSU/Michigan matchup in Indy, but I guess the conference championship game was new enough at this time that all of the big donors and fans at OSU and Michigan were thinking primarily about how this new divisional setup would ruin their big rivalry game that they paid thousands of dollars per ticket for.
Well, fast forward nine Big Ten Championship Games later, and the East is 9-0 vs. the West, with 2015-2017 being the only stretch where the games were actually competitive. All of a sudden, the Blue Blood fan bases in the East are furious that only one of them gets to go to Indy, and they say things on social media like, "Without these stupid divisions, it would be OSU/Michigan like 90% of the years!"
They are about to get their wish. "The Game" will be completely meaningless starting next year. I think the actual most likely scenario is that the Big Ten Championship Game is on borrowed time anyway, and the Big Ten standings will serve more as a springboard to the CFP eventually.
Looking to next year and beyond, Illinois likely needs more talent. Duh. The top teams in our new 18-team league all recruit at a high level, and we are down at the bottom with Rutgers, Northwestern, and Minnesota. Player development, in-game decision making, strength training, culture, game planning, scouting--does any of it matter when Illinois has 6 four-star players and the top teams in the B1G have 45 or more?
Considering over- versus under-achievement, the Illini performed about as well as can be expected. Look at USC, Nebraska, Indiana, and Michigan State, Two coaches fired and disgruntled fans in LA and Lincoln. Hit the portal and hope to see development of young players who were underrecruited (like Witherspoon and Newton), I guess. Go Illini.
Considering over- versus under-achievement, the Illini performed about as well as can be expected. Look at USC, Nebraska, Indiana, and Michigan State, Two coaches fired and disgruntled fans in LA and Lincoln. Hit the portal and hope to see development of young players who were underrecruited (like Witherspoon and Newton), I guess. Go Illini.
I think you are spot on. If we cheat against Michigan, we could win that one.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
Agreed, and this is the only thing I remain frustrated with regarding Bret. I am super stoked he is our coach, I firmly believe he is the best man for this job, I am incredibly thankful for how quickly he even has us remotely competitive compared to Lovie, etc. However, it almost makes it MORE frustrating that I have such faith in his competence, because with even B- recruiting, I think we would really have this thing rolling.
Not saying Bielema has been perfect in-game or anything, but I get chills thinking about what Bret's record would look like if he were coaching Zook-level talent. We simply need to upgrade the personnel a bit. I feel like Bret's good coaching and development skills are pushing 3-4 win talent up to 5-6 win talent, but ... how have we not gotten some recruiters on this staff to bump ALL of those numbers up?!
Illini4Chief
- TENNESSEE
Zook....beat Ohio State....went to the Rose Bowl.......I"d take that in a second.
this years schedule seemed pretty easy and you see how that worked out.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
I knew someone would say this, but I pretty clearly said the first task is obviously getting OUR house in order or none of this matters. My point is it is not like we are playing Ohio State, Michigan and Penn State at home and traveling to USC, Washington and Oregon.
Waiting to see what Valentine will do in Champaign. One of the top running backs out of AZ.
This pretty well sums it up. You can find a diamond or two in the rough, but football rosters are 100 players - and you are not finding 30 diamonds in the rough. This shows up every year when we have a key starter or two go down and no quality depth to plug in. And 24/7 has us currently ranked 14th in the Big Ten for 2024 recruiting.
Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
I think it is more about how this season played out. Without a doubt next year's schedule is more difficult than the one this year, and the Illini went 5-7 and could have easily been 3-9 given some of the improbable comebacks. The only game on the calendar this year that felt like a certain loss going into the season was Penn State. Next year there are three on the schedule that feel more certain as losses (@Penn State, Mich, @Oregon). Next year will be an uphill climb.
A lot can change over the offseason, but the expectations should realistically be lowered. I don't think that is pessimism but rather realism to the situation. If Illini can get to 6 wins, then that is a widely successful season.
Right up until the 4th quarter of any game in which we had a lead. Also, didn't we play a lot of zone against Kansas?
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
If Ron Zook kept up even a fraction of the success he did in the ONE season you are talking about, he would not have been fired, haha...
--- After the Rose Bowl ---
2008: 5-7 (3-5)
2009: 3-9 (2-6)
2010: 7-6 (4-4)
2011: 6-6 (2-6) [Zook fired after the 6-game losing streak and before the bowl game]
So, after the Rose Bowl, Zook was 21-28 (.429) overall and 11-21 (.344) in Big Ten play. Let's not pretend, either, that being the first coach to ever lose his final 6 games after starting 6-0 in 2011 didn't kind of put an exclamation mark on that decline, haha. He also went 4-19 overall (.174) and 1-15 in Big Ten play (.063) before the Rose Bowl. While it might be fair to exclude those as rebuilding years, wouldn't one rationally do the same for Bielema's 5-7 campaign in 2021? Either way, compare that to the "disappointment" we are witnessing now:
Zook Post-Rose Bowl: 21-28 (.429) overall. 11-21 (.344) in the Big Ten.
Bielema: 18-19 (.486) overall. 12-15 (.444) in the Big Ten.
For me, there are two massive differences:
1. We are materially more competitive in the Big Ten vs. our peers. Even many of the games we have lost over the past three seasons have NOT been blowouts. Does it make it even harder to take the L sometimes? Sure. However, it speaks to a fundamental elevation of the program's competitive abilities, especially compared to the situation under Lovie (which is what Bret should be compared to - not Zook).
2. We are doing this with significantly less talent than Zook had, and that was always the issue ... he was the definition of doing less with more. Add to this that the actual talent level was beginning to dwindle by his final years, and we all of a sudden had an "excellent recruiter who was a below average coach" ... who was no longer recruiting that well.
Now regarding point #2, I will absolutely agree that Bielema needs to up the talent level to continue any sort of positive trajectory here; I said exactly this earlier. However, I do not miss Ron Zook. Not at all.
Unfortunately we will be the cupcakes then.
You're definitely not the only one. In fact you seem to be in the majority in this thread, which is fairly surprising to me considering the talent we will lose and the major jumps in critical areas of our team will need to make. And as someone who in the preseason thought we had a good shot of winning at least 8 and even a chance at winning 10, so I'm not completely bereft of optimistic thinking, people saying our ceiling is 9 wins this upcoming year seems borderline insane. I'd probably handicap it as follows:
v. TBD cupcake: Just win (W)
v. Kansas: Losing our top 2, perhaps 3 players on defense, this will be a tough team to keep up with. Likely loss. (L)
v. CMU: Definitely not a pushover as while they aren't one of the good MAC teams, they do have an uncanny ability of keeping games close. Likely close win. ( W)
@Neb: Frost era is over. With the talent they can pull, all they need is a coach. Yes, we can win this, but I'd put this in the probably loss column. They are certainly trending up. (L)
@PSU: We can win this one but very likely loss. (L)
v. Purdue: I'd call this a tossup, but they've certainly had our number and they're bringing in high quality recruits. Defense will need to show up. (L)
v. Michigan: I'd love to see us win this one. It'd make my season even if we lost every other game, but almost certain loss. (L)
@Oregon: Consider it a win if we lose by less than 35. Certain loss (L)
v Minn: We have their number and quite frankly, I see them as a not good team with a subpar skittish quarterback. It's somewhere between slight favorite to tossup (W)
vMSU: In theory we could be a slight favorite as they have a lot of things to work out themselves, but hard to tell. This might be a should win but don't game (L)
@Rut: We likely will be a small dog in this one, but we seem to play better on the road, and I'm not sold on them. This might be a should lose but instead win game (W)
@NW: This will be somewhere between slight dog and tossup. That said, Northwestern was one of the better B10 West teams this past year and sadly, I think with our losses on defense, we fall short (L)
So put we down for 4-8 for games in the following categories:
Certain win: vTBD cupcake (W)
Likely win: vCMU (L)
Slight favorite: vMSU (L), vMinn (W)
Tossup: vPur (L)
Slight dog: @NW (L), @Rut (W)
Likely loss: @Neb, vKansas, vPSU
Almost certain loss: @Mich
Certain loss: @Oregon
I think the fair over/under for wins next season is around 5 and it will either trend down to 4.5 or up to 5.5 depending on our offseason.
Illini4Chief
- TENNESSEE
Zookster: Got his place in Illini History: Beat O. State AT O State......Rose Bowl Trip when the Rose Bowl was THE Bowl. I dont see these stats coming to us soon...so tip of the hat to Zook. Made the trip to California for the Rose Bowl...93K in the stands....truly electric with Lots of Illini Fans....it was a magical time.
Last edited:
skyIdub
Winged Warrior
Honestly I've done both, but definitely lean towards the specific thread. I have a genuinely, sometimes unfortunately....SQUIRREL attention span sometimes.
IlliniFanHere
- New York
I met Zook at a sort of "meet and greet"... fantastic personality, guy you would have a beer with....excellent repore with fans....yes it was magical, but sadly went south.....but that victory at Ohio State and The Rose Bowl were special.
- Status