Am I the only one that thinks all of this talk about our schedule being so difficult next year are kind of overreacting? Don't get me wrong - we have to get OUR house in order, or none of it will matter. However, I guess I just don't see how this is immediate cause for pessimism:
vs. [TBD - Eastern Illinois] ... should win, or else we suck anyway!
vs. Kansas ... will be a tough test, but it is at home and won't they lose a lot?
vs. Central Michigan ... see comment about EIU game.
at Nebraska ... tough game but no tougher than playing at Kinnick this year, IMO. In other words, we will have our chances.
at Penn State ... likely loss, okay there is one.
vs. Purdue ... we have no right to take them lightly, but it is at home and they will at worst be "in our peer group," lol.
vs. Michigan ... another likely loss, so there is two. Maybe some Red Grange magic??
at Oregon ... likely loss #3, but most years have three likely losses.
vs. Minnesota ... I'm sure it will be a tough game, but it is at home and we have owned them for a couple years now. Certainly not a game you write off.
vs. Michigan State ... we will see how much they improve right off the bat, but again - this is just not a HOME game that you assume a loss for.
at Rutgers ... I see this similar to your given "at Wisconsin" game or something - probably underdogs, but it's not like playing in the Horseshoe.
at Northwestern ... again, ABSOLUTELY not a game where you assume a loss! It's barely an away game. And, if the stadium is being built as planned, this game will be at a venue where it is an Illini home game (Wrigley, Soldier Field, etc.).
FFS, you could (perhaps foolishly) even dream of 9-3 there, but I think fans could definitely be at least cautiously optimistic of winning six...
You're definitely not the only one. In fact you seem to be in the majority in this thread, which is fairly surprising to me considering the talent we will lose and the major jumps in critical areas of our team will need to make. And as someone who in the preseason thought we had a good shot of winning at least 8 and even a chance at winning 10, so I'm not completely bereft of optimistic thinking, people saying our ceiling is 9 wins this upcoming year seems borderline insane. I'd probably handicap it as follows:
v. TBD cupcake: Just win (W)
v. Kansas: Losing our top 2, perhaps 3 players on defense, this will be a tough team to keep up with. Likely loss. (L)
v. CMU: Definitely not a pushover as while they aren't one of the good MAC teams, they do have an uncanny ability of keeping games close. Likely close win. ( W)
@Neb: Frost era is over. With the talent they can pull, all they need is a coach. Yes, we can win this, but I'd put this in the probably loss column. They are certainly trending up. (L)
@PSU: We can win this one but very likely loss. (L)
v. Purdue: I'd call this a tossup, but they've certainly had our number and they're bringing in high quality recruits. Defense will need to show up. (L)
v. Michigan: I'd love to see us win this one. It'd make my season even if we lost every other game, but almost certain loss. (L)
@Oregon: Consider it a win if we lose by less than 35. Certain loss (L)
v Minn: We have their number and quite frankly, I see them as a not good team with a subpar skittish quarterback. It's somewhere between slight favorite to tossup (W)
vMSU: In theory we could be a slight favorite as they have a lot of things to work out themselves, but hard to tell. This might be a should win but don't game (L)
@Rut: We likely will be a small dog in this one, but we seem to play better on the road, and I'm not sold on them. This might be a should lose but instead win game (W)
@NW: This will be somewhere between slight dog and tossup. That said, Northwestern was one of the better B10 West teams this past year and sadly, I think with our losses on defense, we fall short (L)
So put we down for 4-8 for games in the following categories:
Certain win: vTBD cupcake (W)
Likely win: vCMU (L)
Slight favorite: vMSU (L), vMinn (W)
Tossup: vPur (L)
Slight dog: @NW (L), @Rut (W)
Likely loss: @Neb, vKansas, vPSU
Almost certain loss: @Mich
Certain loss: @Oregon
I think the fair over/under for wins next season is around 5 and it will either trend down to 4.5 or up to 5.5 depending on our offseason.