NIL Thread (Name, Image, Likeness Rule)
I just went down that rabbit hole, now I feel like I need a shower. Seems super sketchy.
They’re offering 25% of a pool of athlete NIL earnings. If you dig into it little further, they’re expecting “investors” to earn an IRR of 12%… Best I could tell they use “investor” money to drum up NIL deals for that particular pool of athletes, then if they’re successful the “investor” gets a portion of that revenue.
I’d love to compare Kentucky and Oakland’s NIL spend. What those UK big donors must be thinking now 🫠
Joel Goodson
- respect my decision™
lol. pretty flippin' good
sbillini
- st petersburg, fl
Essentially looks like:
- Pay the athlete an upfront sum (generated from investor funds) to acquire "0-25%" of the NIL rights for that athlete.
- From that 0-25%, some of it "could" be shared with the investors
- Work with the athlete to maximize the NIL revenue (and, thus, maximize the 0-25% share)
Actually doesn't seem that shady upfront. When you think about it, sports agents kind of do the same thing, though I don't think they ask for an upfront payment, so sports agents have more skin in the game than this kind of system does.
But, to me, the most concerning part is the "Investors could revenue a multiple of investment". That seems overly vague.
Secondarily, you have an adverse selection risk here. The athletes most likely to sign up for this are those that want to unload some of their NIL risk and receive the cash up front. The natural question is why would they want to do that? I guess there's other reasons as well - cash strapped families?
The most interesting thing here is whether they can add some sophistication to the NIL sponsorship process. Maybe even get some national deals for athletes. Perhaps, not sold on that, but if they can raise the ceiling for what athletes NIL possibilities, could be a real business.
sbillini
- st petersburg, fl
Signed up for a account and looked at what the terms are for illini MBB. seems to essentially be setup up like a private equity vehicle (flat % management fee + % carried interest going to NILLY). In this case NILLY keeps 1% of everything invested plus 5% of all NIL retained from the athlete.
NILLY gets 25% of the athlete's NIL for an average of 114k upfront payment (seems to imply athletes make, on average at least ~500k in NIL, but i'm guessing it's higher than that.
All this assumes the "historical" projections hold true (15% loss rate, average NIL amounts remain the same as they are now). Looks like NILLY buckets Illini MBB in same class as most programs (i.e. default assumptions being made in terms of how much NIL an athlete can generate, loss ratios, etc.). i ran the same scenario for kentucky MBB, and the output is the exact same - not sure how that's supposed to work. Either they're not doing their homework on a program level basis or they're just averaging it across all programs and will come out fine for them. Football seems to have slightly different numbers.
NILLY gets 25% of the athlete's NIL for an average of 114k upfront payment (seems to imply athletes make, on average at least ~500k in NIL, but i'm guessing it's higher than that.
All this assumes the "historical" projections hold true (15% loss rate, average NIL amounts remain the same as they are now). Looks like NILLY buckets Illini MBB in same class as most programs (i.e. default assumptions being made in terms of how much NIL an athlete can generate, loss ratios, etc.). i ran the same scenario for kentucky MBB, and the output is the exact same - not sure how that's supposed to work. Either they're not doing their homework on a program level basis or they're just averaging it across all programs and will come out fine for them. Football seems to have slightly different numbers.
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Brookslyn
- Los Angeles, CA
Anyone else jump on the bandwagon with the ONIT Athlete cards? I received 1 hanger and 4 platinum packs today. They are pricey, but the athletes benefit a decent percentage from these. I also think this will be the only way to get licensed (ie school logo not removed) collegiate trading cards for most of the players.
Some things tonote:
1) The base set of 15 cards represents the entire team! You can easily get these by buying 2-3 packs. I suspect you'll be able to get the base 15 card set on eBay for much less if you don't care about trying for the specialty cards and autographs. I might even give some away here if I end up with lots of them.
2) Based on news today, they will probably be the only 2 Dain Danja Illinois cards to ever be made... unless Onit makes an expansion set.
3) 1st cards of Marcus Domask. 1st and maybe last autographs of Domask in Illini uniform?
4) 1st cards of Ty Rodgers including autographs.
5) 1st cards of pretty much everyone like Amani, Sencire, etc...
Here's an ASMRy video I made ripping open 1 hanger pack. I'll post the platinum pack (24 hanger packs) once I've opened them! Hoping to get some good autos!
Some things tonote:
1) The base set of 15 cards represents the entire team! You can easily get these by buying 2-3 packs. I suspect you'll be able to get the base 15 card set on eBay for much less if you don't care about trying for the specialty cards and autographs. I might even give some away here if I end up with lots of them.
2) Based on news today, they will probably be the only 2 Dain Danja Illinois cards to ever be made... unless Onit makes an expansion set.
3) 1st cards of Marcus Domask. 1st and maybe last autographs of Domask in Illini uniform?
4) 1st cards of Ty Rodgers including autographs.
5) 1st cards of pretty much everyone like Amani, Sencire, etc...
Here's an ASMRy video I made ripping open 1 hanger pack. I'll post the platinum pack (24 hanger packs) once I've opened them! Hoping to get some good autos!
chrisRunner7
- Spokane, WA
So... where is the cheapest place to buy a pack or two? Just their official ONIT website?
Chad Fleck
- Eureka, IL
I'm sure this has been thought of and written about, but here's something I've realized.
NIL amount availability is a reflection of the success of the school to attract and educate their students well enough to move onto successful careers that make them a good income PLUS a good enough marketing and student atmosphere/program health arrangement to get this affluent alumni base to contribute to the NIL fund.
So, in a sense, NIL availability has made the entire university and their alumni base more invested and influential to their sports teams.
Seems like a good thing from that perspective.
NIL amount availability is a reflection of the success of the school to attract and educate their students well enough to move onto successful careers that make them a good income PLUS a good enough marketing and student atmosphere/program health arrangement to get this affluent alumni base to contribute to the NIL fund.
So, in a sense, NIL availability has made the entire university and their alumni base more invested and influential to their sports teams.
Seems like a good thing from that perspective.
Brookslyn
- Los Angeles, CA
I think that is the easiest and fastest way. If you for sure want an auto then you can buy the platinum pack which is the price of 5 packs but they insert a 6th pack that has a guaranteed auto. Basically the quoted card count of 14 cards per pack seems to only apply to the base 40 cards. If you get any of the holo or autos these are in addition to the 14 cards so if you get an auto you actually get 15 cards from the packs I e opened.
Someone noted that they saw cards at Meijer but they went back the next day and they were gone.
Onit has said they are working to get the cards to the college sports venues but that's too late for MBB this year.
That makes sense and it makes me wonder what the breakdown is between those individual smaller donations and the mega donors
Brookslyn
- Los Angeles, CA
Okay I haven't kept up with NFTs but at one point there was discussion of a mechanism to make the transaction fees have some logic that would pay out a portion to say the original artist of the NFT with each transaction. The idea is essentially a royalty in the block chain. I was thinking how powerful this could be for our military. Imagine getting NFT challenge coins that mean something to you through your career but also have value down the road to collectors. There might be some national security issues with this but the concept could work for athletes also... To be clear, I'm not pushing NFTs, just throwing out how things like NIL and NFTs have the potential to really change the landscape.
chrisRunner7
- Spokane, WA
Awesome, thanks. I bought a couple of packs. I stopped collecting most cards in high school but I've kept up just collecting cards of Illini basketball players-- e.g., those Panini autographed cards of Kofi, Plummer, Trent Frazier, etc. I may turn to eBay for a Domask autographed card 'cause I would love to have that one.
I have been wondering when I would see an actual set of Illini basketball trading cards... I've seen Gonzaga-only cards in the grocery stores here for a while.
I bought the big box, treating myself in the afterglow of an Elite Eight season. Would really be happy with any auto but fully expecting a walk-on.
Brookslyn
- Los Angeles, CA
The autos are only for Shannon, Hawkins, Domask and Rodgers!!!! So you will be happy! Maybe you will land a 1 of 1? I really like the blackout card look!I bought the big box, treating myself in the afterglow of an Elite Eight season. Would really be happy with any auto but fully expecting a walk-on.
Brookslyn
- Los Angeles, CA
Okay made my first real "rippping" video and it was kinda fun doing it. I definitely need to flip around the camera setup and get better lighting.
I ripped open 4 platinum boxes! Got a Marcus Domask and 3 Terrence Shannon Jr autos. No Coleman Hawkins and no Ty Rodgers autos. I did get a really cool Marcus Domask Blackout, but only 1 in 25 packs so I think those might be quite rare.
I'm going to post a summary video this weekend with my thoughts but here is a 30 min video of the various cards I got.
I ripped open 4 platinum boxes! Got a Marcus Domask and 3 Terrence Shannon Jr autos. No Coleman Hawkins and no Ty Rodgers autos. I did get a really cool Marcus Domask Blackout, but only 1 in 25 packs so I think those might be quite rare.
I'm going to post a summary video this weekend with my thoughts but here is a 30 min video of the various cards I got.
Quit hogging all the Shannons
1 auto, 1 blackout, both Ty. Did laugh when the first card I opened was indeed a walk-on, as I (sort-of) predicted above re: the autographs.
The photo cards are fine but the cartoon drawing ones I think are poorly done, look nothing like the player.
Overall box was Quincy-heavy and Coleman-light.
Don't think I got any 1 of 1s. Hope Ty enjoys his proceeds.
Brookslyn
- Los Angeles, CA
Did you get the full base set at least?
Bought both of my boys a Platinum Box. The boxes arrived yesterday, and the boys couldn't wait to get home to open them! They have decided to open one pack a day (I can't wait to see how excited they are again today). Yesterday, they each opened one pack (one Shannon heavy and one Hawkins heavy). Can't wait to see their faces when they open the with an autographed card!