hooraybeer
- Pittsburgh, PA
not really that small of a sample size. i'm no stats guy but i imagine there is a statistical significance here... who has SPSS?
Ohio State 72, Illinois 60 Postgame
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There's very little sense in March Madness. UCLA limping into the tournament as an 11 seed and making it to the final 4 a couple years back didn't make much sense.
altgeld88
- Arlington, Virginia
I opened the game thread with the following plea:
Pedal to the metal from the opening tip, please.
Yeah. Well. Losses sting. When we lose to Ohio State it's especially painful for me. After the game, I worked for a while and then took a long, two-hour walk around my hilly neighborhood until sunset. Afterward I realized I've made peace with this team and this season.
We have amazing freshmen and I'm looking forward to seeing them develop and lead. We have performed remarkably well at times given our lack of seasoned PG, which most fans projected last summer would be a challenge for the team. Jayden has done well in that role given his inexperience.
If these guys show up at the tip and compete for even 30 of 40 mins they can beat anyone, as we've seen. Anything less than that and, against talent, the ceiling drops fast. When they don't show up for a half, as they didn't on Thursday and Sunday, well, we either get a thrilling, generational comeback or the long tail of defeat. (OSU is not a bad team; they're just largely young and, until we put wind in their sails yesterday, were demoralized.)
I hope we play into the second weekend of the tourney. I'll enjoy each game remaining to the limit because I adore our program, our university, and support (to the wall) these magnificent guys who wear the O&B on our behalf. I no longer have any expectations, however. It is what it is.
Pedal to the metal from the opening tip, please.
Yeah. Well. Losses sting. When we lose to Ohio State it's especially painful for me. After the game, I worked for a while and then took a long, two-hour walk around my hilly neighborhood until sunset. Afterward I realized I've made peace with this team and this season.
We have amazing freshmen and I'm looking forward to seeing them develop and lead. We have performed remarkably well at times given our lack of seasoned PG, which most fans projected last summer would be a challenge for the team. Jayden has done well in that role given his inexperience.
If these guys show up at the tip and compete for even 30 of 40 mins they can beat anyone, as we've seen. Anything less than that and, against talent, the ceiling drops fast. When they don't show up for a half, as they didn't on Thursday and Sunday, well, we either get a thrilling, generational comeback or the long tail of defeat. (OSU is not a bad team; they're just largely young and, until we put wind in their sails yesterday, were demoralized.)
I hope we play into the second weekend of the tourney. I'll enjoy each game remaining to the limit because I adore our program, our university, and support (to the wall) these magnificent guys who wear the O&B on our behalf. I no longer have any expectations, however. It is what it is.
pruman91
- Paducah, Ky
I might add we have a couple of exciting recruits coming in next year and a bonifide burger boy coming in the year after that (MJ)................We will excite and anger every year ........That's sports and we are sports fans........duh........I know that's a captain obvious statement , but i really think some here expect to win a natty every year and to do it undefeated.......
I am very happy with our staff and players ......could i be more satisfied ?????......h*lls yeah and one year we will hoist the trophy we are all wanting, with all our hearts........I really really hope so............
I don't think the team ever shoots well from 3. But look at all of our big wins:
UCLA: Shannon 8-9
Texas: Mayer 5-5
Wisconsin: Hawkins 6-9
Wisconsin game 2: no one, defensive win as much as anything
Rutgers: no one was great
Northwestern: Shannon 4-5
So looking at all our best wins, someone was on fire from 3 almost every time. But even in those games, the team total was typically not great.
sacraig
- The desert
I'm actually not all that convinced we are a bad shooting team so much as a team that often takes dumb 3 point shots.
Is there a statistic that exists for 3pt% that is restricted to good shots? Probably not.
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adogster
- Scottsdale, AZ
I do. I always bet the opponent. If we win the game, I'm happy. If we lose the game it must mean I cashed in... not a total loss.
The question becomes them why do we take so many dumb three point shot so consistently?
I'm beginning to wonder if it is result of mediocre passing, poor ball movement, and we simply do not play together as a team.?
I think Coach is doing everything humanly possible to mold the guys and lead them in the right way. But there are two sides to the equation. As others have noted... at some point all the ‘leading’ in the World isn’t going to matter if your mentor-ship is not being followed or taken seriously enough.
When CBS cut to Coach’s face during the game his reactions often seemed curious. His demeanor seemed a bit different. It’s almost like he was watching what was going on out there and saying to himself... ‘What the (heck) is this? What can I try to do differently for these guys any more?’
Coach has often spoken about how much he ‘loves’ this team. And that is certainly genuine.
It’s like parent who has done everything they can for their kid to prepare them for a given situation... and then you witness that situation happening and things are just going sideways all over again.
As an outside observer we can’t take the pulse of this group as Coach can every day. But this just might be a generational thing of someone middle-age trying to lead young men who are used to doing things their own way. And that is a tough hurdle for anyone to span. Said another way... is there any coach anywhere who would handle this differently and get better results?
Lots of free-spirits in this group. Nothing wrong with that... but some of that has to be reined in to create a cohesive unit. Still waiting on that one.
In addition to all of the other comments, one specific thing that I have noticed with this team is that the entry passes to Dain and Coleman are often too low and not on the right side leading to a steal or not receiving the ball at the ideal spot for them to score down low.
I rarely post, but want to offer this for comment...First, let me say I am a huge BU fan. He is the leader most responsible for the revitalization of Illini basketball. However, I have never considered BU to be a top tier x's and o's guy. Certainly competent, but not outstanding. In a very rarely seen off season where we needed to replace THREE assistant coaches, I think we got lucky finding those replacements, and the recruiting results were very good. However, we lost three experienced guys that most certainly helped in formulating an offense and/or defense to capitalize on this team's assets, while ALSO helping with in game adjustments. I have no inside knowledge, but it seemed that BU teams had a more well designed offensive scheme in the past, and a willingness/ability for in game adjustments. Something other than chucking 3's. Gentry was with BU at SFA, and with him here. Ayo and Kofi can make your offense look good, but I think the lost assistants may have had something to do with this teams limitations.
We went from John Groce mediocrity to Top 5 in the Polls. What would you call that? Weber hadn’t gotten us to Top 5 ranking since 05-06. In a vacuum your reply is true, but you can’t cherry pick like that and expect to be taken seriously in these threads.
Btw pretty tough to get a 1 seed in March and Chattanooga was a 12 seed, at least get the seeds right before you try to sound like an expert
I just tested their performance against the spread in games. When only counting games that started before 12 PM Central time I got a p-value of 0.1567, so not significant. When including games up until 12:30 PM, I got a p-value of 0.2387, so even more non significant.
It really is astounding. I mean, if you watched them drill the offense over and over in practice, you'd wonder why they can't run it right. "OK, Coleman, pass it to Terrence on the wing and jog through a cut. Matt, replace Coleman at the top of the key. Terrence, throw a lazy pass to Matt and just stand there. Matt, point to the ground next to you and wait for the screener to come, then shoot a three anyway. MATT, YOU M*#&$@F*#@$, I SAID POINT TO THE GROUND NEXT TO YOU, NOT THE GUY WHO'S GOING TO SET A SCREEN. RUN IT AGAIN!"
Why the hell does anyone think what we're seeing on the court is what is being designed? You can see some semblance of the spread, but guys are either just jogging through their cuts or abandoning them completely. It's not what Underwood is trying to teach. He's ultimately accountable for getting his guys to buy in and criticism of that point is valid, but the whole notion of "making adjustments" is kind of out the window if you can't get your team to run the base set right.
I'm not happy with how this has all unfolded throughout the season, but I'm also not going to ignore what Underwood has been able to accomplish over the past ten seasons based on it. If we something similar next year I'll start to worry a bit more.
I agree with this. I don't know what the actual statistics bear out, but it does feel like we miss the shots that other teams make - key situations where we do everything right to get a wide open three point attempt and then we miss it. Obviously we aren't going to make them all, but it sure seems like we miss more than we should.
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We had basically the same issue last year. The offense consisted of occasionally feeding Kofi in the post, otherwise passing the ball around the perimeter and chucking up a 3 pointer. Very little offensive motion. We got away with it last year because of Kofi and we occasionally had Plummer or Trent get hot from 3.
It's not new, it's not a sustainable offensive model, I'm not sure why we expect it to change and I'm not sure why BU isn't responsible for it.
Who said he's not responsible for it? He's accountable for everything that happens with this team. My issue with the armchair analysis on this is that people try to claim some issue with X's and O's that are based on a dumb and generally untrue narrative about tactical inflexibility that popped up when Underwood was at OSU or just some personal preference to have basketball look like it did 20 years ago, or 40 years ago, or whatever. People (and at least one player) screamed bloody murder about the five out sets they ran earlier this year, and he changed it, and the team still has the same issues people were pointing to. Maybe it's not the X's and O's?
As for last year, he had an All-American post player and a bunch of guys who could shoot, and virtually nobody who could attack the rim, so what did you think the team was going to do? Trent did his best but he was too small to do it consistently. Plummer was even smaller than that. Da'Monte shot 28% -- 28%! -- from inside the arc. If you think you're going to be successful running the Princeton offense to get back-door cuts for a bunch of clean-cut young men against the defensive schemes teams run today, you do you, I guess.
Underwood has had some pretty successful offensive teams over the years. The question that remains is whether this is an issue related to his current personnel, or if it's a trend. He's responsible either way but I don't think this year's offense is just what you get when you get Brad Underwood.
But I’d argue nearly all that prior success is mainly due to one anomaly, once in a generation type player: Kofi Cockburn.
IL Conference record with Kofi: 44–16 (73.3%)
Let’s look at Underwood’s conference records without Kofi and the talent he had.
2016-17 Ok State (9-9). NBA picks: Jawun Evans
2017-18 Illinois (4-14) NBA picks: 0
2018-19 Illinois (7-13) NBA picks: Ayo
2022-23 Illinois (11-9) NBA picks: Shannon, Mayer, Hawkins (possibly)
Total: 31-45
With Kofi: 44-16
Without Kofi: 31-45
Clearly Underwood is an elite coach when he has the best big man in the country. But if he doesn’t have that guy (and there just aren’t many guys like that ever to recruit), and he simply has to rely on good wing talent and his system, he’s proven to be an average at best coach. Average is better than Groce, but a level that got Weber fired in his latter years. This is Underwood’s 6th season, if a season like this year is the norm going forward (not terrible, not great, new roster every year) I don’t think most will be happy with that.
I think the main problem this year is it doesn’t feel like anything is being built up again for the immediate future. It’s a team built for this year, then next year whole new team.
If you want to show what he can do with 'good wing talent' you really shouldn't count '18 and '19, because he had no good wing talent in those years. There's not a system in the world that could've turned his first roster here into a winner. (Also, that OSU team he had was the best offensive team in the country that year and was playing in an absolute gauntlet of a conference.)
But honestly, I also don't know why people act like Underwood hasn't had success as a coach. He's won games at every stop, and a lot of them.
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