According to the internets, Maryland plays on something called FieldTurf (same thing we have). Rain could still be a factor but we'd better hope for a Caddyshack-level storm.
An interesting study in behavioral economics there for the taking.
This is a common misconception but very wrong. Vegas books don't set lines trying get "even" money wagered on both sides.
Maryland is 5-1. They have played probably the weakest schedule in the conference. That being said, we are improving on defense, but our offense is just plain awful. To me, UI +14 sounds about right.
I am not sure where you got that bit of information, but unless you can elaborate on that point, I could not disagree more. The books want to generally target "even" money wagered on both sides of the spread bets (completely different game for prop bets and ML bets). If they did not care about getting "even" money on each end, then the line would not move like it does between opening and closing line. In general, with more information available to bettors, the opening line is usually a decent predictive measure of the game, as the books do not want lopsided bets if they can help it (the bettor is more educated today than anytime before). In any event, the book is trying to not predict the score, but rather, get action on the game (and close to even money on each side).
It doesn't work that way. Sure they have to decrease their risk of loss and can't have their position be completely at risk. There will always be some balance and the odds can be shifted. But they are NOT in the business of just collecting vig. You can even see from the guys who do it. “That’s a fallacy,” former William Hill and Caesars Sportsbook director Nick Bogdanovich said. “It never happens that way. The books always have decisions. That’s the bottom line. And some are bigger than others.”
www.reviewjournal.com
How's that work? Do you sit between them?
Thank you. Interesting read. I completely agree with their approach in regard to risk, and I was slightly exaggerated with my statement. A lot of game theory involved, and I know that they side with sharp bettors and their own models. However, as I stated, the lines have no real basis in trying to be predictive in nature (which the original poster mentioned much earlier in the thread). However, it is still definitely true that balance is important to them. I stand by my point that their opening lines are designed to entice action (with the risk they are willing to accept based on their true predictive analytics), but maintaining balance is still important to them (that is why I said "close" to even money).It doesn't work that way. Sure they have to decrease their risk of loss and can't have their position be completely at risk. There will always be some balance and the odds can be shifted. But they are NOT in the business of just collecting vig. You can even see from the guys who do it. “That’s a fallacy,” former William Hill and Caesars Sportsbook director Nick Bogdanovich said. “It never happens that way. The books always have decisions. That’s the bottom line. And some are bigger than others.”
“Ideally, if you could be in that position, it would be great. But it’s somewhat of a myth to be able to divide action equally on every game,” he said. “We’re going to have a vested interest in every game in every sport.” said Red Rock Resort sportsbook director Chuck Esposito.
Vegas actually takes a position in most of the games. They trust that the guys who set their lines are so good at their job that they are trusting them to actually gamble with their lines to win money. The quotes are from the below, but any interview you see with the the actual oddsmakers, they always scoff and laugh at the notion that they are just collecting vig and collecting even $.
Fact or fiction: Do sportsbooks balance bets to lock in profit?
There is a popular belief that sportsbooks take an equal amount of money on both sides of a game to guarantee a profit. Is it fact or fiction?
100% accurate. Casinos will always take on calculated risk (even bad risk at times when they know the bettor will lose it back), but the vig runs the joint.
I guess my college sweetheart should have been hyphenated.
You should probably start thinking about cancelling your hotel reservation in Indy or else you will be losing money
Hotel? I bought a condo. Lol
Hi I have the leading minds on every angle of a game. I’m here to collect the vig and not win $ from some bozo who had a good feeling about a game from his cup of coffee. Does that makes sense to you?
Hyphenation won’t do it. Reword: “My college sweetheart, now my wife, and I have never left early.” Hope you and she will be rewarded on Saturday. Go Illini.
