Pregame: Illinois vs Iowa, Saturday, February 24th, 1:15pm CT, BTN

Status
Not open for further replies.
#101      

Fighter of the Nightman

Fighter of the Nightman
Chicago, IL
Fighter of the Nightman
- We just lost to a bad PSU game by utterly self-imploding in the last 40 seconds, full of fundamentally unsound and mentally weak plays.
- We only have a few games left to play ourselves off of the 4/5 seed line, but it would take a massive change in focus, energy and defensive execution.
- We are hosting a rival at home in what will be the last weekend home game many of these guys will ever play in Champaign.
- With the narrative (and unfortunately the evidence) out there that our defense has collapsed, we have a run-and-gun offense coming to town, representing a GOLDEN opportunity to prove the world wrong.
- We had one five in a row vs. Iowa until they beat this squad in an intense, close game in Iowa City that had all of the taunting and pageantry around the Krush ticket scandal.

We have said this all too often the past two years, but if these guys don't come out FURIOUS to beat our biggest current rival at home when we so desperately need to truly get hot and establish some confidence/momentum down the stretch ... well, our "overreactions" in the PSU postgame thread will not be so outlandish.

I've had my night to sleep on the PSU loss, and while I am still stunned, disappointed and most importantly really worried ... I'm ready to be won back over. D-O-M-I-N-A-T-E Iowa. DON'T let up, no matter the score. Go for blood. Try to get 100. Leave the starters in. Make Fran make his funny angry face!
 
#102      

illiniguy24

illiniguy24
illiniguy24
skyIdub said:
The silver lining is I am way less invested emotionally in the remainder of this season now. We aren't winning the B1G. We aren't going on some magical March run.
They can get hot and win two or three....maybe four...but I think that is it. Unless there is a HUGE defensive change in the last month. Unlikely.
That's the reality of this team now....so the games are not as emotional.
Click to expand...
The only thing I want is a sweet 16, and that will remain the only thing I want until it happens

But my expectations of that have dropped significantly over the last 10ish days
 
#104      

Fighter of the Nightman

Fighter of the Nightman
Chicago, IL
Fighter of the Nightman
Fighter of the Nightman said:
- We just lost to a bad PSU game by utterly self-imploding in the last 40 seconds, full of fundamentally unsound and mentally weak plays.
- We only have a few games left to play ourselves off of the 4/5 seed line, but it would take a massive change in focus, energy and defensive execution.
- We are hosting a rival at home in what will be the last weekend home game many of these guys will ever play in Champaign.
- With the narrative (and unfortunately the evidence) out there that our defense has collapsed, we have a run-and-gun offense coming to town, representing a GOLDEN opportunity to prove the world wrong.
- We had one five in a row vs. Iowa until they beat this squad in an intense, close game in Iowa City that had all of the taunting and pageantry around the Krush ticket scandal.

We have said this all too often the past two years, but if these guys don't come out FURIOUS to beat our biggest current rival at home when we so desperately need to truly get hot and establish some confidence/momentum down the stretch ... well, our "overreactions" in the PSU postgame thread will not be so outlandish.

I've had my night to sleep on the PSU loss, and while I am still stunned, disappointed and most importantly really worried ... I'm ready to be won back over. D-O-M-I-N-A-T-E Iowa. DON'T let up, no matter the score. Go for blood. Try to get 100. Leave the starters in. Make Fran make his funny angry face!
Click to expand...
... had won* five in a row, lol. It's been a long day. Any way, I wanted to look back at Illini history to see if any of our "good" teams truly had a loss that turned things around somewhat permanently. I figured that would at least give me some hope. This cannot just be a temporary motivating factor (e.g., our 2013 team got hot again during the middle of the year, including upsetting #1 Indiana, but then we fizzled out a bit in early March). This is all I've got:

2021 L vs. #21 Ohio State on 1/16. This made for a 2-game losing streak (including a loss to a bad Maryland team at home), and it dropped us to #22 in the polls with a 9-5 (5-3) record. With the exception of a bit of a "funky" loss at MSU, we would go on to win 14 of our next 15 games on the way to a BTT title. We all know what happened to Loyola, but you could argue that frustrating loss to OSU at home (and I remember it ... it was VERY frustrating!) lit a fire.

2020 L at Rutgers on 2/15. This was our fourth straight loss to drop us to 16-9 (8-6) on the year, and we got blown out. The very next game, we won at #9 Penn State and won 5 of 6 to end the year, culminating in defeating #18 Iowa at home as Kofi blocked Garza at the buzzer. I remember thinking that squad was hitting its stride during that Iowa game, and I was so excited for March Madness ... enter COVID.

2004 L at Northwestern on 1/14. This loss dropped us out of the top 25 for the first time in years, and even as a young kid I remember it causing some to turn on Weber already (this WAS "your father's Northwestern," haha). However, we'd win 14 of our next 16 games en route to an outright Big Ten title, with the only two losses being to BTT champion #10 Wisconsin. We'd then of course make the Sweet Sixteen.

2002 L vs. Michigan State on 2/3. This capped a 3-game losing streak to drop us to 15-7 (4-5). We'd win our final 8 regular season games to tie for the Big Ten championship and make the Sweet Sixteen.

Let's hope these guys have that fire in them ... because that quite literally is the only thing holding them back, and as another poster said it would be SUCH a waste to have this talented of an offense not be playing deep into March Madness.
 
#109      

ChiefGritty

ChiefGritty
Chicago, IL
ChiefGritty
john1952 said:
People are disappointed. However, I doubt many will join you in abandoning the coach and the team
Click to expand...
It's like some people know no other way than Fire The Coach Mode.

In fairness, modern era Illinois fans who jump there early have never been wrong. But still.

I've said this on both sides of the divide: firing the coach is not a punishment, retaining the coach is not a reward. If the chances of long term success are stronger by taking your chances on the open marketplace than they are by staying the course, you make the move. If not, you don't.

We're so, SO far away from that being the case.
 
#110      

Fighter of the Nightman

Fighter of the Nightman
Chicago, IL
Fighter of the Nightman
NarrowJ said:
Eh... All the crazy people are on here. The other 99 percent of the fanbase... well, I'll just go ahead and make the wild guess that folks will still show up to the game on Saturday.
Click to expand...
I agree with your overall point, but I feel this is a double-edged sword. While the casual fan might be typically late to turn on a coach, it also seems to take less for him to change his mind. A casual Illini fan in 2010 might have seen it as crazy for Weber to be on the hot seat - he gave us our best season ever just five years ago! However, by the end of 2011 it was ONLY a subset of diehards that were not getting antsy (e.g., making excuses about being "snake bitten" and talking about how future recruits were going to save us and other things that your casual fan just doesn't care about).

I agree that Underwood is in no real danger of "losing the fan base" as it stands today. Road losses in the Big Ten happen. HOWEVER, if a version of last night's game happens in the First Round of the Tournament and we go home early again, I think your average casual Illini fan will actually turn on him more often and more quickly than many who follow things like recruiting the transfer portal and look at our stats before and after he turned us around. We simply NEED to win a game in the Tournament this year, and we need to win two to have a majority of the fan base feel confident in our program going forward, IMO. We wasted our "gimme" of the #1 seed just two years after a losing season in 2021 ... we don't have any more left. And a loss at home to Iowa will indeed start to spell a narrative that we are "collapsing."

On that last note, narratives are REALLY fickle and can change with the wind. If we beat Iowa by 20, all of a sudden someone can easily make this argument:

- We just dominated our rival to win our 20th game for the fifth straight year, making Brad our only coach ever to achieve that here!
- Our only two losses in the last 10 games have been nail biters on the road ... that happens in the Big Ten!
- We have now won 6 of 8 with four winnable-yet-huge opportunities left. Let's go do this!

But if we lose, it's so easy to flip the script to this:

- We just lost two straight, and we have literally been a .500 Big Ten team in the past month.
- We just gave up over 80 points or more for the fourth time in five games ... our defense is broken.
- We are now on track to possibly have the same number of regular season losses as we did last year - a year we all considered a massive disappointment.
- For the second year in a row, our team of transfers looked great early on and started to flounder as the season wore on, likely ending in another First Round loss this year. Anyone think it's getting better next year?!

I think Underwood is clearly the man for the job, and I am happy we have him ... but we need to win Saturday or die trying.
 
Last edited:
#113      

illini80

illini80
Forgottonia
illini80
LvilleILL said:
Last thing I will say about the Penn State loss. If nothing wakes them up defensively after this game, then the defense will not improve at all. There should be way better effort in this game. The players looked so pissed off the game, so I am holding out hope for what is to come. Show some damn, pride, it has gotten pathetic. This is the best offensive team we have had since 2005, we cannot waste it
Click to expand...
I can’t tell how much is effort and how much is scheme. LaTulip has talked several times about how we aren’t putting guys in situations to do well defensively. Too many different things being done instead of being really really good at one base defense. Players at times seem to be unsure what defense they are supposed to be in.
 
#115      

BfosterL

BfosterL
BfosterL
Illinialldayeveryday said:
This is not only a big game for the team but Underwood. He will lose this fanbase for good if this gets off the tracks.
Click to expand...
Huge game! My support for Underwood doesn't hinge on it through and I'm guessing the same for a majority of the fans. Most wins in the Big Ten since 2019 (brad inherited a dumpster fire) means more than a collapse at Penn State.
 
#116      

westcoastillini

W
westcoastillini
aaeismacgychel said:
I'm going to sound like an absolute loon, but this has all the makings if one of those oddball scores. You have 2 teams struggling to play defense and elite offensively and seems like both teams should easily hit 80 if not 90. And when things are this obvious and guaranteed, it just seems utter weirdness ensues. This will be the game both teams hunker down, throw body blows, refs call the game no blood no foul, and it ends in like a 54-48 victory. While I don't think the score will actually be that low, I just get the feeling this is going to be some ugly ugly basketball.
Click to expand...
Just Win baby.....
 
#119      

USAFILLINI

USAFILLINI
Florida
USAFILLINI
Defensive woes seem to be a common theme with BU led teams.

in the last five years, all of Bill Self's teams have been at least top 20 in ADJD, BU has had one his entire career (Historically you have to be top 20 to be a national title contender)

Taking this in mind, its really mind blowing that he would allow Hamer to run his defensive schemes.

We need a drastic change on defense, or we need to start becoming comfortable with the fact we are going to win a bunch of regular season games, and lose the second round in the tourney. I'm not saying fire BU, but there needs to be some serious pressure on him to bring on a Defensive minded assistant coach with actual experience.
 
#120      

Actually...

Actually...
Actually...
abchew2 said:
I’m not superstitious but they won’t be wearing the blue unis again this year I hope…
Click to expand...
IMG_20240223_081823.gif
 
#121      

altgeld88

altgeld88
Arlington, Virginia
altgeld88
USAFILLINI said:
Defensive woes seem to be a common theme with BU led teams.

in the last five years, all of Bill Self's teams have been at least top 20 in ADJD, BU has had one his entire career (Historically you have to be top 20 to be a national title contender)

Taking this in mind, its really mind blowing that he would allow Hamer to run his defensive schemes.

We need a drastic change on defense, or we need to start becoming comfortable with the fact we are going to win a bunch of regular season games, and lose the second round in the tourney. I'm not saying fire BU, but there needs to be some serious pressure on him to bring on a Defensive minded assistant coach with actual experience.
Click to expand...
Weren't we Top 20 in D early in the season (until January)? If so, what happened? All of our peers play a similar profile of non-con opponents.
 
#122      

OrangeBlue98

OrangeBlue98
Des Moines, IA
OrangeBlue98
ChiefGritty said:
It's like some people know no other way than Fire The Coach Mode.

In fairness, modern era Illinois fans who jump there early have never been wrong. But still.

I've said this on both sides of the divide: firing the coach is not a punishment, retaining the coach is not a reward. If the chances of long term success are stronger by taking your chances on the open marketplace than they are by staying the course, you make the move. If not, you don't.

We're so, SO far away from that being the case.
Click to expand...
Given some of the things I've expressed in the last several weeks, I'll just go on record and say that in no form am I advocating for Brad Underwood to be fired. I do think he's a good fit for this program, and given where the program was for the better part of a decade before he came in I'm very happy with what he's done at Illinois.

I don't back down from any of my comments about the issues related to the defense this year. I do feel like a staff change to bring a defensive expert on the staff would benefit things. It's not any different than a NFL team shaking its staff up if the head coach feels like a particular area needs improvement. Illinois would have a legitimate chance to make a Final Four if its defense was anywhere close to its offense.
 
#123      

USAFILLINI

USAFILLINI
Florida
USAFILLINI
altgeld88 said:
Weren't we Top 20 in D early in the season (until January)? If so, what happened? All of our peers play a similar profile of non-con opponents.
Click to expand...
Ranks in ADJOE for our first ten opponents (average ranking was 185)
EIU- 337
Oakland- 112
Marquette- 23 L
Valpo- 283
Southern- 298
W. Ill- 303
Rutgers- 272
FAU-13 W
TN- 21 L
Colgate- 189

I don't think it was our D was good, but the majority of the teams we were playing were really bad on O. Once we started to get into the tougher part of the schedule against established offenses, seems we struggled and dropped out of the top 20.

I hate this more than anyone, crazy high hopes for this team (put money down on us making the final four at the beginning of the season). Just think if we dont have a drastic change, we can expect an early exit from the tourney again
 
#124      

sacraig

sacraig
The desert
sacraig
USAFILLINI said:
Ranks in ADJOE for our first ten opponents (average ranking was 185)
EIU- 337
Oakland- 112
Marquette- 23 L
Valpo- 283
Southern- 298
W. Ill- 303
Rutgers- 272
FAU-13 W
TN- 21 L
Colgate- 189

I don't think it was our D was good, but the majority of the teams we were playing were really bad on O. Once we started to get into the tougher part of the schedule against established offenses, seems we struggled and dropped out of the top 20.

I hate this more than anyone, crazy high hopes for this team (put money down on us making the final four at the beginning of the season). Just think if we dont have a drastic change, we can expect an early exit from the tourney again
Click to expand...
That shouldn't really matter. The advanced metrics adjust for the quality of the opponent. That's what the "Adj" part of AdjD means.
 
#125      

altgeld88

altgeld88
Arlington, Virginia
altgeld88
sacraig said:
That shouldn't really matter. The advanced metrics adjust for the quality of the opponent. That's what the "Adj" part of AdjD means.
Click to expand...
You beat me to it, Professor. :) My question still stands: what happened that our D fell off the table in January? Did TSJ's absence and reinstatement mess up the mojo?
 
Status
Not open for further replies.