Pregame: Illinois vs Marquette, Tuesday, November 14th, 7:00pm CT, FS1
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The team that has more points at the end of the game will win, it's really that simple.
Is your selective bias appropriate here?
Amani shot 43% from 3 his senior year in hs so it seems like a good percentage play for him to take one or two wide open in rhythm threes per game when he gets the chance.
This almost feels like a setup for “name checks out”
I’m not taking the bait. Too easy.
This team needs to play to its strengths...and so far it is defense...for about 15 min. or less a game. There is enough depth and athleticism to press full court at times. And you have to remember....you can't lose if your opponent doesn't score. So hold 'em scoreless and hope someone can make a FT!!!
Bangkok Thai is the best restaurant in town and I will die on that hill.
Also, some very good Mexican food in Urbana.
I’m most curious to see how Ty (team) handles taking the ball up vs a press. How we handle this portion of the game will most likely determine the overall outcome.
Handling the pressure from any Shaka Smart team is always the issue. This will be a test for the point guard by committee and will set the defensive approach by opponents in upcoming games.
First of all, I would say Black Dog deserves its reputation as C-U’s best BBQ. My favorite is the balance between meatiness, richness, acidity, and astringency when having the smoked chicken in the Carolina Red sauce, with their vinegar-based coleslaw, rich twice-baked potato casserole, and an unsweetened ice tea.
Wood and Hog is Champaign-Urbana’s best kept secret when it comes to great BBQ. Try the turkey tips to enjoy a BBQ flavor you probably haven’t encountered before. Lot’s of good stuff there and they also have irregular items, such as on “Soul-food Sundays.”
Can expect a 30 to 60 minute wait at Blackdog, if you go right at meal time.
drsmitty74
- Rochester
Soooo, our tourney % goes down 6 yet, we are favored (according to this) against the #11 team in the country?Edit, it seems the graphic I was referring to is gone from the thread.
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Tyler Kolek, Big East Player of the Year, injures ankle in Marquette's win over Rider
https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/38867550/tyler-kolek-injures-ankle-marquette-win-rider
https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/38867550/tyler-kolek-injures-ankle-marquette-win-rider
Would think a sprained ankle will be ok by Tuesday.
Yeah, I was just reporting it. Hopefully, you are correct as I would rather Illinois beat them at full strength so they don't have an excuse as to why they lost.
Good question and point. I haven't looked much at the HS numbers. But 33% so far, KU included (50% officially, KU excluded) is pretty awesome for such a big guy. I admit that. Yeah, having killer rebounder like Amani that far from the basket is what is hard to live with for me (and Underwood too, I bet), but I will try to remove my admitted bias.
BTW, I do think we are shooting too many 3s as a team. We were very bad on doing that last year. But we're not looking fully fixed yet this year, where the KU game is the only game (out of 3) where we didn't do that (based on maximizing our scoring using the final shooting percentages).
Part of that adjustment means figuring out who (mostly, at least) won't be shooting them. The simplest changes are guys who weren't ready to be shooting them to begin with. SH was likely one of them based more on his FTs last season (20%) than his 3pt shooting then (31.7%). After that, it gets harder, since it is so early. CH hasn't made a 3 officially this season, and he shot on 28% on 3s last season. But he shot them very well against KU and, including that game in his official totals shows he's our 2nd best 3pt shooter, so far this season. In the same way, MD is shooting 3-14 or 21%, so far, on 3s this season, but he shot about 40% on 3s last season, 2nd only to Goode at 42%. It's very early, and there is a lot of noise in the numbers at this point. As you pointed out, it's sometimes better to stick with old season averages, but there is a big jump from HS to D1 and who you play in D1 changes everything too, so time will tell. Watch for who shoots at about 33% or better, since that simple relation is a good quick rule to see if it makes sense for a player/team to keep shooting them. So far this season (KU game included), we are at 32%, so just a little low, but better than last season, 30.8%.
The problem is that the two wings that are the best shooters are very slow to get their shots off from the perimeter (Domask and Goode). Both can hit a high % when left open, but any coach and team worth a nickel will press on them and close out hard and both seem to give the ball up when that happens. Neither is effective at getting to the 10-15 foot range and getting up a quick 2 either, which they can bury at a pretty high clip and with their height, should be. There is a downside to being "unselfish" when you can help your team by scoring. Domask loves the 10 ft fade but that doesn't happen often. Goode only seems to shoot when the defense is waiting for him to shoot. CoHawk and TSjr are taking more 10 footers this season but should double their numbers which will help the team as they can both hit 60% from 8-12 ft.
If AH and QG can hit shots when open, I have no problem with them shooting, but 25% from the arc is a no-no. I think they can both do 35% or better if they are open. Making opponents choose between covering a good stretch 4 shooter and opening up the middle to CoHawk and DD should be an early game test every night. Not sure AH will get enough time to be a consistent shooter, but he sure seems to be able to score from anywhere though we have not seen him shoot jumpers in the paint yet. Hope that is coming.
That game from 2 years ago in Milwaukie was a total nightmare. We were up by 12 but lost by 1. I guess Andre Curbelo was the most responsible (with many late TOs and an airball 3 from a guy who was shooting 12.5% on 3s at that time), but it was really a combined effort: Kofi's T-shirts and the NCAA's overreaction and so on. Trent Frazier did most things right to pull out a win in that game, but he turned his back way out front, just as Tyler Kolek came to help. Of course, tons of questionable/wrong calls, like Tyler appearing to kick the ball on that "steal". Finally, Curbelo finished it off with one more TO in the lane. Yeah, it's payback time for that nightmare.
Loyalillini10
- Urbana, IL
We attempted 16 threes in the Oakland game—that’s not too many.
Bigtex
- DFW
I don’t want and don’t think domask as our catch and shoot (3’s). I do want him with the ball in his hands distributing and scoring
But I said, "based on maximizing our scoring", and, in that sense, namely relative to our 2s, it was too many 3s, since:
4/16*3=25.0%*3=0.75 pts/shot on 3s
22/39*2=56.4%*2=1.13 pts/shot on 2s
So, subtracting these, we gave up an avg of 0.38 pts/shot on shooting each of those 3s (vs had we gone to the basket for a 2-pt shot of the same quality we normally got on 2s). That's my point.
Sure, 16 3s might be okay, but we need to make more than 4, when we are shooting over 56% on 2s, our we are making poor choices on offense. This is what we did in about 80% of our games last season, and I'd like Underwood (who knows about this issue) to rein it this season before it starts costing us games.
National college basketball special where FS1 is airing a bunch of these B1G-Big East matches back-to-back-to-back. Illinois-Marquette is the middle game, and they set it up to have 0 studio time which means 2 hour broadcasts. If Wisconsin @ Providence is a close game, FS1 will probably miss 5-8 minutes of the Illini game. Just hope it doesn't go to OT, lol.
For anybody that remembers/watches that 2021 nightmare, here's my 2021-to-2023 equivalence table for the Illini: (where I omitted Cockburn, since he couldn't play)
2021 -> 2023
Hawkins -> Hawkins
Goode -> Goode (Those 2 were easy!)
Frazier -> Shannon (Not size-wise but scoring-wise.)
Grandison -> Domask (or maybe Harmon)
Payne -> Dainja (Advantage Dainja.)
Plummer -> Guerrier (Sorry, this one is weak.)
Williams -> Rogers
Bosmans-Verdonk -> Hansberry
Curbelo -> Longhorn (See below.)
There is no equivalent to Andre Curbelo (maybe in general), but here you need to imagine that DGL has just OD'd on mushrooms and is playing the worst game of his life.
Based on that table, it seems like the 2023 Illini are way better than the 2021 Illini, but you have to remember that Marquette is better this season too. And Cockburn was fantastic, so we don't appear to be better than that full 2021 team, once Cockburn could play again. But we will see on Tuesday.
2021 -> 2023
Hawkins -> Hawkins
Goode -> Goode (Those 2 were easy!)
Frazier -> Shannon (Not size-wise but scoring-wise.)
Grandison -> Domask (or maybe Harmon)
Payne -> Dainja (Advantage Dainja.)
Plummer -> Guerrier (Sorry, this one is weak.)
Williams -> Rogers
Bosmans-Verdonk -> Hansberry
Curbelo -> Longhorn (See below.)
There is no equivalent to Andre Curbelo (maybe in general), but here you need to imagine that DGL has just OD'd on mushrooms and is playing the worst game of his life.
Based on that table, it seems like the 2023 Illini are way better than the 2021 Illini, but you have to remember that Marquette is better this season too. And Cockburn was fantastic, so we don't appear to be better than that full 2021 team, once Cockburn could play again. But we will see on Tuesday.
This analysis is numeric but lacks the proper context in my opinion. To me the goal is quality. If you get an open 3 take it if you can make it. This is important not because you make or miss it but because when you stop taking open perimeter shots the defense packs in tighter and tighter making your 2 point percentage go down as well. Because it reduces your ability to pass, drive and work the post. If you can’t hit open shots in college you are going to loose.
What a team can’t to is force contested 3s.
It would be interesting to see percent open vs contested 3s taken as a statistic and percentage of makes in those two conditions
This type of numbers game doesn't really work in practice. It's kind of like in football needing to run to open up the pass and vice versa. You have to keep shooting open threes if nothing else than to keep the D honest.
We didn't truly start putting the Oakland game away until we started making some threes.
I think it's more a matter of quality over quantity.
I hope we shoot 60 FT then so we can score 30 at the line!
GrayGhost77
- Centennial, CO
We had 4 guys on that 2021 team that were superior shooters: Plummer (A #1), Trent, Grandy, and even DMFW when needed. We also had a dominant interior presence in Kofi who was a First Team AA. We don't have anyone equivalent to those guys, though Goode remains to be seen (might be a great shooter but hasn't demonstrated that yet with a large enough sample size). We do have better versatility, bigger guards, and better all-around athleticism. Our overall D MIGHT be superior but DMFW and Trent were absolutely defensive stoppers. Kofi was a reliable double-digit per game rebounder but Ty, Guerrier, Dain, and Hansberry also seem to be excellent rebounders. Nobody on that '21 team could drive like Shannon, or even Rodgers. I'd give '21 a slight edge overall, but these teams are so different overall it's hard to compare. I did laugh about DGL OD'ing on shrooms, though.
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