Pregame: Illinois vs Marquette, Tuesday, November 14th, 7:00pm CT, FS1

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#76      
I have exhausted myself looking at every defensive, offensive. rebounding algorithm and BU doesn't make adjustments angle. My very thorough analysis says if we hit 45% of 2's 34% of 3's and 70% of FT's, we have an 80% chance of winning.
 
#79      
Our depth will be huge tonight. Expecting another good game by Quincy. Win two this week and we’ll be a top 10 team next week. Wild.

That being said, Marquette is really good.
 
#80      
My two bits is don't make TOO much out of the game either way. After watching the Illini, and CBB in general for 50 years (yeah, I'm that old - but not much grey hair, yet) my observation is the best Illini teams gel somewhere around January. Now more than ever in the transfer portal era it seems like every season is a tear-down and rebuild and the team and coaches spend a long time getting acquainted with each players strengths and weaknesses in game action as opposed to practice. Last year's team seemed to become more divided as the year progressed. In the Ayo era, they always seemed to get on a roll when the conference season started, but that was also a testament to Ayo's leadership, determination, and ability to hit the key shot when we really needed it. I know, I know, what about March Madness? A one and done tournament is truly the thrill of victory and the agony of defeat,,, I'll worry about that tomorrow, because tomorrow is another day.
 
#81      
He said non-con. I do believe that is the last game including conference that we won at home against a top 5 team
Should have been the severely underrated Arizona team in '21-'22.
Edit: whoops this was already discussed
 
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#82      
I think we match up well. My armchair analysis is stick Shannon on Kam Jones and keep on him like glue. Let the other guys beat you. Kolek is obviously a stud and at the top of the scouting report as well, but even if he's mostly healthy tonight he's more of a distributor than anything. Hawkins is the kind of player you want guarding a skilled big like Ighadoro. This could be a Dainja Zone game...they're thin in the front court. Get them in foul trouble and they could be in trouble.
 
#83      
Only I have exhausted myself looking at every defensive, offensive. rebounding algorithm and BU doesn't make adjustments angle. My very thorough analysis says if we hit 45% of 2's 34% of 3's and 70% of FT's, we have an 80% chance of winning.

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#84      
Unfortunately, I think this is fairly bad matchup for us. Quick experienced guards, good shooters, and a team that will be applying ample if not smothering ball pressure. In order to win this one, we're going to need Ty to have an A game and Goode and Domask to make the shots they get and play strong defense. TSJ and CoHawk going off like they did against Kansas also would be appreciated. This is going to be a tough one, but it definitely will let us know where this team is at and where our ceiling might be this year as Marquette is a team that can punish our weaknesses. In any case, should be a good one, and hoping we can pull it out.
 
#86      
Unfortunately, I think this is fairly bad matchup for us. Quick experienced guards, good shooters, and a team that will be applying ample if not smothering ball pressure. In order to win this one, we're going to need Ty to have an A game and Goode and Domask to make the shots they get and play strong defense. TSJ and CoHawk going off like they did against Kansas also would be appreciated. This is going to be a tough one, but it definitely will let us know where this team is at and where our ceiling might be this year as Marquette is a team that can punish our weaknesses. In any case, should be a good one, and hoping we can pull it out.
I kinda think we match up well. On paper, Shannon is an answer for Kam Jones and Hawkins is about as good a matchup we can ask for against Ighadoro. They don't have an answer for a physical big in the post like Dain. You make a good point that their speed and ball pressure could cause us fits. Ty indeed needs to bring his A game tonight. But If I'm a Marquette fan, I'm worried about our size & athleticism.
 
#87      

Loyalillini10

Urbana, IL
My two bits is don't make TOO much out of the game either way. After watching the Illini, and CBB in general for 50 years (yeah, I'm that old - but not much grey hair, yet) my observation is the best Illini teams gel somewhere around January. Now more than ever in the transfer portal era it seems like every season is a tear-down and rebuild and the team and coaches spend a long time getting acquainted with each players strengths and weaknesses in game action as opposed to practice. Last year's team seemed to become more divided as the year progressed. In the Ayo era, they always seemed to get on a roll when the conference season started, but that was also a testament to Ayo's leadership, determination, and ability to hit the key shot when we really needed it. I know, I know, what about March Madness? A one and done tournament is truly the thrill of victory and the agony of defeat,,, I'll worry about that tomorrow, because tomorrow is another day.
Pretty much. I saw that IU has 10 new players on its roster.
 
#88      
Watched some of the Marquette highlights vs NIU. I agree I think we match up just fine on paper. But at this point I think Marquette passes better than we do, which means they will probably get better looks on average. And I also think they shoot better than we do, so I imagine they will make more of them.

Basically, they look like a more cohesive group who brought back 8 of their top 9 (from a championship team), and I think we are still figuring some things out. If we continue to get better and find a groove defensively, it could be a different story come march. But right now I think they’re just a little bit ahead of us.

Side note, NIU looks pretty good. Don’t know where they are picked in the MAC but wouldn’t surprise me if they make a run in the MAC tourney and push for a tourney birth.
 
#90      
Unfortunately, I think this is fairly bad matchup for us. Quick experienced guards, good shooters, and a team that will be applying ample if not smothering ball pressure. In order to win this one, we're going to need Ty to have an A game and Goode and Domask to make the shots they get and play strong defense. TSJ and CoHawk going off like they did against Kansas also would be appreciated. This is going to be a tough one, but it definitely will let us know where this team is at and where our ceiling might be this year as Marquette is a team that can punish our weaknesses. In any case, should be a good one, and hoping we can pull it out.
I disagree. Illinois can go toe to toe with anyone in the country athletically and length wise. Marquette also doesn't run the same Havoc defense that Shake got famous with.

I'd let Shannon cover Kam Jones and send Rodgers at Kolek. Kolek isn't a great athlete and will be surrendering a ton of size and strength to Rodgers. Then Shannon is longer and a better athlete than Kam. Coleman will have to show up today against Ighodaro.

Simply put on the offensive side, the Illini obviously have to be better but Shannon is a matchup problem for Marquette.

I think Illinois can win this game, just need to run Marquette off the 3 point line and turn it into a brawl. Prediction: Shannon drops 30 and starts his all American campaign.
 
#91      
This is the game where we find out what TSJ is made of, defensively. Sure, he can make a guy like Golhke disappear. But, Kam Jones is as good a player as he will face in a 1v1 matchup all season. Go get 'em, TJ.
 
#92      
Tonight's game should be a good test. Win will look really good come seeding time. Lose and it shouldn't hurt too much, but will likely knock us out of the polls for a while. Dec 5 and 9 have a couple highly ranked games, so that will have a big impact as well.

Just hope they play well. Defense has been excellent for stretches, but the offense has had its issues.
 
#93      

RichardKeenesCousin

Richard Keene's Cousin
I have exhausted myself looking at every defensive, offensive. rebounding algorithm and BU doesn't make adjustments angle. My very thorough analysis says if we hit 45% of 2's 34% of 3's and 70% of FT's, we have an 80% chance of winning.
I agree with 85% of this
 
#94      
Watched some of the Marquette highlights vs NIU. I agree I think we match up just fine on paper. But at this point I think Marquette passes better than we do, which means they will probably get better looks on average. And I also think they shoot better than we do, so I imagine they will make more of them.

Basically, they look like a more cohesive group who brought back 8 of their top 9 (from a championship team), and I think we are still figuring some things out. If we continue to get better and find a groove defensively, it could be a different story come march. But right now I think they’re just a little bit ahead of us.

Side note, NIU looks pretty good. Don’t know where they are picked in the MAC but wouldn’t surprise me if they make a run in the MAC tourney and push for a tourney birth.
So, what you're saying is:

They shoot better than us
They pass better than us
They're more cohesive
They're going to get better shot selections
They're going to make more shots than us

But that matchup looks good on paper? Got it.

Based on your assessment (which may or may not be true).... we're about to get curb stomped.
 
#95      

RichardKeenesCousin

Richard Keene's Cousin
I did a deep dive into the statistical analysis of the Illini and compared it to Marquette. I evaluated Rebounds, Assists, Block, Steals, Turnovers, 3 Pointers Made, Free Throws Made, 2 Point FG %, 3 Point FG %, Fast Break Points, 3 Point Frequency, Assist/Turnover Ratio, Bench Points, Defensive Efficiency, Efficiency Margin, Points Per Possession, Points off Turnovers, Rebound Margin, Rebound Percentage, and Second Chance Points. I found out that if the Illini score more points than Marquette, we will win.
 
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#96      

MDchicago

Lake Norman NC
I think ball security and who controls the tempo will be key factors.

Recall that the Illini had 26(!) turnovers in the 2021 game against Marquette (without Kofi), including 5 by Coleman and 7 by Curbelo, with none costlier than the last one. Link

Will be important that Ty, DGL and the rest of the PG committee take care of the ball and don't get sped up by Marquette and try to do too much to give the seniors (plus Dain and Luke) a chance to deliver for us. Play our game, not theirs.

Will also be a good opportunity to assess whether our defense is as good as we think it is....
 
#99      
I did a deep dive into the statistical analysis of the Illini and compared it to Marquette. I evaluated Rebounds, Assists, Block, Steals, Turnovers, 3 Pointers Made, Free Throws Made, 2 Point FG %, 3 Point FG %, Fast Break Points, 3 Point Frequency, Assist/Turnover Ratio, Bench Points, Defensive Efficiency, Efficiency Margin, Points Per Possession, Points off Turnovers, Rebound Margin, Rebound Percentage, and Second Chance Points. I found out that if the Illini score more points than Marquette, we will win.
You keep talking like this and you might just become the next commentator replacement for Bill Walton.

"I think the key for them to win this game is to get more points from putting the ball in the bucket than their opponent."
 
#100      
My two bits is don't make TOO much out of the game either way. After watching the Illini, and CBB in general for 50 years (yeah, I'm that old - but not much grey hair, yet) my observation is the best Illini teams gel somewhere around January. Now more than ever in the transfer portal era it seems like every season is a tear-down and rebuild and the team and coaches spend a long time getting acquainted with each players strengths and weaknesses in game action as opposed to practice. Last year's team seemed to become more divided as the year progressed. In the Ayo era, they always seemed to get on a roll when the conference season started, but that was also a testament to Ayo's leadership, determination, and ability to hit the key shot when we really needed it. I know, I know, what about March Madness? A one and done tournament is truly the thrill of victory and the agony of defeat,,, I'll worry about that tomorrow, because tomorrow is another day.
Great Post..."Last year's team seemed to become more divided as the year progressed."

"A leader is best when people barely know he exists. When his work is done, his aim fulfilled, they will say: we did it ourselves."
-Lao Tzu
 
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