Seems to be clearly two lists.
Frazier, Chun, Heeke, and Mehrtens are a demographically diverse and inclusive group of outsiders from other schools which are clearly the progeny of the administration, the search committee, and the search firm.
Tiley, Whitman and Michael are the Rick George fallbacks that have been chosen by the donors who orchestrated Thomas' demise.
Seems to me that any of the top list would face a basically impossible task, coming as an outsider trying to win back the support of the Guentherites who shunned Mike Thomas. And of course all three of the others have deep Guenther ties with all the worries that brings.
I'd be shocked if the choice was one of the first four as opposed to the latter three, but I have been shocked at least three times in the last few months.
Mehrtens in particular is a fun name to have on the list, I can't imagine a better person to represent the sum of all fears for the way this process has gone and people's perceptions of the agenda of the administration.