It’s an existential crisis of the highest order.
Bracketology
- Status
Two sides to this coin. We absolutely could crumble early, but at the same time, ain't nobody gonna wanna see Mayer and Shannon in this tournament. We’ll be a trendy lower seed to make noise.
DeonThomas
- South Carolina
Plus, the NIT plays its games on the courts of the invited teams, so we may get another home game or two!
OnlyOrange
- Belleville, IL
Not to be a debbie downer, but didn't we peak in November? We've basically only beaten the bottom of the B1G (other than NW), and have no other Q1 wins...I dont' see anyone being scared.
Retro62
- North Bethesda, Maryland
Regardless of where we end up, I am looking forward to our young guys getting tourney experience. This team may catch fire and win a couple, or fizzle, we all know that, but to have guys on a team that are maturing and have tourney experience is something to build on. I would love to see what a Junior class of Epps, Harris, Rogers and Dain (basically), can bring. If we add a few seniors to that in Goode and RJ (hopefully), we may make some noise.
If you're an opposing team, do you want to face a guy like Mayer in March? He has a lot of tournament experience and is the type of dude who could nuclear from 3.
hooraybeer
- Pittsburgh, PA
my first child is cooperating and my wife will be induced on march 16, first day of the NCAAT. looking forward to having the day free for the first time in the BU era
OnlyOrange
- Belleville, IL
Honestly? If I'm a coach, this is exactly the type of team I want to face. The game plan is so clear - keep them out of the paint, we'll just launch too many 3s. Sure, Mayer may make a portion of his (I'll even say TSJ can get hot too), but for us to bank on that happening in a high pressure tournament game is insane.
Just my opinion - and trust me, I hope I'm very wrong here!
I don't think anyone is banking on that happening. It's all craziness in March. But nobody should be surprised if Indiana/Minnesota Mayer or UCLA/Northwestern Shannon show up and go nuts and carry us. Those are two 5th year seniors with a lot of tournament experience who can explode for 20+. If I'm an opposing fan I'd be crapping my pants if we're facing Mayer with a freshly shaved mullet come tournament time.
There are no more free days after your child is born.
OnlyOrange
- Belleville, IL
Totally understand your point, and it's a fair one. I guess when it's tournament time, it's all about the odds/matchups to me. The likelihood of that happening is slim.
But you're right, it's certainly possible. Hopefully I eat crow come March...
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
I’d literally rather be a 10 I think, haha.
Goillinikobd
- Southeastern US
That lock is based on what metric? I am seriously worried.
I agree with this. You can't just lose 4 in a row to end the season and feel confident. Some of our losses have been horrific, not in terms of Q3 or Q4 losses, but because we've been beaten soundly (to be diplomatic).
All that said, if we lose 4 in a row to end the season, they don't deserve to be there and I wouldn't feel bad about it. We're hanging on based on two wins in November and we've had multiple opportunities to not be having this scenario as even a remote possibility, but we blew them. Yesterday was one of those opportunities.
We'll see what Thursday brings us.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
So, is this somewhat close to a "simplified" consensus this?
(1) Win out and win 2 in the BTT - #6 seed
(2) Win out and win 1 in the BTT - #6/7 seed
(3) Win out and win 1 in the BTT - #7 seed
(4) W vs. MICH, L at PUR, win 2 in the BTT - #7 seed
(5) W vs. MICH, L at PUR, win 1 in the BTT - #7/8 seed
(6) W vs. MICH, L at PUR, lose 1 in the BTT - #8/9 seed
(9) L vs. MICH, L at PUR, win 1 in the BTT - #9 seed
(10) L vs. MICH, L at PUR, lose 1 in the BTT - #10+ seed
I know, I know ... lotta ball to be played, it depends on who we beat/lose to in the BTT, depends on what other teams do, etc. However, it seems the OSU loss capped our ceiling at a #6 seed even if we beat Purdue, unless we make a run to the BTT Championship Game. On the other end, I really can't see us dropping past a #10 or #11 seed in the worst case scenario ... in other words, even in our full meltdown, lose-out scenario, we likely sneak JUST in front of the true Bubble teams who are getting the last #11 seeds and the #12 seeds.
(1) Win out and win 2 in the BTT - #6 seed
(2) Win out and win 1 in the BTT - #6/7 seed
(3) Win out and win 1 in the BTT - #7 seed
(4) W vs. MICH, L at PUR, win 2 in the BTT - #7 seed
(5) W vs. MICH, L at PUR, win 1 in the BTT - #7/8 seed
(6) W vs. MICH, L at PUR, lose 1 in the BTT - #8/9 seed
(9) L vs. MICH, L at PUR, win 1 in the BTT - #9 seed
(10) L vs. MICH, L at PUR, lose 1 in the BTT - #10+ seed
I know, I know ... lotta ball to be played, it depends on who we beat/lose to in the BTT, depends on what other teams do, etc. However, it seems the OSU loss capped our ceiling at a #6 seed even if we beat Purdue, unless we make a run to the BTT Championship Game. On the other end, I really can't see us dropping past a #10 or #11 seed in the worst case scenario ... in other words, even in our full meltdown, lose-out scenario, we likely sneak JUST in front of the true Bubble teams who are getting the last #11 seeds and the #12 seeds.
danielb927
Orange Krush Class of 2013
- Rochester, MN
I think the bolded is the key point. Your definition of horrific is not what the selection committee is using. Our 9 Q1 losses certainly aren't great, but they also don't hurt a ton in the eyes of the committee.
Homecoming 2019
- Chicago
10 seed or 11 & 12 without a play-in, is a better scenario than 8 or 9, our (mostly my) goal to the season was always to make it to the second weekend. Losing in round 1 vs round of 32 makes no difference to me at this point.
danielb927
Orange Krush Class of 2013
- Rochester, MN
Feels about right to me, but I'm also trying to remember there are always surprises from the selection committee.
If we won out, only got a single-bye in the BTT, and then won on Thursday & Friday of the BTT, I could still imagine a 5 seed. We'd have 4 Q1 wins at that point, 3 being our 3 toughest games, and still just a single Q2 loss or worse.
On the flip side, while I do think we're in regardless, if we finish 0-3 I wouldn't be shocked at being in the First Four if the committee feels we peaked early.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
This is just my personal view, of course, but it's so weird to me how OPPOSITE last year's team felt.
I remember thinking last year that we needed a #3 seed or higher (which I felt we deserved...) to make a real run. I was relatively confident of what type of team was going to show up each game from an effort/intensity/defense standpoint (though Chattanooga was a scare...), and I thought our floor was low while our ceiling wasn't that high. In other words, if we had a #4 seed, we're likely out in the Second Round if we weren't at our best and we're out in the Sweet Sixteen if we play well.
Conversely, the headline of the article Dan has on the home page really says it all with this year's team ... we could make the Final Four or lose in the First Round by double digits.
- If we play like we did at Northwestern or at Ohio State, what team are we exactly going to beat?! I honestly would say zero of the other teams in the field.
- On the other hand, if we play like we did in the second half of the Northwestern game or at home against Michigan State for consecutive games, that could EASILY get us into the Sweet Sixteen and in the game of the final minute for a trip to the Elite Eight.
- If we somehow got consistently hot and strung together performances at the level of our UCLA and Texas wins ... I mean, it's not hyperbole AT ALL to say that level of play over 6 games gives you a realistic chance of cutting down the nets. After all ... that will be the goal entering March Madness for BOTH of those teams we beat on a neutral floor.
The depressing problem is that, from a basic statistics standpoint, that's nearly impossible with what we have seen right now. There seems to be a roughly 30-40% chance we just don't show up at all, and when you string those consecutively ... advancing in a single-elimination tournament is REALLY hard.
I remember thinking last year that we needed a #3 seed or higher (which I felt we deserved...) to make a real run. I was relatively confident of what type of team was going to show up each game from an effort/intensity/defense standpoint (though Chattanooga was a scare...), and I thought our floor was low while our ceiling wasn't that high. In other words, if we had a #4 seed, we're likely out in the Second Round if we weren't at our best and we're out in the Sweet Sixteen if we play well.
Conversely, the headline of the article Dan has on the home page really says it all with this year's team ... we could make the Final Four or lose in the First Round by double digits.
- If we play like we did at Northwestern or at Ohio State, what team are we exactly going to beat?! I honestly would say zero of the other teams in the field.
- On the other hand, if we play like we did in the second half of the Northwestern game or at home against Michigan State for consecutive games, that could EASILY get us into the Sweet Sixteen and in the game of the final minute for a trip to the Elite Eight.
- If we somehow got consistently hot and strung together performances at the level of our UCLA and Texas wins ... I mean, it's not hyperbole AT ALL to say that level of play over 6 games gives you a realistic chance of cutting down the nets. After all ... that will be the goal entering March Madness for BOTH of those teams we beat on a neutral floor.
The depressing problem is that, from a basic statistics standpoint, that's nearly impossible with what we have seen right now. There seems to be a roughly 30-40% chance we just don't show up at all, and when you string those consecutively ... advancing in a single-elimination tournament is REALLY hard.
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Ohio St.'s win against us boosted them from 71 to 63 in net. Lets hope they can remain a quad 1 loss. Only quad 2 loss we have is Penn St at home. Rutgers and Michigan St. are 32 and 33. We should be rooting for them. Wisconsin barely holding on at 72 for a quad 1 road win as well.
I’d rather be a 7..you play a 2 anyway if you win and a 7 means we finished the season strong.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
What you touch on in your last sentence is why I've always kind of had a problem with the "the tournament is just luck" narrative that's been floated. Yes, anything can happen in one single game. But stringing together 6 consecutive good games against other good teams is not luck. It's really difficult to do and requires a skilled, consistent team. That's why it's the ultimate goal.
Here is how I'm thinking about it to try to get my spirits up a little bit...assuming we're an 8/9.
Round 1: Beat a team that we're probably better than.
Round 2: Beat one team who is probably better than us.
S16: Beat one team who is probably as good as us.
E8: Play your hearts out and see what happens.
In bite sized chunks, and if you squint real hard, you can start to see a path.
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