Bracketology

21ChampaignSt said:

What you touch on in your last sentence is why I've always kind of had a problem with the "the tournament is just luck" narrative that's been floated. Yes, anything can happen in one single game. But stringing together 6 consecutive good games against other good teams is not luck. It's really difficult to do and requires a skilled, consistent team. That's why it's the ultimate goal.

Here is how I'm thinking about it to try to get my spirits up a little bit...assuming we're an 8/9.

Round 1: Beat a team that we're probably better than.
Round 2: Beat one team who is probably better than us.
S16: Beat one team who is probably as good as us.
E8: Play your hearts out and see what happens.

In bite sized chunks, and if you squint real hard, you can start to see a path.

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Agreed that it's not just luck... but disagree that it's "not luck". There's definitely luck involved.

Being a better team just means your variations happen against a higher baseline - which means those variations become less important to winning. But no team has ever been good enough to take luck totally out of the equation - as our 37-2 Illini in 04-05 show.

I love round-by-round breakdown. Would love to be in that "play your heart out and see what happens" situation 2 weeks from Saturday!

21ChampaignSt said:

What you touch on in your last sentence is why I've always kind of had a problem with the "the tournament is just luck" narrative that's been floated. Yes, anything can happen in one single game. But stringing together 6 consecutive good games against other good teams is not luck. It's really difficult to do and requires a skilled, consistent team. That's why it's the ultimate goal.

Here is how I'm thinking about it to try to get my spirits up a little bit...assuming we're an 8/9.

Round 1: Beat a team that we're probably better than.
Round 2: Beat one team who is probably better than us.
S16: Beat one team who is probably as good as us.
E8: Play your hearts out and see what happens.

In bite sized chunks, and if you squint real hard, you can start to see a path.

Click to expand...

Yep, REALLY contextualizes past Illini runs like 2005 for me. Even that group had an off night vs. Arizona and needed a miracle to come back. If they shoot threes at their season average in that last game, we are National Champs. When people say the Tournament is "luck," I can only agree when it comes to one game. However, as you said, the teams that end up in the Elite Eight and beyond have that "it" factor 90% of the time.

I will say, though, that I think our 2021 team had some bad luck, and that just happens from time to time. We caught Loyola on the wrong day, and who knows? In another universe we might have had an exceptionally lucky shooting day and survived by the skin of our teeth only to go on and cut down the nets that year, because the way we were playing in the BTT and just before really was special. Ugh.

EDIT: Totally agree with your round by round breakdown! That is why it's essential we nab at least two more wins and try to play against a team that IS worse than us in the First Round...

At this point, forget the double bye. Yes, the double bye would be nice, but with how streaky this team is, I'd rather catch hot against a lesser opponent on day 2. Then have that momentum carry over to the rest of the tournament. IDEALLY we either lose day 2 of the tournament, or run the BTT into the finals (and possibly win). If either of those things happen I strongly believe we end up with a 7/10 seed. That's where we want to be. Ideally we make it to a 6, but I think that's out of the picture at this point (MAYBE if we win out and win the BTT, this could happen). Worst case scenario is we end up with an 8/9, the top half of brackets have done us NO favors in previous years, and in general thats just historically true. Look at many of the recent "Cinderella" runs, most come from bottom halves of brackets. Additionally, we've already beaten 2 of the "popular picked" 2 seeds in UCLA and Texas. I feel a lot more comfortable as a 6/11 or 7/10, than I do as an 8/9 in the big dance.

Illiniguy13 said:

I don't think anyone is banking on that happening. It's all craziness in March. But nobody should be surprised if Indiana/Minnesota Mayer or UCLA/Northwestern Shannon show up and go nuts and carry us. Those are two 5th year seniors with a lot of tournament experience who can explode for 20+. If I'm an opposing fan I'd be crapping my pants if we're facing Mayer with a freshly shaved mullet come tournament time.

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Picking nits, but Shannon is not a 5th year senior

Officially dropped down to a 7 in bracket matrix. Lunardi has us as a 9 in this mornings update.

I'd say we are comfortably an 8 right now. Win against Michigan and we are probably back at a 7. Win against Purdue too and we are a solid 7.

Floor looks like a 10 as of now if we lose out.

Team hasn't been able to put a winning streak together. 4 wins in early January is as good as it gets. Consistent play hasn't been part of this teams makeup.

The Athletic has moved Illinois into the “lock” category in their bubble watch article. ESPN has yet to do so but this team is a lock no matter what. Ceiling is a 6 if they win out and floor is a 10 if they lose out, in my opinion.

BBlock24 said:

The Athletic has moved Illinois into the “lock” category in their bubble watch article. ESPN has yet to do so but this team is a lock no matter what. Ceiling is a 6 if they win out and floor is a 10 if they lose out, in my opinion.

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Correct

BBlock24 said:

The Athletic has moved Illinois into the “lock” category in their bubble watch article. ESPN has yet to do so but this team is a lock no matter what. Ceiling is a 6 if they win out and floor is a 10 if they lose out, in my opinion.

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Please let Wisconsin beat Purdue so we can be the perfect spoiler in our big ten regular season finale game at Purdue. Purdue does enjoy losing big time games with a lot on the line

Think if we win out and/or make a run to the BTT final we can move up to a 7 or even a 6. Definitely doable as we tend to show up for big games and Purdue has looked a little rickety the last month of the season and I think we can bother their frosh guards.

Stinks that we dropped OSU but 4th game in 8 days and that’s the sort of game we haven’t gotten up for all year. Frustrating but the team is what it is at this point. Good news is perhaps with the exception of our first BTT game there aren’t any other games where I think we will overlook our opponent. We will see.

Frustrated is not the word. Shannon may be hot or it Mayer or it could be a game that they get Dain involved. I was very confident in the team the past two years. This team is truly scary. I would be terrified to play against them because you dont know what team you are going to get. This is a team that will be out the first weekend or go to the elite 8. I dont think there will be any other outcome.

RockfordIllini said:

Think if we win out and/or make a run to the BTT final we can move up to a 7 or even a 6. Definitely doable as we tend to show up for big games and Purdue has looked a little rickety the last month of the season and I think we can bother their frosh guards.

Stinks that we dropped OSU but 4th game in 8 days and that’s the sort of game we haven’t gotten up for all year. Frustrating but the team is what it is at this point. Good news is perhaps with the exception of our first BTT game there aren’t any other games where I think we will overlook our opponent. We will see.

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If we win out, we would have a minimum of two more Quad 1 wins and possibly three. I think we would definitely be a #6 at that point.

Fighter of the Nightman said:

If we win out, we would have a minimum of two more Quad 1 wins and possibly three. I think we would definitely be a #6 at that point.

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It’s literally such a mess with seeding right now. If we go 2-0 this week and IU goes 1-1(they play Iowa and Mich at home), we would only have 1 less Q1 win and exact same Q2 record and they’re currently a 4 seed in most brackets. It just comes to show what one little winning streak can do for a resume. That OSU loss felt much worse than it actually was if they can stay top 75.

Iloveorangekoolaid said:

It’s literally such a mess with seeding right now. If we go 2-0 this week and IU goes 1-1(they play Iowa and Mich at home), we would only have 1 less Q1 win and exact same Q2 record and they’re currently a 4 seed in most brackets. It just comes to show what one little winning streak can do for a resume. That OSU loss felt much worse than it actually was if they can stay top 75.

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Very true. Computers have loved them all year, despite their awful record/results. I think at one point when they were under .500, they still had a NET of 33 or something similar.

robjilla said:

Frustrated is not the word. Shannon may be hot or it Mayer or it could be a game that they get Dain involved. I was very confident in the team the past two years. This team is truly scary. I would be terrified to play against them because you dont know what team you are going to get. This is a team that will be out the first weekend or go to the elite 8. I dont think there will be any other outcome.

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So you're saying if we win the first two games, you think we are certain to win the next game?

If they lose to Michigan and Purdue they may be on the bubble

Hope4better said:

If they lose to Michigan and Purdue they may be on the bubble

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A couple of positive notes about our resume ... looking on the bright side here!

- Wisconsin is back inside the top 75 of the NET, giving us an extra Quad 1 and Quad 2 win. They finish with Purdue at home and Minnesota on the road, and it would just be LOVELY if they could stay at #75 or better!
- After a win at PSU, Rutgers is up to #31. If they can get to #30, we will have another Quad 1 win and their remaining schedule (Northwestern at home and Minnesota on the road) makes that entirely possible.
- As gut-punching as it was, Ohio State is #63 in the NET ... so it was a Quad 1 loss. They finish with Maryland at home and MSU on the road, and it would be huge for us if they could split, preferably beating Maryland instead of MSU because...
- Michigan State is back to #32 in the NET rankings. As with Rutgers, if they can get into the top 30, we will have another Quad 1 win. They finish at Nebraska (scary right now!) and vs. Ohio State. Let's hope they can climb into the top 30.

If those rankings fall our way by Selection Sunday (does anyone really know how the NET works?! Lol...), it could actually make a huge difference. Here's our resume right now:

Record: 19-10
NET Ranking: #33
SOS Ranking: #29
Road Record: 3-6
Neutral Record: 2-2
vs. Quad 1: 3-9
vs. Quad 2: 6-1
vs. Quad 3: 3-0
vs. Quad 4: 7-0

If we beat Michigan and lose at Purdue, it would look like this with no rankings changing:

Record: 20-11
NET Ranking: #33 (or thereabouts)
SOS Ranking: #25 or so?
Road Record: 3-7
Neutral Record: 2-2
vs. Quad 1: 3-10
vs. Quad 2: 7-1
vs. Quad 3: 3-0
vs. Quad 4: 7-0

If MSU and Rutgers can get into the top 30 (they're SO close!), all of a sudden it looks like this:

Record: 20-11
NET Ranking: #25-30 (or thereabouts)
SOS Ranking: #25 or so?
Road Record: 3-7
Neutral Record: 2-2
vs. Quad 1: 5-10
vs. Quad 2: 5-1
vs. Quad 3: 3-0
vs. Quad 4: 7-0

You throw an upset of Purdue in there plus those rankings?? 21-10 with a top 30 NET ranking, 6 Quad 1 wins, 5 Quad 2 wins and ZERO Quad 3/Quad 4 losses all of a sudden starts to look damn good compared to the rest of the field this year...

Point being - as crushing as the OSU loss felt on an emotional level, it didn't HURT our resume by itself so much as we missed a really huge opportunity for another Quad 1 win. While we're probably sitting on that #8 seed line now, there is a LOT to play for. I pray the guys truly get that, and it fires them up.

This is still absolutely the type of team that has the pieces to make a run, and in March Madness sometimes the difference between playing your best in the Second Round but going home vs. going to the Sweet Sixteen is being a #8 seed rather than a #7 seed.

Keep fighting, boys! Beat Michigan!

Regardless, I will pick them to lose game one against whom ever in my pool…….a win-win as far as I am concerned.

john1952 said:

​ Illinois Basketball​ Predictions Update Feb 27, 2023

​ • After losing to Ohio State 72-60 yesterday, Illinois is now projected to finish the regular season 20-11 (11-9 Big Ten). • The odds that the Fighting Illini make the NCAA tournament are down to 50%, a decrease of 15% since yesterday. • We currently rank Illinois as the #25 team in the country, and the #5 team in the Big Ten. • Next game: Thu, Mar 2 vs. #41 Michigan. Our power ratings give the Fighting Illini a 68% chance to win.

Illinois is right on the bubble. If they fail to get an NCAA tournament automatic bid (by winning the Big Ten tournament) they'll have about a 50/50 shot of getting an at-large bid.
•If the Fighting Illini can get to 22 total wins (including conference tournament wins), their odds to make the NCAA tournament increase to 79%. As for an automatic bid ... Illinois has a 7% chance to win the conference tournament. They probably won't win, but there's an outside chance.
•	I

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I respect this site, but it is whack, haha. If we have 22 wins, we have a 110% chance of making the NCAA Tournament.

Illiniguy13 said:

I don't think anyone is banking on that happening. It's all craziness in March. But nobody should be surprised if Indiana/Minnesota Mayer or UCLA/Northwestern Shannon show up and go nuts and carry us. Those are two 5th year seniors with a lot of tournament experience who can explode for 20+. If I'm an opposing fan I'd be crapping my pants if we're facing Mayer with a freshly shaved mullet come tournament time.

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While this team is much less consistent than our teams over the last few years, they definitely have more of the “It” factor. Cinderellas in the tournament tend to be talented teams who hit some bumps in the regular season, but are finally putting it together. It’s not crazy to say we could be that team when the big lights come on. Imagine us (finally) getting hot from 3 with as many as we take each game lol.

Key for our guys is to play loose with energy, and just have fun.

john1952 said:

​ Illinois Basketball​ Predictions Update Feb 27, 2023

​ • After losing to Ohio State 72-60 yesterday, Illinois is now projected to finish the regular season 20-11 (11-9 Big Ten). • The odds that the Fighting Illini make the NCAA tournament are down to 50%, a decrease of 15% since yesterday. • We currently rank Illinois as the #25 team in the country, and the #5 team in the Big Ten. • Next game: Thu, Mar 2 vs. #41 Michigan. Our power ratings give the Fighting Illini a 68% chance to win.

Illinois is right on the bubble. If they fail to get an NCAA tournament automatic bid (by winning the Big Ten tournament) they'll have about a 50/50 shot of getting an at-large bid.
•If the Fighting Illini can get to 22 total wins (including conference tournament wins), their odds to make the NCAA tournament increase to 79%. As for an automatic bid ... Illinois has a 7% chance to win the conference tournament. They probably won't win, but there's an outside chance.
•	I

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Where is this from, because I don't ever want to use their data. Rating a team 25th in the country, 5th in the B1G, getting 20 wins, and then putting them on the bubble shows a significant lack of logic. A major conference team that is 25th in the country is a stone cold lock.

john1952 said:

​ Illinois Basketball​ Predictions Update Feb 27, 2023

​ • After losing to Ohio State 72-60 yesterday, Illinois is now projected to finish the regular season 20-11 (11-9 Big Ten). • The odds that the Fighting Illini make the NCAA tournament are down to 50%, a decrease of 15% since yesterday. • We currently rank Illinois as the #25 team in the country, and the #5 team in the Big Ten. • Next game: Thu, Mar 2 vs. #41 Michigan. Our power ratings give the Fighting Illini a 68% chance to win.

Illinois is right on the bubble. If they fail to get an NCAA tournament automatic bid (by winning the Big Ten tournament) they'll have about a 50/50 shot of getting an at-large bid.
•If the Fighting Illini can get to 22 total wins (including conference tournament wins), their odds to make the NCAA tournament increase to 79%. As for an automatic bid ... Illinois has a 7% chance to win the conference tournament. They probably won't win, but there's an outside chance.
•	I

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I don't know who said this, but I will take those 50/50 odds for $100.

john1952 said:

​ Illinois Basketball​ Predictions Update Feb 27, 2023

​ • After losing to Ohio State 72-60 yesterday, Illinois is now projected to finish the regular season 20-11 (11-9 Big Ten). • The odds that the Fighting Illini make the NCAA tournament are down to 50%, a decrease of 15% since yesterday. • We currently rank Illinois as the #25 team in the country, and the #5 team in the Big Ten. • Next game: Thu, Mar 2 vs. #41 Michigan. Our power ratings give the Fighting Illini a 68% chance to win.

Illinois is right on the bubble. If they fail to get an NCAA tournament automatic bid (by winning the Big Ten tournament) they'll have about a 50/50 shot of getting an at-large bid.
•If the Fighting Illini can get to 22 total wins (including conference tournament wins), their odds to make the NCAA tournament increase to 79%. As for an automatic bid ... Illinois has a 7% chance to win the conference tournament. They probably won't win, but there's an outside chance.
•	I

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Is this from a bot?

Looks bot-ish.