It’s an existential crisis of the highest order.Well it'd be hard to make the tourney if we don't exist
It’s an existential crisis of the highest order.Well it'd be hard to make the tourney if we don't exist
Two sides to this coin. We absolutely could crumble early, but at the same time, ain't nobody gonna wanna see Mayer and Shannon in this tournament. We’ll be a trendy lower seed to make noise.I'll just say this, after the last two tourneys and this years schizophrenic squad.....no matter what seed we get.... we will be the darling picks to be upset.
Plus, the NIT plays its games on the courts of the invited teams, so we may get another home game or two!Two sides to this coin. We absolutely could crumble early, but at the same time, ain't nobody gonna wanna see Mayer and Shannon in this tournament. We’ll be a trendy lower seed to make noise.
Not to be a debbie downer, but didn't we peak in November? We've basically only beaten the bottom of the B1G (other than NW), and have no other Q1 wins...I dont' see anyone being scared.Two sides to this coin. We absolutely could crumble early, but at the same time, ain't nobody gonna wanna see Mayer and Shannon in this tournament. We’ll be a trendy lower seed to make noise.
If you're an opposing team, do you want to face a guy like Mayer in March? He has a lot of tournament experience and is the type of dude who could nuclear from 3.Not to be a debbie downer, but didn't we peak in November? We've basically only beaten the bottom of the B1G (other than NW), and have no other Q1 wins...I dont' see anyone being scared.
Honestly? If I'm a coach, this is exactly the type of team I want to face. The game plan is so clear - keep them out of the paint, we'll just launch too many 3s. Sure, Mayer may make a portion of his (I'll even say TSJ can get hot too), but for us to bank on that happening in a high pressure tournament game is insane.If you're an opposing team, do you want to face a guy like Mayer in March? He has a lot of tournament experience and is the type of dude who could nuclear from 3.
I don't think anyone is banking on that happening. It's all craziness in March. But nobody should be surprised if Indiana/Minnesota Mayer or UCLA/Northwestern Shannon show up and go nuts and carry us. Those are two 5th year seniors with a lot of tournament experience who can explode for 20+. If I'm an opposing fan I'd be crapping my pants if we're facing Mayer with a freshly shaved mullet come tournament time.Honestly? If I'm a coach, this is exactly the type of team I want to face. The game plan is so clear - keep them out of the paint, we'll just launch too many 3s. Sure, Mayer may make a portion of his (I'll even say TSJ can get hot too), but for us to bank on that happening in a high pressure tournament game is insane.
Just my opinion - and trust me, I hope I'm very wrong here!
There are no more free days after your child is born.my first child is cooperating and my wife will be induced on march 16, first day of the NCAAT. looking forward to having the day free for the first time in the BU era
Totally understand your point, and it's a fair one. I guess when it's tournament time, it's all about the odds/matchups to me. The likelihood of that happening is slim.I don't think anyone is banking on that happening. It's all craziness in March. But nobody should be surprised if Indiana/Minnesota Mayer or UCLA/Northwestern Shannon show up and go nuts and carry us. Those are two 5th year seniors with a lot of tournament experience who can explode for 20+. If I'm an opposing fan I'd be crapping my pants if we're facing Mayer with a freshly shaved mullet come tournament time.
Remember it wasn’t that long ago that we hadn’t made a tournament in forever. I’m thankful this team is solidly in the tournament year in and year out. Obviously want more, and the season had been frustrating, but in the big picture still a good team compared to the grove years.
I’d literally rather be a 10 I think, haha.I agree. Firmly on the 8/9 as of now. Can move up to a 7 winning their next two against Michigan and Purdue. If they lose their next three, they’ll at worst be a 10.
That lock is based on what metric? I am seriously worried.10 wins in conference plus UCLA and Texas wins locks them in. We are playing for seeding.
I agree with this. You can't just lose 4 in a row to end the season and feel confident. Some of our losses have been horrific, not in terms of Q3 or Q4 losses, but because we've been beaten soundly (to be diplomatic).I don't think there's any guarantee we're in if we lose out. At that point, it completely depends on the performance of other bubble teams and the whims of the committee. Torvik's predictor has us as the third team out if we lose out.
I agree with this. You can't just lose 4 in a row to end the season and feel confident. Some of our losses have been horrific, not in terms of Q3 or Q4 losses, but because we've been beaten soundly (to be diplomatic).
All that said, if we lose 4 in a row to end the season, they don't deserve to be there and I wouldn't feel bad about it. We're hanging on based on two wins in November and we've had multiple opportunities to not be having this scenario as even a remote possibility, but we blew them. Yesterday was one of those opportunities.
We'll see what Thursday brings us.
10 seed or 11 & 12 without a play-in, is a better scenario than 8 or 9, our (mostly my) goal to the season was always to make it to the second weekend. Losing in round 1 vs round of 32 makes no difference to me at this point.So, is this somewhat close to a "simplified" consensus this?
(1) Win out and win 2 in the BTT - #6 seed
(2) Win out and win 1 in the BTT - #6/7 seed
(3) Win out and win 1 in the BTT - #7 seed
(4) W vs. MICH, L at PUR, win 2 in the BTT - #7 seed
(5) W vs. MICH, L at PUR, win 1 in the BTT - #7/8 seed
(6) W vs. MICH, L at PUR, lose 1 in the BTT - #8/9 seed
(9) L vs. MICH, L at PUR, win 1 in the BTT - #9 seed
(10) L vs. MICH, L at PUR, lose 1 in the BTT - #10+ seed
I know, I know ... lotta ball to be played, it depends on who we beat/lose to in the BTT, depends on what other teams do, etc. However, it seems the OSU loss capped our ceiling at a #6 seed even if we beat Purdue, unless we make a run to the BTT Championship Game. On the other end, I really can't see us dropping past a #10 or #11 seed in the worst case scenario ... in other words, even in our full meltdown, lose-out scenario, we likely sneak JUST in front of the true Bubble teams who are getting the last #11 seeds and the #12 seeds.
So, is this somewhat close to a "simplified" consensus this?
(1) Win out and win 2 in the BTT - #6 seed
(2) Win out and win 1 in the BTT - #6/7 seed
(3) Win out and win 1 in the BTT - #7 seed
(4) W vs. MICH, L at PUR, win 2 in the BTT - #7 seed
(5) W vs. MICH, L at PUR, win 1 in the BTT - #7/8 seed
(6) W vs. MICH, L at PUR, lose 1 in the BTT - #8/9 seed
(9) L vs. MICH, L at PUR, win 1 in the BTT - #9 seed
(10) L vs. MICH, L at PUR, lose 1 in the BTT - #10+ seed
I know, I know ... lotta ball to be played, it depends on who we beat/lose to in the BTT, depends on what other teams do, etc. However, it seems the OSU loss capped our ceiling at a #6 seed even if we beat Purdue, unless we make a run to the BTT Championship Game. On the other end, I really can't see us dropping past a #10 or #11 seed in the worst case scenario ... in other words, even in our full meltdown, lose-out scenario, we likely sneak JUST in front of the true Bubble teams who are getting the last #11 seeds and the #12 seeds.
I’d literally rather be a 10 I think, haha.
Oh for sure. My preference would go:I’d rather be a 7..you play a 2 anyway if you win and a 7 means we finished the season strong.
What you touch on in your last sentence is why I've always kind of had a problem with the "the tournament is just luck" narrative that's been floated. Yes, anything can happen in one single game. But stringing together 6 consecutive good games against other good teams is not luck. It's really difficult to do and requires a skilled, consistent team. That's why it's the ultimate goal.The depressing problem is that, from a basic statistics standpoint, that's nearly impossible with what we have seen right now. There seems to be a roughly 30-40% chance we just don't show up at all, and when you string those consecutively ... advancing in a single-elimination tournament is REALLY hard.