I would love to get the 8/9 in Alabama's region. Should want no part of Houston, they're everything we are as far as a long and athletic team but better in every facet and without the same weaknesses. That's one team I can confidently take 15+ points over Illinois and have little confidence in an upset. Alabama is a good team but they shoot a ton of threes, and aren't elite at making them (34 %) so they can have a bad day. They rebound better than us, but we rebound well enough that on paper they shouldn't completely dominate that matchup the way they have against most opponents. They are also a very young team, so they could get a bit of the NCAA tournament jitters, whereas most of our team has been there (Mayer, Shannon, Hawkins). Falling to 10 would be interesting as it could mean Duke to avoid a re-match, who isn't all that scary of a team.
Bracketology
- Status
Illinisteve25
- Champaign
Lets Go Buckeyes.... An Iowa loss would sure help us move closer to the 7seed.... Of course we gotta win too
are we for sure in the tourney?
Illinifan533
- Normal, Illinois
There was a crazy amount of parity this year in college basketball. Other years we might be closer to the bubble but fortunately not this year. On that note, I'd be more frustrated if I was an Arkansas or UNC fan. Both teams had Final Four expectations yet had seasons similar to ours.
Yes. Probably still on the 8/9 line
Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
With Penn State lined up as Elite 8 opponent.
Just wondering if anyone is absolutely certain that the Illlini will be seeded higher than Penn State?
Updated prediction from my previous post:
www.illinoisloyalty.com
32 Auto-bids
36 At-large
LOCKS - 32 At-Large
ACC: [Miami], Virginia, Duke
BIG10: [Purdue], Indiana, NW, MSU, Maryland, Illinois, Iowa, Rutgers, PSU
BIG12: [Kansas], Texas, Baylor, K State, TCU, Iowa State, Ok State, WVU
BIGE: [Marquette], Xavier, UConn, Creighton
PAC12: [UCLA], Arizona, Oregon
SEC: [Alabama], Texas A&M, Kentucky, Missouri, Tennessee, Auburn, Arkansas
Others: Saint Mary’s, Boise State, Memphis, Nevada
* teams in bracket assumed to count as auto-bid, not at-large, but no change in metrics as long as one of teams listed wins conference tourney
BUBBLE - CHOOSE 4
Utah State, NC State, Providence, Wisconsin, USC, ASU, Miss State
BUBBLE - ELIMINATED
Seton Hall, Michigan, Pitt, North Texas, New Mexico,
Bracketology / Weekend Games
Unfortunately the B1G had 5 teams in the 30’s and those don’t qualify for Q1 wins at home. Chance for teams to get Q1 wins in btt Imo Rutgers is in trouble to make ncaat without a good btt showing
www.illinoisloyalty.com
32 Auto-bids
36 At-large
LOCKS - 32 At-Large
ACC: [Miami], Virginia, Duke
BIG10: [Purdue], Indiana, NW, MSU, Maryland, Illinois, Iowa, Rutgers, PSU
BIG12: [Kansas], Texas, Baylor, K State, TCU, Iowa State, Ok State, WVU
BIGE: [Marquette], Xavier, UConn, Creighton
PAC12: [UCLA], Arizona, Oregon
SEC: [Alabama], Texas A&M, Kentucky, Missouri, Tennessee, Auburn, Arkansas
Others: Saint Mary’s, Boise State, Memphis, Nevada
* teams in bracket assumed to count as auto-bid, not at-large, but no change in metrics as long as one of teams listed wins conference tourney
BUBBLE - CHOOSE 4
Utah State, NC State, Providence, Wisconsin, USC, ASU, Miss State
BUBBLE - ELIMINATED
Seton Hall, Michigan, Pitt, North Texas, New Mexico,
Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
Depends on what Penn State does through rest of B1G Tournament.
If they lose tomorrow, I see Penn State as 10 or 11 seed. They could get up to 8 seed, IMO if they win the B1G tourney.
My guess is Illini have slightly higher seed, but would not be surprised if they have the same seed number.
Oh my sweet revenge would be so sweet. I seriously don't know what to expect.... All I know is I will be in Vegas with my friends in year 15 of our March madness trip... Many of which did not feature the illini. So if they make the tournament I will truly be happy!
Mr. Tibbs
- southeast DuPage
Am I wrong in wanting us to fall to like an 11? I feel like 6 seeds are usually pretty good mid major schools, or mid level p5s, and we can beat or lose to anyone so idk that it matters, but if we actually played to our highest potential and won games, we’d avoid a 1 seed until the elite 8.
Edit: I guess like anything, it depends on who we draw, what the matchup is. The ability to work Epps back (and to some extent Goode still) over this next week in practice, and maybe keep some guys on the floor that can consistently hit a 3 (as consistently as we have to offer) might go a long way for us. But if we can’t guard the other team with them out there, it’s a moot point.
Jay Wright made a statement during the game he called for us that has stuck with me since: he said it’s about how many 3s you make, not as much about the percentage you shoot them at. I have been wondering since if 10-35 from 3 is better than 7-15, especially when you consider how well we offensive rebound. I only being this up because 3 point shooting is the great equalizer, and seems especially so in the tournament.
Edit: I guess like anything, it depends on who we draw, what the matchup is. The ability to work Epps back (and to some extent Goode still) over this next week in practice, and maybe keep some guys on the floor that can consistently hit a 3 (as consistently as we have to offer) might go a long way for us. But if we can’t guard the other team with them out there, it’s a moot point.
Jay Wright made a statement during the game he called for us that has stuck with me since: he said it’s about how many 3s you make, not as much about the percentage you shoot them at. I have been wondering since if 10-35 from 3 is better than 7-15, especially when you consider how well we offensive rebound. I only being this up because 3 point shooting is the great equalizer, and seems especially so in the tournament.
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I am positive, generally, but I don't see us as a lock. Palm has us as a 10 right now and the third 10 at that. Assuming he's close, that's an awfully dangerous area to be in. I think that anyone who says that we're 100% is doing so to help themselves sleep at night(P.s....i don't consider the play in game as "in".
We'll see.
We'll see.
We’re a lock. And I didn’t stay in a Holiday Inn Express last night.
The only way we could possibly miss the tourney is if there is an insane number of bid stealers in the remaining conference tourney's. I'm talking like 5+ cinderella's and there are only 6 bid stealing conference tournaments still in play.
Exactly, the matchups are always more important than the seeding.
At this point it is very obvious we can't score consistently. If we get caught in a high scoring matchup, our offense will eventually sputter and we lose. I would much rather matchup with Kansas or Houston as 1 seeds, instead of someone like Arizona or Gonzaga as a 3 seed.
Bad defenses give up open looks. Problem is, we don't make those open looks so playing a team with bad defense doesn't really matter to us.
Illinois seeing PSU as a possible Elite 8 opponent (context for those unfamiliar: Magic is saying "I'm not gonna be here.")
Rooting interests for today's games:
Purdue vs. Rutgers, so Rutgers does not overtake us in seed
Florida Atlantic vs. Middle Tennessee, avoid a CUSA bid thief situation, although an FAU loss would likely knock them below Illinois
Houston vs. East Carolina, avoid an AAC bid thief situation
Alabama vs. Mississippi State, so Miss St. does not overtake us in seed
Michigan State vs. Ohio State, avoid a Big Ten bid thief situation
Tennessee vs. Missouri, probably irrelevant as Missouri is likely already higher, marginally pull for Tennessee
Northwestern vs. Penn State, so Penn State does not overtake us in seed
Memphis vs. UCF, to avoid an AAC bid thief situation, but a Memphis loss COULD move them below us
UCLA vs. Oregon, to avoid a Pac-12 bid thief situation
Kentucky vs. Vanderbilt, to avoid an SEC bid thief situation
Virginia vs. Clemson, to avoid an ACC bid thief situation
San Diego State vs. San Jose State, to avoid a Mountain West bid thief situation
Arizona vs. Arizona State, to avoid ASU overtaking us in seed
Utah State vs. Boise State is a bubble battle to watch so it's fairly neutral, Boise State is likely closer to safe right now, so maybe root for them to bring harm to Utah State, but if Boise State loses they will likely be below Illinois as well.
Purdue vs. Rutgers, so Rutgers does not overtake us in seed
Florida Atlantic vs. Middle Tennessee, avoid a CUSA bid thief situation, although an FAU loss would likely knock them below Illinois
Houston vs. East Carolina, avoid an AAC bid thief situation
Alabama vs. Mississippi State, so Miss St. does not overtake us in seed
Michigan State vs. Ohio State, avoid a Big Ten bid thief situation
Tennessee vs. Missouri, probably irrelevant as Missouri is likely already higher, marginally pull for Tennessee
Northwestern vs. Penn State, so Penn State does not overtake us in seed
Memphis vs. UCF, to avoid an AAC bid thief situation, but a Memphis loss COULD move them below us
UCLA vs. Oregon, to avoid a Pac-12 bid thief situation
Kentucky vs. Vanderbilt, to avoid an SEC bid thief situation
Virginia vs. Clemson, to avoid an ACC bid thief situation
San Diego State vs. San Jose State, to avoid a Mountain West bid thief situation
Arizona vs. Arizona State, to avoid ASU overtaking us in seed
Utah State vs. Boise State is a bubble battle to watch so it's fairly neutral, Boise State is likely closer to safe right now, so maybe root for them to bring harm to Utah State, but if Boise State loses they will likely be below Illinois as well.
OnlyOrange
- Belleville, IL
This is all fair, unless you're of my belief that:
- We're safely in
- I wouldn't hate moving down from the 9 line to the 10 line
Likely won't make much difference as I assume these guys are one and done, but if we play our best game, it's marginally more possible that we could stay competitive against a 2 seed than a 1 seed.
Should note that of teams on the 10/11/First Four Out bracket matrix line yesterday, USC, Providence, North Carolina State, Pittsburgh, Nevada, Oklahoma State, Michigan and North Carolina all lost and thus can no longer improve their resumes. So that was very good. Arizona State was the only projected "First Four Out" team that won, which was over USC (who came into yesterday a projected 10). Clemson and Oregon both might move up closer to the cut line, but should still be firmly on the "Out" side as things stand but can improve today with games against Virginia and UCLA.
None of yesterday's 10/11/First Four Out picked up particularly resume boosting wins, Penn State over yours truly being the best win amongst that group. Moving it up to the Projected 9's, Auburn and West Virginia lost, Arkansas won (over Auburn) and Memphis plays their AAC Quarterfinal game today.
It was overall a pretty good day yesterday as far as getting "help" goes. This is a pretty weak field cut line this year, imo. It seems the 300 something "non-tournament teams" are closer to the 36 "at large" teams this year than they have been in a lot of prior years.
None of yesterday's 10/11/First Four Out picked up particularly resume boosting wins, Penn State over yours truly being the best win amongst that group. Moving it up to the Projected 9's, Auburn and West Virginia lost, Arkansas won (over Auburn) and Memphis plays their AAC Quarterfinal game today.
It was overall a pretty good day yesterday as far as getting "help" goes. This is a pretty weak field cut line this year, imo. It seems the 300 something "non-tournament teams" are closer to the 36 "at large" teams this year than they have been in a lot of prior years.
Look on the bright side. What really surprised me the most this season are Michigan and N.C.'s demise. Goes to show that anything can happen. N.C. had all of the preseason polls wrapped with most all of their team back and guys coming through the portal to bolster their chances. For once baby blue nation has to be frustrated.
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