Yes, we can't rule that out for sure. For the # of attempts and difference in shooting percentages, there is an ~85% chance that the prior year 3pt% was indeed "better" (meaning not just due to variance). But some of that 85% includes possibilities that they were actually closer than the % ended up at (just as it includes possibilities that they were actually further apart).
Illini Basketball 2026-2027
Tongue-in-cheek on my Boswell comments, but he is the difference-maker here in the discrepancy. I think you're really close to that 34.9% number without him.
And without the statistical deep-dive, I'd have leaned that way anyhow. How does a 38% shooter across multiple seasons become a 27% shooter?
Problem solved? Kylan Boswell = "Illinois 3 point curse"
I made a mistake in these calculations. They should be:
Season | Transfers' aggregate 3pt% change from prior year | Team 3pt attempt rate
2020-21 | +3.6% | 30.0
2022-23 | -2.1% | 41.9
2023-24 | -1.9% | 38.6
2024-25 | -6.2% | 47.2
2025-26 | -8.3% | 49.7
Or, if you want to exclude players coming from non-power conferences:
2020-21 | +2.5% | 30.0 |
2022-23 | -2.1% | 41.9
2023-24 | +2.7% | 38.6
2024-25 | -6.7% | 47.2
2025-26 | -8.3% | 49.7
These look even more correlated with our 3pt attempt rate except for 2023-24. And while the sample sizes are small, some of the differences are large enough to still be meaningful. For this past season, there's an 87% chance that the difference isn't due to variance, and 88% for the prior year's class. There's only a 60% chance that variance doesn't explain why the 2023-24 transfers shot better.
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Moving up from low/mid-major may also have the opposite effect in some scenarios, where you have players who were focus points for opposing defenses and aren’t now, and/or heavy usage shot generators at that level who now get mostly uncontested feet-set in-rhythm attempts.
Overall, the question as a whole is likely far too complex to answer. But I’m also not sure it’s worth the effort as it’s something that was pointing up for a couple years, now pointing down… could be pointed upward again if we revisit in a couple of years from now.
If you take out all the guys who jumped a level and Boswell, then they were 34.3% before transferring and 33.8% after. But I don't think we should ignore Boswell just as we shouldn't blow his % out of proportion. We're talking about a 2.3% difference even with him.
My guess is that the staff is comfortable with that since ORB% changes the threshold for a good 3pt%, so the light should be greener with our size.
Are there any thoughts on an explanation of why this is besides a statistical anomaly or a curse? Different conditioning, more pressure to succeed (meaning step up in competition), more difficult shots (off-the-dribble, off a screen, in the corner, etc.)....?
I was living on the side of the aisle where it didn't seem like there was any way that it would make sense for there to be a true difference for transfers to shoot more poorly when they came to Illinois, but it seems like there's enough irrefutable evidence to suggest otherwise...
If you look at the other side of the transfer flow, if you look at guys who transferred out, you notice a similar pattern:
Tre White: 32.9% in 2025 -> 40.3% in 2026
DGL: 25.5% in 2025 -> 40.8% in 2026
Carey Booth: 24% in 2025 (on limited opportunities) -> 41.2% in 2026
Luke Goode 38.9% in 2024 -> 39.2% in 2025 (virtually the same)
Jayden Epps: 30.1% in 2023 -> 30.5% in 2024 (virtually the same)
Skyy Clark: 33.3% in 2023 -> 35.4% in 2024
RJ Melendez: 26.4% in 2023 -> 30.4% in 2024
Jacob Grandison: 41% in 2022 -> 33.7% in 2023 (only drop i could find in limited research)
These ones have easier explanations in a vacuum but when you consider the main argument, seems like another data point to suggest that there is something about being at Illinois that leads to transfers (both in and out) having a worse shooting % while they're at Illinois.
impact might beeven more because he will have the ball in his hand a lot more and asked to do more than just shoot. not to undervalue plummer
Right. Plummer averaged 14.6/2.5/1.1
I think Vaaks should be around 14/4/4.
.....
Vaaks should average 14 without much of a stretch, IMO.
At Providence, he averaged 2.9 3PM / 2.0 2PM / 3.0 FTM (per game).
Now, those FTM and 2PM are actually pretty low (especially 2PM). His skill set won't be very downhill-oriented, but Kylan, KJ, and Keaton were all significantly ahead in their time here.
But still, if we take those same numbers and just adjust the 3PM to 2.4 (because his attempts will be a lot lower) we get:
(2.4 * 3) + (2.0 * 2) + (3.0) = 14.2 points per game.
If things really take a leap he could be in the 15-16 range.
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Some great rage-bait here
Tre White whose percentage improved after coming to Illinois
What are the sample sizes at Illinois for Booth & DGL?
I still have more questions than answers at this point!
Kylan Boswell still seems like the major differentiating factor here
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I actually think it's very on-point.
You're probably just reading it wrong and upside down. Cadeau is 10 and Fears is 1.
Here's that same chart for Michael Jordan, Bulls years only, starting in 1987 (to remove the injury that kept him out most of year 2):
1987-88 | -5.0% | 0.6 (-0.2)
1988-89 | +14.4% | 1.6 (+0.6)
1989-90 | +10.0% | 3.0 (+1.4)
1990-91 | -6.4% | 1.1 (-1.9)
1991-92 | -4.2% | 1.3 (+0.2)
1992-93 | +8.2% | 2.9 (+1.6)
1995-96 | +7.5% | 3.2 (+0.3)
1996-97 | -5.3% | 3.6 (+0.4)
1997-98 | -13.6% | 1.5 (-2.1)
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All this talk of Leron had me wondering what he was up to, looks like he is currently a developmental coach for the trailblazers. I think a fun exercise would be a list of where are they now for the bigger name guys from each coach. If anyone who loves to make lists and has the time wants to take that on I bet it would be an interesting read.
Almost a guarantee, so we just need to make sure this 9th man who is going to mostly get spot minutes and mop up duty in blowouts shot 50% from from 3 last season. Also needs to be athletic and a plus defender. But still be willing to rack up a number of DNPs and outings where he only gets 1 or 2 minutes.I am now terrified that if we get our 9th man as a transfer, they will shoot worse from 3.
Pass the cottage cheese.
Don't forget that they need to be cheap
I wondered if team 3pt attempt rate might be a factor. --- Dangit, I had the wrong year for Plummer's transfer, so I grabbed the wrong team 3pt attempt rate. Where I had 2020-21, it should've been 2021-22, and we had a 42.6 3pt attempt rate, so that kind of debunks that theory (although Plummer was our only transfer that year).
Looking at the aggregate of our outgoing transfers: excluding those who dropped a level, they were 332-967 (34.3%) their last year at Illinois, and 417-1240 (33.6%) their first year at their new school and had slightly lower 3pt attempt rates. If I include those who dropped a level, that flips to an improvement (33.2% -> 36.1% including Podz or 33.3% -> 35.1% without), but there's a decent reason to ignore those.
New theory: players generally improve (on average) throughout their career, but maybe the adjustments to a new system (on average) cause a step back in year one?
What's the third column?Here's that same chart for Michael Jordan, Bulls years only, starting in 1987 (to remove the injury that kept him out most of year 2):
1987-88 | -5.0% | 0.6 (-0.2)
1988-89 | +14.4% | 1.6 (+0.6)
1989-90 | +10.0% | 3.0 (+1.4)
1990-91 | -6.4% | 1.1 (-1.9)
1991-92 | -4.2% | 1.3 (+0.2)
1992-93 | +8.2% | 2.9 (+1.6)
1995-96 | +7.5% | 3.2 (+0.3)
1996-97 | -5.3% | 3.6 (+0.4)
1997-98 | -13.6% | 1.5 (-2.1)
Alas, I'm resigned to a 9th man by committee for this season. #notidealI am now terrified that if we get our 9th man as a transfer, they will shoot worse from 3.
Pass the cottage cheese.
Really boils down to if he takes more attempts, we need to get back a few more misses
Yeah it seems like the statistical anomaly for outgoing is Tre White, who went from 32.9% on 70 attempts at Illinois to 40.3% on 139 attempts at Kansas. To your point, players generally improve, but he definitely took a big leap when he went to Kansas in terms of 3P shooting (he actually decreased in 2P).
You and others have done a great job looking at publicly available data to explore this; assuming those currently commenting/sharing analysis aren't insiders, I'm curious if there's anyone who is close to the team that would be able to fill in some of the nuance here. As others have noted (may have been you, I forget) the emphasis on offensive rebounding masks a pedestrian 3P% but Illinois hasn't cracked the top 100 in D-1 since 2022, so I'm generally curious why that is.
Have we ever went into a season knowing exactly who the #9thman would be?