2016 White Sox

#152      

Illiniwek06

Illiniwek06
N of I-80
Illiniwek06
From a couple years ago -

After examining how important each batting event (single, double, walk, etc.) is to each lineup slot — based on factors such as how many runners are likely to be on base and how many outs they’re likely to hit with — the data says a team ought to bat its three best hitters in the No. 1, No. 2 and No. 4 slots, with the most balanced hitter occupying the two-hole. That’s a far cry from the conventional wisdom of slotting the best hitter either third or fourth, and putting a weak contact specialist at No. 2.

...

Sabermetrics has come a long way since the first analysts began tinkering with mathematical models, and there are certainly places where statistical thinking has made its way onto the field (for example, the explosion of defensive shifts in today’s game is rooted in probability theory regarding where a batter is most likely to hit the ball). But when it comes to the two-hole, baseball’s decision-makers still have a bit of a climb ahead of them.
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http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/...ere-managers-are-still-ignoring-sabermetrics/
 
#153      

IntenselyOrange

I
IntenselyOrange
Illiniwek06 said:
From a couple years ago -



http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/...ere-managers-are-still-ignoring-sabermetrics/
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I guess I did not quite remember the details correctly. I had this idea in my head that 2 and 5 were the most important spots for hitters - although I might be specifically thinking of hitters with good slugging. I can even remember the rationale being that the most common first inning leaves the #4 hitter leading off the second inning which makes the #5 spot a second #2 spot. So, you wanted high OBP guys at 1 and 4 and high OPS guys at 2 and 5. I guess I just made that up. Thanks for the clarification.
 
#154      

Illiniwek06

Illiniwek06
N of I-80
Illiniwek06
IntenselyOrange said:
I guess I did not quite remember the details correctly. I had this idea in my head that 2 and 5 were the most important spots for hitters - although I might be specifically thinking of hitters with good slugging. I can even remember the rationale being that the most common first inning leaves the #4 hitter leading off the second inning which makes the #5 spot a second #2 spot. So, you wanted high OBP guys at 1 and 4 and high OPS guys at 2 and 5. I guess I just made that up. Thanks for the clarification.
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No problem - the gist of your point still stands, though - the second spot is too valuable to have guys like Rollins bat there, like Ventura does.
 
#155      

Bailey

B
Los Angeles
Bailey
qcillini13 said:
There doesn't need to be any more logic to it than that.
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The logic doesn't need to be any more complicated than giving your best hitters the most opportunities to hit, as in, giving them more at bats and not taking the bat out of their hands (bunting).

These decisions fall directly on the manager.

It is baffling how often Robin botches these very simple decisions.
 
#156      

qcillini13

Q
qcillini13
Bailey said:
The logic doesn't need to be any more complicated than giving your best hitters the most opportunities to hit, as in, giving them more at bats and not taking the bat out of their hands (bunting).

These decisions fall directly on the manager.

It is baffling how often Robin botches these very simple decisions.
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So who do you want at the 2 slot? Abreu is not a 2 slot hitter. Maybe Cabrera but then who bats 5? We don't have a DH. In a perfect world you don't have Rollins playing. We don't live in a perfect world. In a perfect world we could move Cabrera up to the 2 hole and have a good DH hitting 5. We aren't in a perfect world.

Lawrie could be an option I guess but I think he strikes out to much. If you put Frazier in the 2 hole who protects Abreu?

BTW, the last time I saw someone complaining because we tried to bunt people over was when Rollins was laying one down. When was the last time Abreu, Eaton, or Frazier were asked to lay one down? Two on no outs have Rollins lay one down to get 2 guys in scoring position (because he isn't hitting anyway right?) I'd still do that today.
 
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#157      

Bailey

B
Los Angeles
Bailey
Just as I suspected, Robin reads this board

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#159      

Bailey

B
Los Angeles
Bailey
#161      

Bailey

B
Los Angeles
Bailey
Of course Rollins is a career .452 hitter against tonight's starter, by the way. :congrats:
 
#163      

Bailey

B
Los Angeles
Bailey
Preparing myself to see Abreu bunting Eaton over from 2nd with nobody out and a lead.
 
#165      

Bailey

B
Los Angeles
Bailey
qcillini13 said:
Two on no outs have Rollins lay one down to get 2 guys in scoring position (because he isn't hitting anyway right?) I'd still do that today.
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Ah, now I remember. This has actually happened twice in the last month, and both times it was mind numbing. Let's recap:

May 3 vs Boston: Steven Wright, a knuckleballer (an extremely difficult pitch to productively bunt, mind you), walks two straight hitters on 9 pitches. Jimmy Rollins attempts to bunt the first pitch he sees. I, in response, need to walk away from my desk at work so I don't flip it.

May 9 vs Texas: Similar situation. Immediately following Robin trying to sac bunt Eaton. Eaton walks. Rollins count is 3-0. Rollins SHOWS BUNT AT 3-0 I WANT TO PASS OUT JUST REMEMBERING IT. The count eventually goes full, where Rollins bunts it foul giving up an out when the pitcher can't find the zone again, and jesus christ, I need a nap now.
 
#166      

IntenselyOrange

I
IntenselyOrange
Bailey said:
Ah, now I remember. This has actually happened twice in the last month, and both times it was mind numbing. Let's recap:

May 3 vs Boston: Steven Wright, a knuckleballer (an extremely difficult pitch to productively bunt, mind you), walks two straight hitters on 9 pitches. Jimmy Rollins attempts to bunt the first pitch he sees. I, in response, need to walk away from my desk at work so I don't flip it.

May 9 vs Texas: Similar situation. Immediately following Robin trying to sac bunt Eaton. Eaton walks. Rollins count is 3-0. Rollins SHOWS BUNT AT 3-0 I WANT TO PASS OUT JUST REMEMBERING IT. The count eventually goes full, where Rollins bunts it foul giving up an out when the pitcher can't find the zone again, and jesus christ, I need a nap now.
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On the surface, Rollins bunting is not bad. Given the specific situations you outline, it is quite a bad decision. I did not see either of those specific situations.

But, if Abreu or Frazier were in the 2-hole, they would have been up in those situations backed up by the other and Cabrera. So then you would have had 3 legitimate shots to score multiple runs.
 
#167      

Joel Goodson

Joel Goodson
respect my decision™
Joel Goodson
Bailey said:
Ah, now I remember. This has actually happened twice in the last month, and both times it was mind numbing. Let's recap:

May 3 vs Boston: Steven Wright, a knuckleballer (an extremely difficult pitch to productively bunt, mind you), walks two straight hitters on 9 pitches. Jimmy Rollins attempts to bunt the first pitch he sees. I, in response, need to walk away from my desk at work so I don't flip it.

May 9 vs Texas: Similar situation. Immediately following Robin trying to sac bunt Eaton. Eaton walks. Rollins count is 3-0. Rollins SHOWS BUNT AT 3-0 I WANT TO PASS OUT JUST REMEMBERING IT. The count eventually goes full, where Rollins bunts it foul giving up an out when the pitcher can't find the zone again, and jesus christ, I need a nap now.
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Great post. Thanks for providing concrete reasons why I should stay away. But w/Quintana going tonight, I'll watch.

If Sale wins 30 and Q gets 20, can the Sox scrounge 45 or so more wins from the rest of the staff? Seriously doubt it. A shame, because the Sox could ride Sale to the title. And, yes, I know that 30 and 20 are far fetched.
 
#168      

Bailey

B
Los Angeles
Bailey
Joel Goodson said:
Great post. Thanks for providing concrete reasons why I should stay away. But w/Quintana going tonight, I'll watch.

If Sale wins 30 and Q gets 20, can the Sox scrounge 45 or so more wins from the rest of the staff? Seriously doubt it. A shame, because the Sox could ride Sale to the title. And, yes, I know that 30 and 20 are far fetched.
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The frustrating part is, Rodon is really good. As good of stuff as either Q or Sale. He's just a young pitcher with command issues right now. There's no doubt in my mind he's a front end starter still learning on the job.
 
#169      

Branson53

B
Branson53
Bailey said:
The frustrating part is, Rodon is really good. As good of stuff as either Q or Sale. He's just a young pitcher with command issues right now. There's no doubt in my mind he's a front end starter still learning on the job.
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I agree completely. Coming into the season I was thinking we had 3 potential aces in our rotation. At the very least a top tier ace and two high number 2's. Rodon is still pretty young though and figuring it out. Hopefully he can get into a nice groove like he was in his last 8 or so starts last season.

When the whole team is in a slump it's not pretty. Hopefully we will be able to break out of it this week and rattle off a few wins against the Royals and tribe or we are going to be in trouble.
 
#173      

Bailey

B
Los Angeles
Bailey
Today is about as important a day of baseball can get in May.