AyoDos11
- Southern Illinois
100%. And you can also use bracket matrix to see on average what our matchup would be. For instance, the average 13 seeds are Samford, Yale, UC Irvine, and Akron.
Bracketology
- Status
On Saturday the committee reveals their early top 16 seeds. Guessing we will be one of the 4 seeds. Will give us a good gauge of where we're at and what we need to vs our peers in the final stretch.
totally agree (well, except for the use of the 1950’s word foolhardy
)No thanks on Sanford. One of my favorite go to’s on DraftKings. They are full of great shooters. The type of team that sneaks into the Sweet 16 against overlooking first round teams and short prepped second rounders.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
This will obviously depend on how the rest of the field performs in comparison - probably more true this year than any year in recent memory - but does anybody have a prediction for what regular season finish correlates to what seed? I would say even winning out MIGHT not get us a #2 seed, but it could (that would be anywhere from 3-4 more Quad 1 wins ... unsure how that would compare to others). It would also depend on who we beat, of course. I would guess:
#2 Seed: Only chance is winning out, no?
#3 Seed: 6-1 or better. Especially if the one loss is respectable (i.e., Quad 1 at Iowa or something) paired with two impressive Quad 1 wins (at Wisconsin and vs. Purdue).
#4 Seed: 5-2. However, I do not think we can lose to both Wisconsin and Purdue ... we need one of those marquee victories.
#5/6 Seed: 4-3. This would likely mean no more "good wins," and we might even be lucky to get the 5? If other teams perform better in comparison, we could be bumped to the #6 line.
#7+ Seed: 3-4 or worse. Let's not let this happen, lol.
#2 Seed: Only chance is winning out, no?
#3 Seed: 6-1 or better. Especially if the one loss is respectable (i.e., Quad 1 at Iowa or something) paired with two impressive Quad 1 wins (at Wisconsin and vs. Purdue).
#4 Seed: 5-2. However, I do not think we can lose to both Wisconsin and Purdue ... we need one of those marquee victories.
#5/6 Seed: 4-3. This would likely mean no more "good wins," and we might even be lucky to get the 5? If other teams perform better in comparison, we could be bumped to the #6 line.
#7+ Seed: 3-4 or worse. Let's not let this happen, lol.
lstewart53x3
- Scottsdale, Arizona
My exact thoughts. Win out + win 1-2 in the B1G tourney and we’re a 2 seed.
Every additional regular season loss drops us a seed line.
So far I don't see other teams claiming spots 7-16 and taking care of their own business, maybe they all right their ships and don't lose more than 1 but I'd guess quite a few in contention drop 2-3 games (don't know whom). I think 6-1 could get a #2 provided we win one of WI, PU AND IF a few others continue to stumble (eg, UNC @Syracuse), likewise 4-3 could get a 4/5 if losses are WI, PD, and #IA/MD AND probably even more teams stumble.
I really like our trajectory and think we finish out strong. I think TSJ on Young and practice this week on D get us past MD. Think we handle PSU easily. Past few games give us tape on how to play D on WI. PU is going to be an E8 caliber game and AH will be rocking. MD showed if you get inside on IA they have no D and will foul and on D take away the 3. Winning out guarantees a #2 and 6-1 lands us a #2/3. IA/OSU/MD are NET 70-75 and @ will be 1B/2A.
Maybe overconfident but not going to contemplate your #5/6/7 scenarios.
Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
5/6/7 seeding scenarios in mid-February being a complete disaster scenario is quite the difference from when Brad was brought in. At this time of year a mere few years ago, we were thinking of how many wins needed to make tourney/what NIT seed would be. What a program turnaround...now to get over the hump and make it into the second weekend of the tourney.
EDIT: Also so refreshing to be in the "lock" section of ESPN's Bubble Watch on the first publication
Maryland is in the top 75 now too.
If you define the trajectory as established by just the last two games, I'm with you. Loss to big win is infinite improvement, isn't it?
frozenrope9190
- Aurora, IL
To be honest I think you're leaning more on the pessimistic side. Other teams are losing too, at an alarming rate this year. We dont have the same amount of signature wins, but weve lost only 6. and to nobody outside the Top 60. Our conference doesnt have a lot of head toppers, but the bottom feeders are a lot better than other conference bottom feeders (Notre Dame, DePaul, Georgetown, Louisville, Missouri, Vanderbilt, West Virginia, OK state, all those Pac 12 teams, Air Force, San Jose st) So wins against Rutgers and Ohio State carry more weight than other comferences easy wins. That matters. I would put an additional loss up and down the entire listing to match what the.projection.
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lstewart53x3
- Scottsdale, Arizona
Arizona is the only team to have 7 Q1 wins (7-3) outside the big 3. They do have a Q3 loss, which could hurt them if a team like Marquette (currently 6-4 in Q1 games) stacks more Q1s without any bad losses.
lstewart53x3
- Scottsdale, Arizona
Our big problem right now is our resume still is not good. We currently have 7 Q1/Q2 wins. I counted 18 teams with 8 or more. Our resume is still playing catch up with our efficiency.
It's a much bigger problem than a decent number of people on here think.
Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
Unless Maryland makes a big jump, the loss to Maryland is outside top 60 (top 75 right now).
DeonThomas
- South Carolina
Way too pessimistic I do believe.
We're up to a #2 seed on KenPom today, and only the top 3 (UConn, PUR and HOU) are near-locks for a #1 seed. And even Purdue is currently down 8 at halftime to Minnesota.
I'm sort of leaning toward a #3 seed right now. We're not expected to beat Purdue at home nor Wisconsin on the road. 5-2 regular season and 2-1 in the BTT locks us into a 2/3 seed. Anxious to see what the Committee thinks this weekend.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
I'm glad to convince myself to agree with you, fellas! I am usually a glass-half-full guy. I guess I reasoned we really needed that MSU win to stay on track for a #3 seed (which would suggest the opportunity for a #2 seed if we "overachieve" or whatever). However, yeah, this is our resume today:
Record: 18-6
NET Ranking: #13
Q1: 3-5
Q2: 4-1
Q3: 6-0 (Maryland moved up!!)
Q4: 5-0
If we went 6-1 down the stretch with the only loss being, say, at Iowa ... this is a damn fine resume (using current NET Rankings and Quad categories)!
W at #75 Maryland (Q1)
W at #98 Penn State (Q2)
W vs. #70 Iowa (Q2
W vs. #88 Minnesota (Q3)
W at #20 Wisconsin (Q1)
W vs. #2 Purdue (Q1)
L at #70 Iowa (Q1)
Record: 24-7
NET Ranking: ???? Almost certainly top 10?
Q1: 6-6
Q2: 6-1
Q3: 7-0 (Maryland moved up!!)
Q4: 5-0
P.S. While I want to win them all, PLEASE don't let us lose in Iowa City. I will be at that one, lol.
lstewart53x3
- Scottsdale, Arizona
While it’s encouraging to see us at 8 in KenPom, efficiency metrics do not appear to be taken into account when seeding the tournament.
As someone pointed out a few days ago, there were plenty of teams 3+ seed lines off their KenPom ranking. The AP poll seems to be more closely correlated with seeding than KenPom or NET (probably because the AP poll is based on wins and losses and so is the tournament.).
I hear what you’re saying about Purdue, but even if Purdue would have lost tonight, they still have 15(!) Q1/Q2 wins. The next closest team outside the big 3 is Tennessee with 10.
That means Purdue could lose out and Tennessee could win out and Purdue might *still* have more Q1/Q2 wins than Tennessee and every other 2 seed.
We currently have 7 Q1/Q2 wins. If we won out, we would have 13. So we could win out and Purdue could lose out and Purdue would *still* have a better resume than us.
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Wow, I didn’t so much before…but when you put it like that…I’m now certain that:
Illinicpa14
- Chicago
I totally get there’s 20 variables affecting the net and outcomes but if you take a step back looking at a use case last night when there wasn’t so many total games being played:
Minnesota and Rutgers enter the day 88 and 89 in net…
Minnesota loses on the road by 8 to #1 and moves up 8 spots
Rutgers wins at home by 3 to a top 60 NET and consensus tournament team right now and moves up only 3 spots
Would anyone say that you’d rather have Minnesotas outcome last night other than “yeah we hung pretty tough last night”. By the final score and metrics, it’s not even a 2 score game (i get watching it was a lot closer).
And yet those small movements around NET 65-85 have huge implications at what’s deemed Q1/Q2/Q3 for top 20 teams fighting for seed.
Minnesota and Rutgers enter the day 88 and 89 in net…
Minnesota loses on the road by 8 to #1 and moves up 8 spots
Rutgers wins at home by 3 to a top 60 NET and consensus tournament team right now and moves up only 3 spots
Would anyone say that you’d rather have Minnesotas outcome last night other than “yeah we hung pretty tough last night”. By the final score and metrics, it’s not even a 2 score game (i get watching it was a lot closer).
And yet those small movements around NET 65-85 have huge implications at what’s deemed Q1/Q2/Q3 for top 20 teams fighting for seed.
Ol' Lunardi has us as a 4 seed with 5 seed BYU lurking (#9 in NET)... oh lord, another highly NET ranked #5 seed... The PTSD is real.
I think its useful when comparing teams that have similar resumes. Right now we probably have a 6 seed resume, but our numbers would give us a 4 seed imo.
Rutgers from NET 89 to 86. Another 11 points and they make our resume look better.
- Status