Bracketology
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In Palm's bracket, they had us playing the 1st 2 rounds out in Spokane.
My apologies if this has already been posted...
ACC doing what the B1G will do next year for their conference tournament, with only the top 15 making the conference tournament, meaning the bottom 3 won't be in: https://www.cbssports.com/college-b...n-will-stay-with-20-game-conference-schedule/
ACC doing what the B1G will do next year for their conference tournament, with only the top 15 making the conference tournament, meaning the bottom 3 won't be in: https://www.cbssports.com/college-b...n-will-stay-with-20-game-conference-schedule/
Auburn losing helps too
Yeah that's going be an interesting one. They blew out a ranked team by 40 and lost to a ranked team both at home. Do they stay where they are at? Do we jump them?
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
So we know we were the third #4 seed this morning. Have to figure we at least jump Auburn today? Each win is a step toward a #3 seed, keep ‘em comin’!!
IlliniMike_Aurora
Straight outta Champaign
S Car is 57 kpom and 50 net and lost today to 92 lsu at home. AP rank was a joke.
DeonThomas
- South Carolina
My personal take on the Top 16 seeds right now:
1. Purdue
2. UConn
3. Houston
4. Arizona
5. Tennessee
6. Marquette
7. North Carolina (probably overrated at #7)
8. Illinois (we can't stumble these next two games)
9. Iowa State
10.Alabama
11.Kansas
12.Duke
13.Baylor
14.Creighton
15.San Diego St. (not really sure they're better than Michigan State)
16.Dayton (not really sure they're better than Michigan State)
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
If I may flog a personal hobby horse, KenPom, NCAA seeding and poll rankings are measuring three different things and that is good and desirable.
The instinct to force the more narratively-driven AP Poll to follow the lead of the more cold-blooded "objective" metrics is something the modern world should be more skeptical of. Different things can have different purposes.
This won’t be the final. If we to win out. Could we move to the 1line. No one knows, but a good possibility.
NCAA seeding I agree with, to a point.
But what is the difference in what KenPom and the AP Poll are supposed to be measuring?
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
NCAA seeding is for the quality of a resume, having played and beaten good teams
KenPom is purely forward looking prediction, who do the analytics indicate would win a future game on a neutral court
The AP Poll is about buzz, who's hot, that sort of thing.
South Carolina beat two Top 6 ranked opponents within a week and had a gaudy record, give them the hype, they deserve it.
The nerds know the difference between us ending the Mizzou game in about 15 minutes versus South Carolina needing overtime to survive them, but the AP voters don't care about that sort of thing and within reason they shouldn't.
But that isn't what the AP Poll is intended to measure. It's not a "power rankings". It's intent is to measure the best 25 teams.
2018. The Big Ten had 4 teams make the tournament.
Purdue (2), MSU (3), Michigan (3), OSU (5)
With the Illini up 2 in the loss column on Wisky, Sparty, and Northwestern, the magic number is 4 to clinch the 2 seed in the Big Ten Tournament and/or the double bye. A combination of 4 Illini wins or losses by whichever one of those teams you want to pick (Northwestern is currently in 5th but plays today at IU) gets the Illini at worst the double bye and at best the 2 seed (Beating Purdue for the regular season title is a longshot at best at this point).
Wisconsin only has one game this upcoming week, at home vs. Maryland.
Michigan State has home games this week against Iowa and Ohio State.
In addition to today's game against IU, Northwestern hosts Michigan this week.
Wisconsin only has one game this upcoming week, at home vs. Maryland.
Michigan State has home games this week against Iowa and Ohio State.
In addition to today's game against IU, Northwestern hosts Michigan this week.
I hope we move off the 4 line. Not a good seed!
lstewart53x3
- Scottsdale, Arizona
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
A fair point that anything can happen in March, but any Illini fan who’s watched us in the Tournament as a #4 seed probably reasonably wants a change of scenery for the first time in a long time. I posted it earlier, but I’m pretty sure we’ve only beaten the #5 seed once. I really do believe the jump from a #4 to a #3 is one of the most significant in the bracket.
Fair point. Though the 9 seed in question also benefited from a bracket where they didn't have to face a top 2 seed during their run.
Illinicpa14
- Chicago
A lot can change but based on the next 3 teams the NCAA listed, I feel like the 5 seeds as of the reveal were worse then the likely 6s. I’d much rather play Dayton or Clemson (5s in the reveal) compared to say Kentucky or an FAU rematch.
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
I didn't realize how bad our NCAA history is relative to seed.
We have beaten a team seeded higher than us only twice ever, and only ever one seed line above:
2004 as a 5 over 4 Cincinnati
2011 as an 8 over 9 UNLV
We have lost to a team seeded lower than us SIXTEEN TIMES:
1981 as a 4 to 8 Kansas State
1983 as a 7 to 10 Utah
1986 as a 4 to 5 Alabama
1987 as a 3 to 14 Austin Peay
1988 as a 3 to 6 Villanova
1989 as a 1 to 3 Michigan
1990 as a 5 to 12 Dayton
1994 as an 8 to 9 Georgetown
1997 as a 6 to 14 Chattanooga
2000 as a 4 to 5 Florida
2001 as a 1 to 2 Arizona
2003 as a 4 to 5 Notre Dame
2006 as a 4 to 5 Washington
2009 as a 5 to 12 Western Kentucky
2021 as a 1 to 8 Loyola
2022 as a 4 to 5 Houston
We're 0-5 in 4 vs 5 seed matchups as the 4.
We have beaten a team seeded higher than us only twice ever, and only ever one seed line above:
2004 as a 5 over 4 Cincinnati
2011 as an 8 over 9 UNLV
We have lost to a team seeded lower than us SIXTEEN TIMES:
1981 as a 4 to 8 Kansas State
1983 as a 7 to 10 Utah
1986 as a 4 to 5 Alabama
1987 as a 3 to 14 Austin Peay
1988 as a 3 to 6 Villanova
1989 as a 1 to 3 Michigan
1990 as a 5 to 12 Dayton
1994 as an 8 to 9 Georgetown
1997 as a 6 to 14 Chattanooga
2000 as a 4 to 5 Florida
2001 as a 1 to 2 Arizona
2003 as a 4 to 5 Notre Dame
2006 as a 4 to 5 Washington
2009 as a 5 to 12 Western Kentucky
2021 as a 1 to 8 Loyola
2022 as a 4 to 5 Houston
In the 64 team era we've been a 4 seed 6 times. The only time we made the Sweet Sixteen we got the 5-12 upset on the other side (2002 Creighton beat Florida).
We're 0-5 in 4 vs 5 seed matchups as the 4.
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