MN from 88 to 80
Bracketology
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I saw that. Basically, if you give Purdue a good game AT Purdue, you go up. (Happened with us)
Rutgers has a chance to do this as they head to Purdue soon. Shoot, maybe they’ll just beat ‘em and get a 15 point boost.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
Unfortunately on the flip side...
1. Our OSU win is hanging on to Quad 1 status by a thread, as they are currently #71 and seem to be nosediving.
2. Our Maryland loss is hanging on as Quad 2 by even less of a thread, as they are quite literally at the #75 cutoff. Ideally, we would beat Maryland Saturday and they would win as many games as possible down the stretch. There are a couple Big Ten teams close to the cutoffs that one might want to keep an eye on:
#21 Michigan State. Need them to stay in the top 30 to keep our win against them in Champaign as Quad 1.
#60 Northwestern. If they can get into the top 50 (they were #56 before losing at RU), a win over them in Minneapolis would be Quad 1.
#69 Iowa. We need them in the top 75 to keep our game in Champaign Quad 2 and our game in Iowa City Quad 1.
#71 Ohio State. As stated before, we need that to remain a Quad 1 win.
#75 Maryland. Also stated above, but it would be really nice for them to be top 75 so we don't have a Quad 3 loss. It would also make a win Saturday another Quad 1 win.
#80 Minnesota. Sneakily close to getting into the top 75, which would make a victory in Champaign Quad 2.
#86 Rutgers. Given the standings, we very likely might run into Rutgers in Minneapolis. If they remain in the top 100, it will at least be a Quad 2 matchup.
#97 Penn State. Same thing as Rutgers ... might see them in the in BTT, and it would be good to have it NOT be a Quad 3 game.
#99 Indiana. See RU and PSU comments.
#114 Michigan. As of now, our win in Ann Arbor is Quad 2. However, that only remains the case as long as Michigan stays in the top 135.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
On this same note, didn't somebody say earlier that margin of victory matters for the NET Rankings in a way it did not used to? Games like Northwestern and Michigan at home where we just blow them out might help more than we think.I saw that. Basically, if you give Purdue a good game AT Purdue, you go up. (Happened with us)
Rutgers has a chance to do this as they head to Purdue soon. Shoot, maybe they’ll just beat ‘em and get a 15 point boost.
Yes that is true, it does take that into account. I believe Brad had eluded to it earlier in season as well. Sometimes the "why are those guys still in the game" question in answered by trying to game the NET and keep a huge margin of victory.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
Obviously, I do not know how much this metric really moves the needle ... but it makes the following results at home kind of frustrating:
W 71-68 vs. Michigan State. Went up 64-56 with 5 minutes to go. MSU ended the game on a 15-4 run that we thankfully survived at all.
W 70-62 vs. Indiana. Went up 5 late and looked to maybe be pulling away but let IU come back and tie the game with about a minute to go.
W 87-84 vs. Nebraska in OT. Hit a three to go up 10 with 3 minutes to go...
It probably will not make a huge difference, and you could argue it's counterbalanced by unusually extreme blowouts of Northwestern and Michigan at home.
OrangeBlue98
- Des Moines, IA
Brian Bennett of The Athletic has Illinois as a 4 in the Dallas regional with Houston as the 1. He's alternated quite a bit between Illinois as a 4 in Houston's bracket and with Arizona's bracket. Dayton is the 5 in the current bracket with Illinois.
Man, I'd MUCH prefer to see Illinois with an Arizona Sweet 16 matchup. I think Houston is a tough matchup for Illinois because they can match Illinois' toughness and is great on the offensive glass. I think Illinois can really play with Arizona because Arizona is more of a speed/finesse team (but still very good on the offensive glass, which is one of my top two concerns for Illinois matchups along with a good outside shooter who can go off).
Man, I'd MUCH prefer to see Illinois with an Arizona Sweet 16 matchup. I think Houston is a tough matchup for Illinois because they can match Illinois' toughness and is great on the offensive glass. I think Illinois can really play with Arizona because Arizona is more of a speed/finesse team (but still very good on the offensive glass, which is one of my top two concerns for Illinois matchups along with a good outside shooter who can go off).
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
I know this is said ad nauseum at this point, but man ... I just want nothing to do with the top half of the bracket. We have made the NCAA Tournament 25 times since the field expanded to 64 teams. Looking at the times where we were at least a #6 seed (i.e., what I would consider a decent team with an actual chance at a run), this is how it breaks down:
TOP HALF
1986: #4 seed. Second Round.
1989 #1 seed. Final Four.
1990: #5 seed. First Round.
1998: #5 seed. Second Round.
2000: #4 seed. Second Round.
2001: #1 seed. Elite Eight.
2002: #4 seed. Sweet Sixteen.
2003: #4 seed. Second Round.
2004: #5 seed. Sweet Sixteen.
2005: #1 seed. National Championship Game.
2006: #4 seed. Second Round.
2009: #5 seed. First Round.
2021: #1 seed. Second Round.
2022: #4 seed. Second Round.
BOTTOM HALF
1985: #3 seed. Sweet Sixteen.
1987: #3 seed. First Round.
1988: #3 seed. Second Round.
1993: #6 seed. Second Round.
1997: #6 seed. Second Round.
So it has been 27 years since we have had a decent team in the bottom half of the bracket. I know each season is its own thing, but I just personally have such PTSD about being a 4/5 ... it seems like your ceiling is winning an absolute battle in the Second Round and getting railroaded by a #1 seed in the Sweet Sixteen, while your floor is very realistically losing in a First Round upset to a mid-major conference champion. I know the grass always seems greener and our best runs have actually come from the top half (other than 2021, we have always lived up to expectations as a #1 seed), it's the 4/5 line that gives me nightmares. We have really only met or exceeded expectations twice on that seed line.
1986: #4 seed. Second Round. Lost to #5 Alabama 58-56.
1990: #5 seed. First Round. Lost to #12 Dayton 88-86.
1998: #5 seed. Second Round. Lost to #4 Maryland 67-61.
2000: #4 seed. Second Round. Lost to #5 Florida 93-76.
2002: #4 seed. Sweet Sixteen. Lost to #1 Kansas 73-69.
2003: #4 seed. Second Round. Lost to #5 Notre Dame 68-60.
2004: #5 seed. Sweet Sixteen. Lost to #1 Duke 72-62.
2006: #4 seed. Second Round. Lost to #5 Washington 67-64.
2009: #5 seed. First Round. Lost to #12 Western Kentucky 76-72.
2022: #4 seed. Second Round. Lost to #5 Houston 68-53.
If you want Illini nightmare fuel, as a #4/5 seed we are 2-6 in that Second Round matchup where you run into an equally seeded team. We are of course 0-2 once we get past that.
Thus is the quite sad NCAAT history of the Illini in the modern era, for the most part ... when we are good enough to get a #1 seed, we almost always make a deep run (2021 being the glaring exception). Conversely, when we drop down to that top 16-20 range and are a #4/5 seed, we usually lose to our equal and have never upset the #1 in the rare instances where we move to the Second Weekend.
I'd just love for once to be in that #2/3 seed range, avoid the #1 seeds and see what happens!
OrangeBlue98
- Des Moines, IA
Good points, but for me this is just all about matchups. Outside of UConn, everything else that could face Illinois is about getting the right matchup. Everything below is subjective and my opinion, of course.
What favors Illinois
- Teams without great athleticism
- Teams that struggle to defend in transition
- Teams that don't rebound well
- Teams that don't have someone who can create a shot on their own late in the shot clock
What doesn't favor Illinois
- Teams that rebound well on the offensive end
- Teams that can match Illinois' strength and toughness
- Teams that have a good shooting guard that can create his own shot or can release quickly
Those first two items in the last section are what really worry me. For example, I like a matchup against a team like Creighton because they sometimes struggle to get off a shot from the outside and aren't great in transition. Arizona's more of a speed/finesse team the times I've seen them. Honestly, the two teams that really, REALLY worry me from a matchups perspective are UConn (big surprise there, I know) and Houston. Those aren't good matchups for Illinois. I think Illinois is at least a good matchup with anyone else.
Matchups, making the shots you're supposed to make, and honestly just some luck will ultimately decide a team's path. The only two things I really worry about with Illinois are limiting second chance points and playing tough defense consistently. Making shots around the rim is a pretty distant 3rd.
I thought a few weeks ago it would take some time for us to regain our pre-TSJ suspension form and it has. However, I've seen signs that we're turning the corner.
Assuming we have, our currently questionable resume will take care of itself with the Iowa, Wisconsin and Purdue games to end the season followed up with the BTT. I expect by then we should be at full capacity.
Still need to fix the damn defense. That's more concerning to me than our resume.
Assuming we have, our currently questionable resume will take care of itself with the Iowa, Wisconsin and Purdue games to end the season followed up with the BTT. I expect by then we should be at full capacity.
Still need to fix the damn defense. That's more concerning to me than our resume.
I would love to see that one scenario where Nebby pulls off the 1 seed.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
For anyone considering a trip to Minneapolis, this is how those probabilities translate to the Illini's first game time:
59% chance we play at 5:30 pm on Friday (and 2:30 pm on Saturday if we win)
24% chance we play at ~8:00 pm on Friday (and 2:30 pm on Saturday if we win)
9% chance we play at ~1:30 pm on Friday (and 12:00 pm on Saturday if we win)
3% chance we play at 11:00 am on Friday (and 12:00 pm on Saturday if we win)
...
5% chance we play before Friday
Nebby has an equal chance to be the 14 seed, lol.
Dayton is a good team. Not deep, but a very good 3-pt shooting team. I know they have 2 guys who are 40%+ shooters from there and one of them is closer to 50% than he is to 40%. Not a particularly good rebounding team though.
Not to mention, he also has us back in Brooklyn.
Either win a bunch more games or lose 3 of 4. Either wins will do the trick.
OrangeBlue98
- Des Moines, IA
BYU is a team that has one of the things that worries me-good shooting. They don’t worry me in a lot of other areas. I’d put them in the same category as Creighton. The biggest difference is BYU will have Big 12 experience.
DeonThomas
- South Carolina
I see us as easily a #3 seed by the Committee. No question. No doubts.
Baylor - worse than us
Duke - worse than us
Iowa St - worse than us
BYU - worse than us
UNC - comparable to us
7-6 in Quads 1 & 2:
Purdue = a Top 4 road loss
Tenn = a Top 4 road loss
Marquette = a Top 8 loss
Mich St = a Top 20 road loss
I think that you're going to have your doubts in about 2.5 hours. We don't have any wins of note. MSU was a nice win, FAU was a nice win, but after that....there's not much. You literally put 4 losses up there and highlighted them as it not mattering because they were good. Nobody looks at it like....well, they lost four games, but didn't get blown out, so that's ok. No, they're losses and continue the the theme of no marquee wins.
If we wouldn't have pee'd down our leg at the MSU game and taken care of business versus Maryland....we'd be a 3. I have no problem with a 4. If you take an HONEST snapshot of our season.... we're in that 4 range. As we sit here TODAY, I think that we're closer to a 5 than a 3.
JMO of course.
I'm right there with you however, with as much parity as there is this year, I'm not sure it really matters. In other words, I'm not confident there won't be a high number of underseeded teams.
It will be an extremely difficult proposition for the committee to get it right. We should prepare ourselves for a higher than usual amount of grousing regarding seeding this season. (Luckily I don't pay much attention to Bilas anymore so I'll miss out on most of it)
As a number of other posters have pointed out, it all comes down to matchups. Praying we get a favorable draw this year.
As long as the 1 seed in our region isn't Purdue or Uconn, I personally don't care if we're on the 4/5 line. Those 2 teams are clearly a step above everyone else, but everyone else is beatable imo.
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