Bracketology

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#76      

frozenrope9190

frozenrope9190
Aurora, IL
frozenrope9190
The gap between teams 4 and 44 is so narrow this year, I dont feel as concerned about overall seeding except as an ego or aesthetics thing. Just have to get hot and stay disciplined that weekend, and we'll escape out of it.
 
#78      

battle

battle
battle
DeonThomas said:
I see us as easily a #3 seed by the Committee. No question. No doubts.

Baylor - worse than us
Duke - worse than us
Iowa St - worse than us
BYU - worse than us
UNC - comparable to us

7-6 in Quads 1 & 2:
Purdue = a Top 4 road loss
Tenn = a Top 4 road loss
Marquette = a Top 8 loss
Mich St = a Top 20 road loss
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"Here comes Duke. The Blue Devils have won three in a row since fading late at UNC ... Jon Scheyer looked his players in the face after the loss to UNC and they seem to have responded in a big way." 3 home wins against ND(154), BC(91), Wake(37) is "big way"???
Duke only a 3 seed based on name - their bad losses should put them behind us.

Q1 wins and Q2/3/4 losses. # of Q1 opportunities left (based on today's NET)
Illini 3W/1L. Wins: MSU(21), N-FAU(29), @OSU(71). Losses: MD(75). 4 Q1 chances left.
Duke 5W/3L. Wins: Baylor(12), N-MSU(21), Clemson(25), @Pitt(54), @Vtech(61). Losses: Pitt(54), @Ark(132), @GTech(142). 3 Q1 chances left.
IAST 5W/1L. Wins: Houston(1), Kansas(16), @TX(31), @TCU(39), @VCU(72) Losses: A&M(43). 3 Q1 chances left.
BYU 3W/1L. Wins: IAST(8), SDST(15), @UCF(66) Losses: Cincinnati(38). 3 Q1 chances left..
UNC 6W/2L. Wins: TN(7), Duke(17), @Clemson(25), @Oklahoma(33), @Pitt(54), @Miami(73). Losses: @Syr(87), @Gtech(142), (NC lost @Nova which I have no idea how they are #34 with 11 losses, they've looked horrible in multiple games I've watched including GTown last night). 2 Q1 chances left.

Big 12 has 11 teams Top 75 and KSU is 77
Remaining schedule gives us Q1 (or 2A) road wins we really need

predict we are 4 seed in reveal.
 
#80      

FreshlySqueezed

FreshlySqueezed
FreshlySqueezed
Kansas at 8 and Duke at 12 is terrible.

No Auburn yet is a bad sign for us.

15 overall for us. Wisconsin at 16.
 
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#82      

abchew2

A
abchew2
Surprised Wisconsin is still on the 4 line. Not sure why San Diego St is ahead of us and Duke being a 3 is a joke. Very much in range to get to a 3 which is good to see
 
#83      

lstewart53x3

lstewart53x3
Scottsdale, Arizona
lstewart53x3
abchew2 said:
Surprised Wisconsin is still on the 4 line. Not sure why San Diego St is ahead of us and Duke being a 3 is a joke. Very much in range to get to a 3 which is good to see
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I feel like most people here don’t understand how seeding works.

The committee doesn’t look at overall record or NET ranking.

The committee looks at your record in Q1/Q2 games (each win in these quadrants helps you) and they look at your record Q3/Q4 games (each loss in these quadrants hurts you).

Wisconsin is still a 4 a seed even with their recent skid because they’re 8-5 in Q1/Q2 games and have no Q3/Q4 losses. I’m actually surprised to see us seeded us ahead of them.

San Diego St is a 3 seed because they’re 8-6 in Q1/Q2 games with no Q3/Q4 losses.

Duke is a 3 seed because they’re 6-3 in Q1/Q2 games, though they do have one Q3 loss, which will hurt their final seed.

Looking at us, on the other hand, we’re currently 7-6 in Q1/Q2 games with no Q3/Q4 losses (though Maryland is on the edge).

Looking deeper at the numbers, we have just 3 Q1 wins, which hurts. Wisconsin has 6. Duke has 5. San Diego St has 5.

So we’re seeded right about where we should be at the moment.

The line between a 3 seed and a 4 seed is thin, we just have to start winning Q1/Q2 games to close out the season and we have a good shot at a 3 seed.
 
#84      

Second place is 1st loser

S
Second place is 1st loser
lstewart53x3 said:
I feel like most people here don’t understand how seeding works.

The committee doesn’t look at overall record or NET ranking.

The committee looks at your record in Q1/Q2 games (each win in these quadrants helps you) and they look at your record Q3/Q4 games (each loss in these quadrants hurts you).

Wisconsin is still a 4 a seed even with their recent skid because they’re 8-5 in Q1/Q2 games and have no Q3/Q4 losses. I’m actually surprised to see us seeded us ahead of them.

San Diego St is a 3 seed because they’re 8-6 in Q1/Q2 games with no Q3/Q4 losses.

Duke is a 3 seed because they’re 6-3 in Q1/Q2 games, though they do have one Q3 loss, which will hurt their final seed.

Looking at us, on the other hand, we’re currently 7-6 in Q1/Q2 games with no Q3/Q4 losses (though Maryland is on the edge).

Looking deeper at the numbers, we have just 3 Q1 wins, which hurts. Wisconsin has 6. Duke has 5. San Diego St has 5.

So we’re seeded right about where we should be at the moment.

The line between a 3 seed and a 4 seed is thin, we just have to start winning Q1/Q2 games to close out the season and we have a good shot at a 3 seed.
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I believe that San Diego State is a 4 seed
 
#86      

Illini231

I
Illini231
it's such a dumb system that a 1 point win today is theoretically better for our resume than a 10 point win
 
#88      

abchew2

A
abchew2
lstewart53x3 said:
I feel like most people here don’t understand how seeding works.

The committee doesn’t look at overall record or NET ranking.

The committee looks at your record in Q1/Q2 games (each win in these quadrants helps you) and they look at your record Q3/Q4 games (each loss in these quadrants hurts you).

Wisconsin is still a 4 a seed even with their recent skid because they’re 8-5 in Q1/Q2 games and have no Q3/Q4 losses. I’m actually surprised to see us seeded us ahead of them.

San Diego St is a 3 seed because they’re 8-6 in Q1/Q2 games with no Q3/Q4 losses.

Duke is a 3 seed because they’re 6-3 in Q1/Q2 games, though they do have one Q3 loss, which will hurt their final seed.

Looking at us, on the other hand, we’re currently 7-6 in Q1/Q2 games with no Q3/Q4 losses (though Maryland is on the edge).

Looking deeper at the numbers, we have just 3 Q1 wins, which hurts. Wisconsin has 6. Duke has 5. San Diego St has 5.

So we’re seeded right about where we should be at the moment.

The line between a 3 seed and a 4 seed is thin, we just have to start winning Q1/Q2 games to close out the season and we have a good shot at a 3 seed.
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I’ll give you San Diego St but duke has 2 quad 2 loses and a quad 3. Always felt the losses should hold more weight but clearly that’s not the case. As of right now IL only has 1 Q2 loss. I just need to not put as much weight on the bad losses I guess. My thinking was also with the caveat that Maryland moved to a Q2 since that is the case right now.
 
#89      

Illini231

I
Illini231
abchew2 said:
I’ll give you San Diego St but duke has 2 quad 2 loses and a quad 3. Always felt the losses should hold more weight but clearly that’s not the case. As of right now IL only has 1 Q2 loss. I just need to not put as much weight on the bad losses I guess. My thinking was also with the caveat that Maryland moved to a Q2 since that is the case right now.
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good wins should hold more weight than bad losses imo. you aren't generally playing teams that the bad losses are against in the tournament
 
#90      

WeWillWhen

WeWillWhen
WeWillWhen
It’s time to put up (win) or shut up. Six or seven wins down the stretch moves the Illini up to a three seed. Four or less wins, look out below. I’m optimistic, but it all comes down to taking care of business, starting this afternoon.
 
#91      

eas23

E
eas23
If you don't understand why a team is seeded where it is, the answer is almost always Q1 wins.
 
#92      

Navy_illini

N
Navy_illini
Illini231 said:
it's such a dumb system that a 1 point win today is theoretically better for our resume than a 10 point win
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Or if you lose in ot it is viewed as losing by 20. Looking at metrics help a little in tracking it

Also playing a team without their star shouldn’t count as much. For example NW without Berry is a different team. If you played them prior to him being out should be viewed differently
 
#93      

danielb927

danielb927
Orange Krush Class of 2013
Rochester, MN
danielb927
Interesting observation from this season: even though the Big Ten is probably not the best conference in hoops this year, it does seem to have the "best worst team". In other words, the worst team in the B1G (probably Michigan, maybe Indiana or Penn State) is better than the worst team in every other conference.

- West Virginia and Oklahoma State are worse in the Big XII (best conference)
- Georgetown and DePaul are atrocious in the Big East (2nd best)
- Vandy, Mizzou, and Arkansas (surprisingly) are all worse in the SEC, which is on par with the Big Ten this season
 
#97      

illinifan1987

illinifan1987
illinifan1987
pruman91 said:
Wow.........Seth Davis having good things to say about the Illini...............is it a blue moon or a lunar eclipse ??.......
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Glow Blue Moon GIF by dualvoidanima
 
#98      

danielb927

danielb927
Orange Krush Class of 2013
Rochester, MN
danielb927
Calling it now - Illinois finishes strong to climb up to a 3 seed, but draws 6 seed Oklahoma (feat. former Loyola Chicago coach Porter Moser) as the likely 2nd round matchup. The selection committee once again denies that storylines are considered, but with Loyola not in the tournament, Moser dials up Sister Jean to see if she's up for one more trip...
 
#99      

FeelYourPaign

FeelYourPaign
So Cal
FeelYourPaign
danielb927 said:
Calling it now - Illinois finishes strong to climb up to a 3 seed, but draws 6 seed Oklahoma (feat. former Loyola Chicago coach Porter Moser) as the likely 2nd round matchup. The selection committee once again denies that storylines are considered, but with Loyola not in the tournament, Moser dials up Sister Jean to see if she's up for one more trip...
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Lol, that was amusing, so thank you
 
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