Bracketology

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#176      

Piotyr

P
Piotyr
Update from the committee room:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1768273293520326674

Thoughts:
- Got to believe Illinois is one of those 23 teams set for the at-large field at this stage.
- Keep in mind there are just 36 at large spots, so while 23 seems low it's potentially the majority if auto bids go haywire.
- They seeded the 1 line, but it's not locked in stone at this point, there are still fluctuations, they're just starting to build the bracket.
- 14 AQs so far:
--- Stetson (ASUN)
--- Montana State (Big Sky)
--- Longwood (Big South)
--- Charleston (CAA)
--- Oakland (Horizon)
--- Drake (MVC)
--- Wagner (NEC)
--- Morehead State (OVC)
--- Samford (Southern)
--- McNeese (Southland)
--- South Dakota State (Summit)
--- James Madison (Sun Belt)
--- Saint Mary's (WCC)
- Saint Mary's and Drake (and James Madison I suppose) being in AQ spots means they won't take at-large spots, so the 23 spots in the field do not include those.
- Educated guesses on the 23 teams:
--- Obviously for sure: Purdue, Houston, UConn, Tennessee, North Carolina, Arizona
--- Almost positive: Marquette, Creighton, Iowa State, Baylor, Illinois, Duke, Kentucky, Alabama
--- Most Likely: BYU, Kansas, Auburn,
--- Pick your favorite six of: San Diego State (they were in the original top 16 list), Gonzaga (I find this likely because their season is done, no further games to affect their standing), Texas (same as Gonzaga), Nevada, Boise State, Texas Tech, South Carolina, Wisconsin

David also clarified after someone asked if this is a normal spot for the committee to be in at this point:
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1768285890408067226
 
#177      

21ChampaignSt

21ChampaignSt
21ChampaignSt
Piotyr said:
Update from the committee room:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1768273293520326674

Thoughts:
- Got to believe Illinois is one of those 23 teams set for the at-large field at this stage.
- Keep in mind there are just 36 at large spots, so while 23 seems low it's potentially the majority if auto bids go haywire.
- They seeded the 1 line, but it's not locked in stone at this point, there are still fluctuations, they're just starting to build the bracket.
- 14 AQs so far:
--- Stetson (ASUN)
--- Montana State (Big Sky)
--- Longwood (Big South)
--- Charleston (CAA)
--- Oakland (Horizon)
--- Drake (MVC)
--- Wagner (NEC)
--- Morehead State (OVC)
--- Samford (Southern)
--- McNeese (Southland)
--- South Dakota State (Summit)
--- James Madison (Sun Belt)
--- Saint Mary's (WCC)
- Saint Mary's and Drake (and James Madison I suppose) being in AQ spots means they won't take at-large spots, so the 23 spots in the field do not include those.
- Educated guesses on the 23 teams:
--- Obviously for sure: Purdue, Houston, UConn, Tennessee, North Carolina, Arizona
--- Almost positive: Marquette, Creighton, Iowa State, Baylor, Illinois, Duke, Kentucky, Alabama
--- Most Likely: BYU, Kansas, Auburn,
--- Pick your favorite six of: San Diego State (they were in the original top 16 list), Gonzaga (I find this likely because their season is done, no further games to affect their standing), Texas (same as Gonzaga), Nevada, Boise State, Texas Tech, South Carolina, Wisconsin

David also clarified after someone asked if this is a normal spot for the committee to be in at this point:
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1768285890408067226
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"Every. Game. Matters. Friday, Saturday, Sunday."

Whoa. I'm not sure if I believe this. But it's a pretty strong statement.
 
#179      

Piotyr

P
Piotyr
Oh, could also throw Clemson in as a possible set at large at this point too for similar reasons to Gonzaga and Texas.
 
#180      

ChiefGritty

ChiefGritty
Chicago, IL
ChiefGritty
Iloveorangekoolaid said:
It was more in response to teams on the cut line(bubble). Still think we have a chance to play up to a 3 seed though.
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There's a 3 up for grabs with the Kansas situation I suspect. If Duke blows it against NC State today it might be two.

Kentucky and Bama perhaps on a collision course for it on Saturday, we're in the mix too.
 
#183      

Piotyr

P
Piotyr
At this stage, I feel pretty confident in saying the top 3 1 seeds are locked in (in some order) as Purdue, Houston, UConn, and even if all 3 lose their first round tournament game, they'll be one of the top 3 one seeds. Currently, the order should be Purdue 1 (#1 NET, #1 strength of record, #1 resume, #1 WAB), Houston 2 (#1 ELO, #2 everything else), UConn 3 (#4 NET, #3 everything else).

After that, the next 3 teams are set in stone in some order: Tennessee, Arizona, North Carolina. I'd personally give the current last 1 seed nod to Tennessee (metrics #5 across the board) over Arizona (#3 NET, #11 resume, #10 ELO, #7 WAB, #11 Strength of Record) or North Carolina (#4 ELO, #4 SOR, #4 WAB, #7 NET, #9 resume), but they will be the 4-5-6 on the seed line, even if they all lose their first round game.

After that, things get a little closer for the next 10-12 teams, and conference tourney results will affect positioning a little more.
 
#184      

theNewGuy

theNewGuy
Dallas, TX
theNewGuy
IMO Baylor, Duke, Illinois, Kentucky, Alabama, and Auburn are all fighting for three 3-seed. Kansas may be but I think that loss last night made a 4 seed their ceiling?
 
#185      

Illini2010-11

I
Sugar Grove
Illini2010-11
ChiefGritty said:
I suspect Baylor's fine, but it couldn't hurt.

There are a bunch of teams that could fly up the charts with a run to the SEC title. BYU or SDSU too, maybe Utah State.

This is always a fun week. Let's make some noise!
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You obviously have not seen the scoreboard in Kansas City. BYU is getting plastered right now by 23 points approaching the half vs Texas Tech.
 
#188      

Fighter of the Nightman

Fighter of the Nightman
Chicago, IL
Fighter of the Nightman
21ChampaignSt said:
"Every. Game. Matters. Friday, Saturday, Sunday."

Whoa. I'm not sure if I believe this. But it's a pretty strong statement.
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I have always been a firm believer that "the BTT matters" - how you could come to the conclusion that our last two regular season games are essentially important but two neutral site Q1/Q2 games on Friday and Saturday don't move the needle is totally beyond me - but I too am skeptical about the Sunday part. The BTT championship game will end less than an hour before the Selection Show. The best they could do is hold a spot. For example, if Maryland is somehow playing on Sunday, the Committee will identify the "last place" team in the field and swap them for Maryland if the Terps win the championship game ... but I don't think they logistically have time to swap a #3 with a #4 seed based on Sunday's outcome. Which is why GETTING to Sunday is so important!
 
#190      

Illini2010-11

I
Sugar Grove
Illini2010-11
aaeismacgychel said:
I'm particularly amused by the fact that that sentence immediately follows "selections of the final teams in the tournament typically conclude late saturday night"
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To be fair, there are only 5 games on Sunday, and it is not very common to have a bid thief among the teams playing for the Ivy League (one bid league), A-10 (maybe depending on year), SEC (rare), AAC (maybe depending on year), and B1G (rare). So it would be logical to make the statement that the teams selected typically conclude on Saturday night. I think the general statement tries to leave open the thought that Sunday games matter for seeding purposes, though many are skeptical to that claim.
 
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#191      

Piotyr

P
Piotyr
Fighter of the Nightman said:
I have always been a firm believer that "the BTT matters" - how you could come to the conclusion that our last two regular season games are essentially important but two neutral site Q1/Q2 games on Friday and Saturday don't move the needle is totally beyond me - but I too am skeptical about the Sunday part. The BTT championship game will end less than an hour before the Selection Show. The best they could do is hold a spot. For example, if Maryland is somehow playing on Sunday, the Committee will identify the "last place" team in the field and swap them for Maryland if the Terps win the championship game ... but I don't think they logistically have time to swap a #3 with a #4 seed based on Sunday's outcome. Which is why GETTING to Sunday is so important!
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Similarly to how it's done when a B1G team that isn't at large is playing in the championship game, the committee can effectively have two brackets ready to go so either result is taken into account before the game is completed, and the bracket is ready.

For example, if Purdue and Illinois play Sunday in the final, the committee could be ready with one bracket with Purdue as #1 overall and Illinois as a 3 seed, and one bracket with Purdue as the second 1 seed with Illinois as the last 2 seed. Then, when the game completes, the committee submits the resultant bracket, no extra work necessary after the game.
 
#192      

21ChampaignSt

21ChampaignSt
21ChampaignSt
Piotyr said:
Similarly to how it's done when a B1G team that isn't at large is playing in the championship game, the committee can effectively have two brackets ready to go so either result is taken into account before the game is completed, and the bracket is ready.

For example, if Purdue and Illinois play Sunday in the final, the committee could be ready with one bracket with Purdue as #1 overall and Illinois as a 3 seed, and one bracket with Purdue as the second 1 seed with Illinois as the last 2 seed. Then, when the game completes, the committee submits the resultant bracket, no extra work necessary after the game.
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This is what I think/hope they would do. But there seems to be a lot of debate on whether or not this is even logistically possible. My mostly uninformed opinion is that there must be a way to do it but I can appreciate that it's a complex problem and may be easier said than done.
 
#193      

ChiefGritty

ChiefGritty
Chicago, IL
ChiefGritty
Piotyr said:
For example, if Purdue and Illinois play Sunday in the final, the committee could be ready with one bracket with Purdue as #1 overall and Illinois as a 3 seed, and one bracket with Purdue as the second 1 seed with Illinois as the last 2 seed. Then, when the game completes, the committee submits the resultant bracket, no extra work necessary after the game.
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They COULD do that, but it's a matter of public record that they haven't and don't.

If you do that to play around with one seed line, essentially that means you're making two brackets every year. It's always two good teams in the BTT final and seed lines are always close.

This really isn't that big of a deal. One game shouldn't and doesn't change a resume that sharply.
 
#194      

FreshlySqueezed

FreshlySqueezed
FreshlySqueezed
ChiefGritty said:
They COULD do that, but it's a matter of public record that they haven't and don't.

If you do that to play around with one seed line, essentially that means you're making two brackets every year. It's always two good teams in the BTT final and seed lines are always close.

This really isn't that big of a deal. One game shouldn't and doesn't change a resume that sharply.
Click to expand...

The seed lines are not always that close. Clemson just got destroyed yesterday and didn't drop a seed line.
 
#196      

21ChampaignSt

21ChampaignSt
21ChampaignSt
ChiefGritty said:
They COULD do that, but it's a matter of public record that they haven't and don't.

If you do that to play around with one seed line, essentially that means you're making two brackets every year. It's always two good teams in the BTT final and seed lines are always close.

This really isn't that big of a deal. One game shouldn't and doesn't change a resume that sharply.
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If we had beat Purdue last week, would that change how you view our resume? It's absolutely the type of game that could move a team up a seed line. And like I said before, it isn't only an Illinois problem. There's collateral damage that extends to other teams in the bracket.

If we were to beat PU this week, we'd likely have the resume of a 3 seed. But because they (probably) ignore the Sunday game, in this scenario, we'd be a 4 seed. Which not only means that Illinois would have to play a 1 seed sooner and have a tougher path to get there, but also everyone in our part of the bracket is given a tougher path than they should have because they're essentially having to play a 3 seed when they should be playing a 4.

And sure, teams are mis-seeded every year. But we're not talking about the committee judging a team's resume differently than we think they should. We're talking about the committee making a decision based on incomplete information because they've elected to ignore some of the information available to them.
 
#197      

ChiefGritty

ChiefGritty
Chicago, IL
ChiefGritty
21ChampaignSt said:
We're talking about the committee making a decision based on incomplete information because they've elected to ignore some of the information available to them.
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The Big Ten is free to change the time of its title game. Like I said before, the lack of seeding benefit for one game is definitely a price the conference is willing to pay in order to get huge ratings as the CBS lead-in to the bracket reveal show.

It's funny, we argue about this every year, even though "the BTT final comes too late for seeding consideration" has been a well known and documented fact since time immemorial.
 
#198      

Fighter of the Nightman

Fighter of the Nightman
Chicago, IL
Fighter of the Nightman
As a reminder, these are our two potential games before Sunday in the BTT as far as they affect our resume. As a reminder, on a neutral court Quad 1 is #1-50, Quad 2 is #51-100, Quad 3 is #101-200 and Quad 4 is #201-353.

Friday - vs. #59 Iowa (Q2) or #55 Ohio State (Q2)
Saturday - vs. #38 Nebraska (Q1), #96 Indiana (Q2) or #86 Penn State (Q2)

I will echo others' thoughts that we are playing well, and I am not afraid of anyone. If we are fearing anyone in this conference besides Purdue, a Sweet Sixteen is a tall order ... and we'll maybe have to beat a Purdue to get beyond the Sweet Sixteen. So, bring 'em on! These are my thoughts:

Friday: While one of Iowa or OSU could theoretically move into the top 50 and become a Quad 1 opponent if they blow the other out tonight, I think a loss to us would likely drop them right back to being Quad 2. So, I'd rather play Iowa ... because it's fun to beat them, and it's good for the rivalry to have meaningful "postseason" games.

Saturday: Give me Nebraska, and DEFINITELY do not give us Indiana. A win vs. IU is bordering on Quad 3 and potentially worthless, while a loss could be disastrous. While it would be nice to get revenge vs. PSU in the form of a beatdown, I will take the Quad 1 opportunity vs. Nebraska. If we bring the defensive effort we had against Iowa to this postseason, it will be a very memorable run ... because we will score points.
 
#199      

FreshlySqueezed

FreshlySqueezed
FreshlySqueezed
ChiefGritty said:
The Big Ten is free to change the time of its title game. Like I said before, the lack of seeding benefit for one game is definitely a price the conference is willing to pay in order to get huge ratings as the CBS lead-in to the bracket reveal show.

It's funny, we argue about this every year, even though "the BTT final comes too late for seeding consideration" has been a well known and documented fact since time immemorial.
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Care to point me to where that is documented?

I'm very aware that is the assumption and that in 9 out of 10 years, at least, the BTT has no real impact on seeding or tournament bids.

The last thing I saw was a tweet from someone speaking to the committee saying that every. game. counts.

And we do know that the committee *does* make two brackets in the event that a Big Ten team in the tournament title game would not otherwise receive an at-large bid.
 
#200      

Illini2010-11

I
Sugar Grove
Illini2010-11
21ChampaignSt said:
If we had beat Purdue last week, would that change how you view our resume? It's absolutely the type of game that could move a team up a seed line. And like I said before, it isn't only an Illinois problem. There's collateral damage that extends to other teams in the bracket.

If we were to beat PU this week, we'd likely have the resume of a 3 seed. But because they (probably) ignore the Sunday game, in this scenario, we'd be a 4 seed. Which not only means that Illinois would have to play a 1 seed sooner and have a tougher path to get there, but also everyone in our part of the bracket is given a tougher path than they should have because they're essentially having to play a 3 seed when they should be playing a 4.

And sure, teams are mis-seeded every year. But we're not talking about the committee judging a team's resume differently than we think they should. We're talking about the committee making a decision based on incomplete information because they've elected to ignore some of the information available to them.
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Given how tourneys are shaping up, I think Illini will likely be 3 seed just getting to BTT final, especially if Friday and Saturday are both Quad 1 games (though odds are Friday would be Quad 2 game).
 
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