illiniswish09
- Northwest Suburbs
Imagine that was the final straw for Holtmann tonight
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Is it? This is technically his first BAD season…
But it IS a bad season.
They’ve been decent under his tenure, not great, but decent.
Is that enough to fire him?
Doesn't he have like a top ten class coming in next year? I think he will be back.
It is but he hasn't had many good seasons. After his first season it's been pretty middle of the pack for him in the conference and no second weekends in the tournament. Plus Buckeye fans are ready for him to leave.
Holtmann has to be on his way out, right? This isn't the first time his team has collapsed in the 2nd half of the season. He's never won the B1G, B1G tourney, or made it past the round of 32.
It's funny looking back at the Brad, Archie, and Holtmann hires. All were hired in the same off-season. Archie...gone. Holtmann....all but gone. IIRC, many predicted Daddy Brad to be the worst of the 3.
It's funny looking back at the Brad, Archie, and Holtmann hires. All were hired in the same off-season. Archie...gone. Holtmann....all but gone. IIRC, many predicted Daddy Brad to be the worst of the 3.
Daddy Brad is great and I love his passion. That being said I think Holtmann is there to stay. He's a good coach, good recruiter who has had to depend on freshmen this year. They had a good class in '22/23 and a good one next year. They've beaten us regularly until this year, and have been good (not great) for a number of years.
THE OSU is a football school and unless basketball craps the bed, I don't see them making any changes. He's a good young coach.
He has 3 top-50 recruits coming in next year, and another committed for 2024. Not sure I've seen a coach shown the door under those circumstances. Usually recruiting starts the decline, and a season or two later, if the coach can't win with what they have, and the buyout's been dropping, that's when they get canned.
AND…and Holtman IS a good young coach but he inherited a MUCH better situation than Underwood and Miller did.
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He just signed a fully guaranteed extension in August, through 2028. They would have to REALLY want to move on. They only had 3 players return from last year's squad. Firing him would be a serious over reaction for a coach who has never missed the tournament and never won fewer than 20 games. Those streaks may be on the line this year, but it's hardly a pattern.
I don't get many posters' fixation an achieving this artificial bar of making the Sweet 16, and the use of this as a measure of the quality of the coach. There are 358 Div. 1 men's teams, and only 16 pass this bar in a season. If we look back over 2010-2019, the following teams made the Sweet 16 more than twice in that 10 year span:
Michigan St. (7)
Wisconsin (6)
Florida (5)
Duke (5)
Kansas (5)
Arizona (4)
Oregon (4)
WVU (4)
Purdue (4)
Michigan (4)
Kentucky (4)
Baylor (4)
Xavier (4)
North Carolina (4)
tOSU (3)
Indiana (3)
Gonzaga (3)
Syracuse (3)
Marquette (3)
Florida St. (3)
Louisville (3)
Tennessee (2)
Texas Tech (2)
Virginia (2)
Butler (2)
UCONN (2)
San Diego St (2)
Florida St (2)
Texas A&M (2)
Miami, FL (2)
Notre Dame (2)
Oklahoma (2)
Wichita St (2)
These total 110 of the possible 160 Sweet Sixteen berths spread across 34 teams Over the ten years. With 358 teams over the ten years, that is 3,580 teams that had an opportunity (however small) to make the Sweet 16. While I didn't look at what coaches were where & when, this gives a pretty good snapshot of who's doing what over this 10 years span. So, if we make the assumption that no teams changed coaches(we know this is not correct, but are using it to control the discussion) that 50 other teams that had a single appearance (160-100=50), plus the teams with multiple appearances (34, or 0.9%) 84 teams have made a Sweet 16 appearance over this ten year span. 84/3,580=0.02234637, or 2.2%. Does this mean the other 97.8% of Div. 1 coaches are not good, or "elites as we like to say around here? Discuss.
Michigan St. (7)
Wisconsin (6)
Florida (5)
Duke (5)
Kansas (5)
Arizona (4)
Oregon (4)
WVU (4)
Purdue (4)
Michigan (4)
Kentucky (4)
Baylor (4)
Xavier (4)
North Carolina (4)
tOSU (3)
Indiana (3)
Gonzaga (3)
Syracuse (3)
Marquette (3)
Florida St. (3)
Louisville (3)
Tennessee (2)
Texas Tech (2)
Virginia (2)
Butler (2)
UCONN (2)
San Diego St (2)
Florida St (2)
Texas A&M (2)
Miami, FL (2)
Notre Dame (2)
Oklahoma (2)
Wichita St (2)
These total 110 of the possible 160 Sweet Sixteen berths spread across 34 teams Over the ten years. With 358 teams over the ten years, that is 3,580 teams that had an opportunity (however small) to make the Sweet 16. While I didn't look at what coaches were where & when, this gives a pretty good snapshot of who's doing what over this 10 years span. So, if we make the assumption that no teams changed coaches(we know this is not correct, but are using it to control the discussion) that 50 other teams that had a single appearance (160-100=50), plus the teams with multiple appearances (34, or 0.9%) 84 teams have made a Sweet 16 appearance over this ten year span. 84/3,580=0.02234637, or 2.2%. Does this mean the other 97.8% of Div. 1 coaches are not good, or "elites as we like to say around here? Discuss.
Sixth ranked class from what I read and on top of a really good one last year. He will get another year at least and likely two....but if not competing to win the B1G and a bid by then, he will be toast.
In my view, he has competed reasonably well for years in the B1G without the benefit of any great players other than E. J. L. who was playing out of position his entire career. He was a special talent, but one guy can't win it all and they needed 3 or 4 more like EJ. Seems like they have strength at every position on the roster now other than a proven big in the paint. But that will be good enough without a 7 footer if they can jell as a team. Holtman seems to be more successful than most coaches at getting his players to play with and understand purpose and how to use their skill advantages.
What most who think Holtman may be gone soon, you have to look at Nebraska and Minny to find the floor. At least Holtman's teams have competed this year and are not getting blown out night after night. That indicates that the young players understand they are playing for and building a future and doing it with kids that will be around for awhile....kind of like another rags to riches coach we might know.
Not sure exactly what your point is? That only the best teams make lots of Sweet 16s? Because that is precisely the point others are making. We want to be one of the best teams that is constantly making Sweet 16s and beyond. So we want a coach that can deliver that.
Wishful thinking...coming into this year he had 5 straight 20 win seasons at tOSU and finished in the top 5 of the conference 4 of 5 years. He is a very good coach who has given us fits - he's 5-4 against Brad in their respective tenures
I guess I'm poo pooing the bar a little, because winning championships (conference and tourney) are pretty important, but are dismissed by many who state they will take a sweet 16 appearance over winning a conference or tourney championship. Making it only to the Sweet 16 is not winning a championship, only winning the natty can outshine a conference or tourney championship in my little Illini mind. But that's just my take on it . . .
Bigtex
- DFW
Wait a second - The B1G isn't any good. How did they have the top 2 teams?
I don't care at all about the Conference Tournament. It's a couple of days where guys will sit with any injury and rest for the real tournament can be prioritized.
When I look at a coach, I look at Conference regular season titles and tournament success. Final 4s is setting the bar way too high unless you are looking at Hall of Fame coaches. Making the tournament is too low, so Sweet 16, being able to make that second weekend of the tournament, seems to make the most sense to me.
Regular season titles show how well a coach can go through the grind and win. Making Sweet 16s shows how good a coach is at scouting your opponent and quickly getting your team in a position to win. Bad breaks will always happen, opponents will have crazy games, refs will blow calls that's why even the best teams don't get there every year. But consistently getting to the second weekend is the sign of a good program.
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Regional vs. national discussion. No one outside of the Big Ten gives a crap who wins the regular season or conference tournament. I don't even have any idea how many regular season or tournament titles Izzo has at MSU. But I know he has a decent amount of NCAA tournament success.
Disagree. There was just a discussion here this week about Calipari and his lack of SEC titles vs. Self and his Big 12 titles. And I don't think anyone thinks much of historical sweet sixteen appearances either.
Some smarter mathematician than me can do the formulas, but there is an expected return / likelihood of achievement thing for me. Of course national championships are the best, but we are zero for 55 in my lifetime. Doesn't mean you stop striving for those, but to me conference championships matter. My rough and open-to-debate order is something like this:
National championship
Final Four
Big Ten regular season champ
Big Ten tournament champ
Elite 8 / Sweet 16 / second weekend
So because some people on THIS board discussed specifically Calipari's lack of SEC titles and compared them to Bill Self's utter dominance, that means something? Also, someone had to look up how many SEC titles Cal has actually won.
How many ACC titles did Coach K win vs. Roy Williams vs. Dean Smith? I have no freaking clue, nor do I care. Go one step further. How many ACC tournament titles did Coach K win compared to Roy? I care even less.
And if you want to go likelihood, since 2000 we have 5 conference titles (shared or solo) and 2 Elite 8s. Give me an Elite 8 (with a chance to make a Final Four) over a conference championship any day.
With mega conferences and unbalanced schedules, conference titles don't mean what they used to.
My tone sounds worse than I mean it to, but honestly, I graduated in 2004 and not a single one of my friends cares a lick about conference titles. That goes for friends from programs outside of the Big Ten as well.
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I want Illinois to be one of the very best teams in the country and part of that is reaching the second week of the tournament (among other things), but expectations also need to be reasonable. Over the past 26 years, there are all of eight teams who have made the second week in 50% or more years, and 12 more who have made it in 25% or more years, and no team has made it in 75% of those years.
Zero is not the number you want here, but Holtmann has only had four chances and it's pretty easy to go 0-for-4 if you're looking at something that happens between 25% and 50% of the time. Doesn't help that arguably his best team (2020) never got a chance. Matta only got there in five of 13 tries, and I think most folks agree that he was pretty good at OSU.
I think OSU would be insane to fire Holtmann unless something weird is happening that we don't know about.
Pretty much anything other than a national title is an "artificial bar". I love winning conference championships, but I'd take an elite 8 any year over that. And right now, I'd take a S16 over that as our drought in that regard is awful.
When you make it to the 2nd weekend, you get talked about. Lots of attention put on those teams. I suppose there could come a time that I've put together so many 2nd place in conference with an elite 8/FF performances that I'd prefer a conference championship and a 2nd round exit. But I'm not there.
Our drought for the Sweet 16 is probably the longest of any notable program. I'm not going to apologize for thinking it's important.
When you make it to the 2nd weekend, you get talked about. Lots of attention put on those teams. I suppose there could come a time that I've put together so many 2nd place in conference with an elite 8/FF performances that I'd prefer a conference championship and a 2nd round exit. But I'm not there.
Our drought for the Sweet 16 is probably the longest of any notable program. I'm not going to apologize for thinking it's important.
Illinois basically brought back 3
- Coleman, RJ, Luke (injured entire season)
Massive roster turnover is normal now in college basketball.
We reloaded with 3 transfers (Dain, TSJ, MM) and 3 freshman (Jayden, Sencire, Skyy (gone).
Illinivek23
- Gurnee
4 freshmen - including Ty
For OSU, I'm not just talking about rotation players. Holtman had 3 return period. (Key, Sueing, and Brown)
Dain, Lieb, and Servin were here last season, though the former wasn't eligible/available, and the latter two had very minor roles. We had more guys in practice that knew what was going on.
We definitely have seen how challenging it can be to "re-load", at different points in the season. OSU's transfers have not been as impactful as ours, despite being highly regarded.
OSU has 7(!) freshmen this year, and a handful of top 50ish guys coming next year. I assume they will improve quickly, especially if Key sticks around.
Like I said, open to debate, and maybe I’m in the minority here. But I cannot fathom not giving a lick about conference titles. Maybe it’s a generational thing and speaks to the differences in college sports today. (I’m flashing over to posts in the realignment thread.)
My list above represented end or peak points, of course I’m hoping for a FF if in the moment we are in the Elite 8.
I’d also argue that in the world of mega conferences that those championships mean even more, not less.
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