Conference Realignment

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#101      

illinistephen

I
illinistephen
ChiefGritty said:
In any event, the lion's share of the money in this deal is those three big national network broadcasts every week. Apparently CBS is paying $350 million annually for just one football game a week which sounds like it's a weekly tradeoff with NBC for choice of game #2 vs game #3 (Fox getting game #1, though how can that be with it being at 9AM PT in a conference where USC is a top brand?
USC, Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, to a lesser extent Michigan State, Wisconsin, Iowa, UCLA football games, especially against each other or other big (read: SEC or ND) brands in the non-conference, broadcast on maximum household reach network television in regularly scheduled exclusive windows. That's ALL the money here, that's everything, that's why everything that's happening is happening. We're just along for the ride.
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Has anyone heard about where the #4 or #5 games would be? I've assumed all along that they would be on Fox too except during the MLB playoffs but haven't read anything stating this. Fox has always had 2 or 3 games on tv. With so many big brand teams I assume that the 4th best Big Ten game still has an advantage over the best PAC10 or Big12 game.

If UCLA or USC has to play at Illinois at 9AM PT, I'll take any advantage we can get :). They decided to join us after all. For when USC plays Ohio State, I'd assume that Fox takes it as their #1 choice and then has them play later in the day. Fox would then flex another Big Ten game in their inventory into the noon slot.
 
#102      

ChiefGritty

ChiefGritty
Chicago, IL
ChiefGritty
illinistephen said:
Has anyone heard about where the #4 or #5 games would be? I've assumed all along that they would be on Fox too except during the MLB playoffs but haven't read anything stating this. Fox has always had 2 or 3 games on tv. With so many big brand teams I assume that the 4th best Big Ten game still has an advantage over the best PAC10 or Big12 game.

If UCLA or USC has to play at Illinois at 9AM PT, I'll take any advantage we can get :). They decided to join us after all. For when USC plays Ohio State, I'd assume that Fox takes it as their #1 choice and then has them play later in the day. Fox would then flex another Big Ten game in their inventory into the noon slot.
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It starts to depend a little bit on what happens with the Big12/Pac12 I'd imagine.

Fox is a big partner for both of those leagues at present, and I can't imagine ESPN buying the wall-to-wall package for both of them, that's just too much content that even they don't have the room to meaningfully exploit. They can barely find enough ESPNU time for their ACC games as it is.

There will be four slots on Saturday for FS1 and probably a Thursday slot as well, we'll take some and maybe close to all of that. And then obviously the BTN exists to soak up the overflow.

But I would guess part of the deal that got us all the money was that each of the three networks get exclusive-to-broadcast windows, so there's not going to be a later Fox game or an earlier NBC game or something, for the Big Ten anyway. Everything besides those three will be on cable or streaming.

The streaming is gonna stink any way you slice it. What we're hoping for as fans (and especially Illini fans) is that it's minimal, that it's football-only, and that the BTN takes the rest of the lower-level inventory and there's nothing on FS2 or CBSSN. It would also be nice to kill the BTN+ nonsense for non-conference basketball, but they will keep it to squeeze every last penny.

The short answer to your question is probably more clarifying because it shows who really calls the shots here: it will be whatever Fox wants.
 
#103      

Ransom Stoddard

Ransom Stoddard
Ordained Dudeist Priest
Bloomington, IL
Ransom Stoddard
ChiefGritty said:
The streaming is gonna stink any way you slice it. What we're hoping for as fans (and especially Illini fans) is that it's minimal, that it's football-only, and that the BTN takes the rest of the lower-level inventory and there's nothing on FS2 or CBSSN. It would also be nice to kill the BTN+ nonsense for non-conference basketball, but they will keep it to squeeze every last penny.
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I don't get this take. I don't believe for a second that streaming is going to take games away from the traditional "networks" (who are themselves streaming the games on their platforms). In my mind, streaming increases the number of available games for those who want to pay to see them. If streamers like Apple or Hulu wind up getting rights to games I'd bet 3 of my beach houses, along with my mountain cabin, that they're going to get low-tier games because both the conferences and the networks want to maximize their cheddar production. I may be proven wrong at some point, but I'd be horribly shocked to see a Bama/UGA game as Hulu's Game of the Week anytime in the next 2 decades.

BTN+ is a bit of a different scenario in my mind, because that just seemed like the BTN trying to milk some extra bucks for what would probably have been low-rated basketball games that they didn't want to send a full broadcast team to cover.
 
#104      

ChiefGritty

ChiefGritty
Chicago, IL
ChiefGritty
Here's the Week 2 schedule (Week 1 has too much off-day weirdness) just to give a sense of the world before these deals kick in:

ABC: Ohio at Penn State 11AM (B1G), Tennessee at Pitt 2:30PM (ACC), USC at Stanford 6:30PM (Pac 12)
ESPN: South Carolina at Arkansas 11AM (SEC), Kentucky at Florida 6PM (SEC), Baylor at BYU 9:15PM (Big 12)
ESPN2: Mizzou at Kansas State 11AM (Big 12), Appalachian State at Texas A&M 2:30PM (SEC), Arizona State at Oklahoma State 6:30PM (Big 12)
ESPNU: North Carolina at Georgia State 11AM (Sun Belt), Virginia at Illinois 3PM (B1G), San Jose State at Auburn 6:30PM (SEC)

FOX: Alabama at Texas 11AM (Big 12), Washington State at Wisconsin 2:30PM (B1G)
FS1: Duke at Northwestern 11AM (B1G), Houston at Texas Tech 3PM (Big 12), Georgia Southern at Nebraska 6:30PM (B1G), Mississippi State at Arizona 10PM (Pac 12)

CBS: Colorado at Air Force 2:30PM (Mountain West? Why isn't this an SEC game?)
NBC: Marshall at Notre Dame 1:30PM (Notre Dame)

Everything else is on the conference-based networks.

Ransom Stoddard said:
I don't get this take. I don't believe for a second that streaming is going to take games away from the traditional "networks" (who are themselves streaming the games on their platforms). In my mind, streaming increases the number of available games for those who want to pay to see them. If streamers like Apple or Hulu wind up getting rights to games I'd bet 3 of my beach houses, along with my mountain cabin, that they're going to get low-tier games because both the conferences and the networks want to maximize their cheddar production. I may be proven wrong at some point, but I'd be horribly shocked to see a Bama/UGA game as Hulu's Game of the Week anytime in the next 2 decades.
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Oh yeah, I mean, we already know it will be the 4th best game of the week at the absolute most, Michigan/OSU ain't going to Amazon Prime.

Again my totally uninformed guess is that they'll do one weekday game a week. Maybe FS1 on Thursday and then Peacock on Friday.

But even if it's stealing a game from BTN, I have BTN, I don't have Apple Plus or Peacock. And I'm a city-dwelling millennial who at least knows what "Apple Plus" or "Peacock" means and knows how to acquire them. To the local fans that matter, putting games on streaming is going to put a road block between lots of people and the game.
 
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#105      

Scoregasm

S
Scoregasm
ChiefGritty said:
Here's the Week 2 schedule (Week 1 has too much off-day weirdness) just to give a sense of the world before these deals kick in:

ABC: Ohio at Penn State 11AM (B1G), Tennessee at Pitt 2:30PM (ACC), USC at Stanford 6:30PM (Pac 12)
ESPN: South Carolina at Arkansas 11AM (SEC), Kentucky at Florida 6PM (SEC), Baylor at BYU 9:15PM (Big 12)
ESPN2: Mizzou at Kansas State 11AM (Big 12), Appalachian State at Texas A&M 2:30PM (SEC), Arizona State at Oklahoma State 6:30PM (Big 12)
ESPNU: North Carolina at Georgia State 11AM (Sun Belt), Virginia at Illinois 3PM (B1G), San Jose State at Auburn 6:30PM (SEC)

FOX: Alabama at Texas 11AM (Big 12), Washington State at Wisconsin 2:30PM (B1G)
FS1: Duke at Northwestern 11AM (B1G), Houston at Texas Tech 3PM (Big 12), Georgia Southern at Nebraska 6:30PM (B1G), Mississippi State at Arizona 10PM (Pac 12)

CBS: Colorado at Air Force 2:30PM (Mountain West? Why isn't this an SEC game?)
NBC: Marshall at Notre Dame 1:30PM (Notre Dame)

Everything else is on the conference-based networks.


Oh yeah, I mean, we already know it will be the 4th best game of the week at the absolute most, Michigan/OSU ain't going to Amazon Prime.

Again my totally uninformed guess is that they'll do one weekday game a week. Maybe FS1 on Thursday and then Peacock on Friday.

But even if it's stealing a game from BTN, I have BTN, I don't have Apple Plus or Peacock. And I'm a city-dwelling millennial who at least knows what "Apple Plus" or "Peacock" means and knows how to acquire them. To the local fans that matter, putting games on streaming is going to put a road block between lots of people and the game.
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Yeah, I'm not getting Peacock or apple + for a few Illinois football games.
 
#107      

…INI

…
…INI
Mr. Tibbs said:
ND is going to see what the B1G ends up getting with this new contract. They will then see what they can get on their own. They then will know what the "cost" is to be independent and can then decide if its worth it or not.

My guess is , in the end, they join up
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Yes. Help me. What am I missing here? NBC will have the Saturday 7pm prime time slot with BIG. If ND wants a relationship with NBC as an independent then that leaves the 3:30 slot and noon slot for them with NBC which will compete directly with the other BIG partners CBS and FOX during those times. CBS and FOX will already compete the ESPN/ABC during those times. How could CBS and FOX allow their other BIG network partner (NBC) to compete with popular ND games for the 3:30 and noon slots?

It seems the only way FOX and CBS can effectively collaborate with NBC and ND is if ND games are also available to broadcast on all 3 networks for one of the 3 time slots as a member of the BIG. ND games would be slotted based on the ranking that week and I expect ND games would get ranked highly each week if they are playing a BIG schedule. Maybe ND gets prioritized for the NBC prime time slot to help preserve the NBC relationship.
 
#109      

ohioillini77

O
ohioillini77
Calvin said:
ESPN will go with the money. They will denigrate the BIG if they're not part of it, and promote whatever properties they wind up signing instead. Could be some cornhole on SportCenter if that's what they wind up with.
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Have cornwhole already on the Ocho.
 
#111      

Saturdaze

S
Saturdaze
ND and it’s supporters keep acting like the rest of the sports world can’t see them with their pants down. I’m baffled by it.

The numbers are out there, and to ND’s own admission they are $60 million per year in the hole to the BIG and SEC. We know, they know, that unless they raise the value of their deal with NBC from $15 million to $75 million that they will continue to suffer the disadvantage of being independent. They volunteered this proclamation.

The problem is that they have commited themselves to the ACC, and they’re biggest natural rivals are all in the BIG except for Stanford.

Their NBC games this year:
Marshall
Cal
BYU
Stanford
UNLV
Clemson
BC

They’ll play Clemson at home once every 6 or 7 years. Same with FSU, and Miami. It isn’t a valuable slate of games year in and year out, and ND ratings are evidence of this - 2019 was ND lowest ratings EVER, and 2021 was barely better.

I just don’t see NBC paying enough to keep ND independent when they are more valuable to NBC playing a full B1G regular season slate. It just doesn’t make sense for anyone to make that deal.
 
#112      

Saturdaze

S
Saturdaze
This article is a perfect example of the nonsensical hubris of ND supporters, and their purely presumptive valuation of the brand.

www.onefootdown.com

NBC and Big 10 deal could help keep Notre Dame Football independent

Money matters
www.onefootdown.com www.onefootdown.com

“If CBS is willing to pay $350 million for 13 games — how much is 7 Notre Dame games worth? The Irish are still one of the biggest brands in all of sports, and with lead-in games on the horizon from nooner Big 10 matchups... there is a ton of worth there. Those 7 games could be worth half of CBS’s deal which would be $150 million — double of what we thought was a number that would keep Notre Dame independent.”

Here are the viewership numbers for the CBS and ND games.
www.sportsmediawatch.com

College Football TV Ratings

College football TV ratings for the 2023 regular season, bowls, College Football Playoff and National Championship.
www.sportsmediawatch.com www.sportsmediawatch.com

Notre Dame on NBC = 14.9M total viewers = 2.1M per game
CBS = 82.5M total viewers = 5.9M per game = 6.8M per game excluding the novelty Air Force vs Navy game

Assuming a CBS viewer has similar value to an NBC viewer that puts a ND deal worth $59M - $67M depending on how the armed forces game is factored - not the $150M the author was presuming.

At first glance that valuation is surprisingly, or not, close to what ND is asking for to stay independent. This might seem like a slam dunk deal then, but that assumes NBC values ND independence as much as ND does.

ND‘s NBC ACC games averaged 1.9M per game, and comparing them to the ND/Wisconsin game that aired on Fox which had 5.4M viewers makes it clear the greatest potential for viewership is ND playing a B10 slate.

This is why I find it irrational when Swarbrick or the ND faithful act as if NBC has mutual interest in preserving their independence following their inevitable deal with the B10. NBC is going to want ND in the B10, and the best way for them to make that a reality is to offer a discounted take it or leave it deal to ND.
 
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#113      

ChiefGritty

ChiefGritty
Chicago, IL
ChiefGritty
It's truly sickening that this discussion is making me appreciate Notre Dame's position, but like, I think you're all missing the forest for the trees here.

They just don't want to join a conference. It's sort of a silly thing to be holding out on all this time, there's risk and financial downside involved for them, they have the perfect, frictionless opportunity to make the jump with the Big Ten but they just...don't want to. There's not really anything more to it than that.

And on some level it's nice and refreshing that they're refusing to let TV power, cold business logic and the vulgar display of money force them into something they don't want to do. I wish Jim Delany (or his constituents) had shown similar backbone before it was too late.
 
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#114      

Joel Goodson

Joel Goodson
respect my decision™
Joel Goodson
ND has a problem: it's fanbase. More specifically, it's strong preference for staying independent. Used to be unwavering, not so much anymore. I think Swarbrick and their AD would bite the (golden) bullet right now, if not for the fanbase. The die hards will never be convinced, but if the money gap is big enough (and I think it will be), ND will join.
 
#115      

wma500

wma500
wma500
ChiefGritty said:
It's truly sickening that this discussion is making me appreciate Notre Dame's position, but like, I think you're all missing the forest for the trees here.

They just don't want to join a conference. It's sort of a silly thing to be holding out on all this time, there's risk and financial downside involved for them, they have the perfect, frictionless opportunity to make the jump with the Big Ten but they just...don't want to. There's not really anything more to it than that.

And on some level it's nice and refreshing that they're refusing to let TV power, cold business logic and the vulgar display of money force them into something they don't want to do. I wish Jim Delany (or his constituents) had shown similar backbone before it was too late.
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This. Independence isn't for everyone.

ND has stated on multiple occasions that it values independence in football, as long as it has 1) access to the playoffs and 2) a home for it's Olympic sports. ND is super tight with the governance of the CFP board of managers and governance. President Jenkins is on the Board of Managers, and AD Swarbrick is on the Management Committee (along w/ heavyweights Sankey, Warren, etc.). By all accounts, Swarbrick and Sankey are tight as well. They have a cozy, influential seat at the table, and as long as that group stays tight, ND's gonna have the access it desires. Will that all change at some point? Sure, it's possible, but don't look for that to happen anytime soon.
 
#116      

Saturdaze

S
Saturdaze
ChiefGritty said:
It's truly sickening that this discussion is making me appreciate Notre Dame's position, but like, I think you're all missing the forest for the trees here.

They just don't want to join a conference. It's sort of a silly thing to be holding out on all this time, there's risk and financial downside involved for them, they have the perfect, frictionless opportunity to make the jump with the Big Ten but they just...don't want to. There's not really anything more to it than that.

And on some level it's nice and refreshing that they're refusing to let TV power, cold business logic and the vulgar display of money force them into something they don't want to do. I wish Jim Delany (or his constituents) had shown similar backbone before it was too late.
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This is where you are arguing on a faulty premise - the only conference they can join is the ACC. They do not have a “frictionless opportunity to make the jump with the Big Ten”. That is a false premise.

They signed a 25 year grant of rights agreement with the ACC that lasts until 2036 which they are bound by. You can suppose, for the sake of your own argument, that ND can easily dispose of that agreement if they were so inclined, but you’re just wrong. How will ND do that? Find me one single article that explains the mechanism for doing so. There are plenty of articles that make the same supposition as you, and they are all unsupported. People thought Texas and OU could leave the B12 early, and that was incorrect as well.

What do you expect ND to publicly say in this situation? They’re not going to admit the truth that they are at the mercy of the ACC.
 
#117      

ChiefGritty

ChiefGritty
Chicago, IL
ChiefGritty
Saturdaze said:
This is where you are arguing on a faulty premise - the only conference they can join is the ACC. They do not have a “frictionless opportunity to make the jump with the Big Ten”. That is a false premise.

They signed a 25 year grant of rights agreement with the ACC that lasts until 2036 which they are bound by.
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Fair, I admittedly keep forgetting that.

Now, they have NOT granted the rights to their home football games, which as we've seen is where all the money is. Plus granting the rights to broadcast the games is not the same thing as locking them into actual membership of that conference. In theory ND could join the Big Ten, and all of their basketball rights would still be owned by ESPN.

But the mess trying to untangle that would cause is certainly enough to prevent jumping to the Big Ten if, as is crystal clear, that's something they're already looking for an excuse not to do.
 
#118      

wma500

wma500
wma500
Saturdaze said:
This is where you are arguing on a faulty premise - the only conference they can join is the ACC. They do not have a “frictionless opportunity to make the jump with the Big Ten”. That is a false premise.

They signed a 25 year grant of rights agreement with the ACC that lasts until 2036 which they are bound by. You can suppose, for the sake of your own argument, that ND can easily dispose of that agreement if they were so inclined, but you’re just wrong. How will ND do that? Find me one single article that explains the mechanism for doing so. There are plenty of articles that make the same supposition as you, and they are all unsupported. People thought Texas and OU could leave the B12 early, and that was incorrect as well.

What do you expect ND to publicly say in this situation? They’re not going to admit the truth that they are at the mercy of the ACC.
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You might find this thread useful and informative, on ND and ACC GoR

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1546495066239287303

Notable takeaways:

- they can exit their ACC agreement, for a fee (not surprising a contract would have a buyout provision)

- ND's contract with the ACC looks essentially like everyone else in the league: An exit fee (3x annual revenue) and a GoR - but only for non-football sports. ND's ACC revenue for 2019-20 (pre-COVID) was $10.8M, while full ACC schools were $32.3M.

- It's tough to get a firm number on what the total cost might be -- lots of details not known -- but my best estimate based on publicly available data would be between $55M-$112M to depart in 2024.
 
#119      

TriangleIL

T
TriangleIL
The risk as I see it for ND is they no longer can schedule historic opponents. If I'm the B1G, my ultimatum is join now, or your brand suffers through scheduling atrophy. As was shown above, a lot of their schedule isn't appealing. Remove the traditional powerhouses and it gets a whole lot worse. Lastly, CFP may look a lot different soon with only 2 seats at the table (SEC and B1G). There will be more shake up, it doesn't just stop here.

Frankly, I don't know that I want ND to join the more we discuss it. They don't bring much value other than their fans pride.
 
#122      

champaignchris

C
champaignchris
The doomsday scenario for ND is if the Big 10 and SEC decide to withdraw from the rest of college football. The two major conferences add a few more schools, enter an agreement to play some cross-conference regular season games, and then have their champs play each other at the end of the year. Basically become the AL and NL of college football, leaving the rest of D1 to be the International League and American Association.

This very much seems to be the direction we’re heading, and if it does continue in that direction, there’s absolutely no way Notre Dame will allow itself to be on the outside looking in. They’re basically playing a weird combination of Russian roulette and musical chairs, where their goal seems to be being the absolute last school to get a chair, but to definitely wind up with a chair.

The ACC grant of rights agreement gives them some time, but maybe not as much as they’d hope. Every year, the cost to Miami/UNC/Fla St/UVA/Clemson/etc. of not being in the Big 10/SEC goes up, while the price of getting out of the GOR goes down. It’s just a matter of time for one of those schools reach the tipping point and then the whole ACC will come crashing down. Nobody will want to be the ACC version of Kansas or Washington.

The danger ND faces is them convincing themselves, “This isn’t the time to grab a chair,” and then have the music stop playing.
 
#125      

Saturdaze

S
Saturdaze
Mr. Tibbs said:
I really dont believe a word Swarbrick says, just as I didnt ever believe a word Ron Guenther said
two birds of a feather
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Considering he was the AD who “signed” the ACC grant of rights, and tied their hands until 2036 I don’t expect him to say anything negative about the current situation.
 
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