No way to know, but we do know they cheated by doing illegal scouting on a big scale.
Let's compare it to Lance Armstrong, who won the Tour de France a record seven times. Armstrong was caught doping in an era when “everybody did it”, so did this really affect the TDF results all that dramatically? No way to know, but also irrelevant. Eventually he and everybody who was caught breaking doping rules had their wins vacated. Nobody questions the fairness of the punishment. The record books now show him with zero TDF wins.
I’d suggest a Harbaugh suspension is a reasonable immediate response. Longer term, after all is investigated, a suitable punishment would be to identify all games Michigan scouted in person, then vacate all wins against those teams. And do the same for any other team caught doing illegal scouting. Fair and objective, right?
Ah, Zero Tolerance. It sounds lovely in theory. In practice it presents all kinds of problems.
Let's start by noting a big distinction between doping and scouting: doping is inherently dangerous -- especially to athletes themselves. You are messing with your own hormones. There's increased risk of cancer and damage to reproductive organs. The rule against doping isn't in place to save money, it's in place to keep cyclists from hurting themselves for an edge. Scouting opponents -- even away from your campus -- doesn't cause cancer or shrink anyone's nuts.
But okay, ZERO TOLERANCE -- YOU CHEAT, YOU LOSE -- ABSOLUTE PURITY -- NO EXCEPTIONS! Are you sure you're ready to live under that rule yourself? Did you ever read through the NCAA rules? There sure are a lot of them! And are you sure there isn't someone on Bret Bielema's staff who isn't cheating? Positive? Cuz major college football employs a lot of people and all we need is one guy cutting corners and you can forfeit entire seasons. And the more you win, the more likely someone's gonna start sniffing around and if they find anything...GOTCHA!
Right now the story is going around that a whole lot of Big Ten schools were colluding on signals. Collusion is also against the rules. ZERO TOLERANCE! Maybe we wind up vacating everyone's wins, because YOU CHEAT, YOU LOSE! That would be one way to achieve ABSOLUTE PURITY! Maybe everyone should be suspended, NO EXCEPTIONS! When everything is grounds for forfeit, it's the only way to be sure. Isn't this fun!
Or maybe we dial the outrage meter back down from an eleven to a ten, and allow ourselves to apply a little perspective.