Illini Basketball 2016-2017

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#276      
Home:
IOWA - W
MD - L
MICH - W
MSU - L
MINN - W
NU - W
OSU - L
PSU - W
WIS - L

Away:
IND - L
IOWA - W
MD - L
MICH - L
NEB - L
NU - W
PSU - L
PUR - L
RUT - W

8-10, hope I'm wrong. The home record of 5-4 really tears at me. Should be no worse than 7-2 every year at home.
 
#278      

riffraff

Peoria
Not sure if it would be a good thing for Malcolm to average such high ppg. It would probably indicate too much dependency on his scoring. Hopefully, we can get more balanced scoring form the rest of the roster.
If he could average 20ppg on a team with balanced scoring of 10-15ppg from the other starters, I won't complain.
 
#280      
Sean Harrington said that Mike Thorne was probably the third best big man in the conference.

That would be a nice surprise as he has never played one BT minute and is coming off injury and has fitness issues due to long layoff.

Not sure I agree. but I like Mike.
 
#281      

Deleted member 342779

D
Guest
That would be a nice surprise as he has never played one BT minute and is coming off injury and has fitness issues due to long layoff.

Not sure I agree. but I like Mike.

Actually, he came back and played 19-20 minutes against Indiana and had 10 and 8. That's why the Redshirt was in question. After seeing him play though 10 games or so last year...it's not a reach to think he'll be one of the better centers in the B1G.
 
#282      
That would be a nice surprise as he has never played one BT minute and is coming off injury and has fitness issues due to long layoff.

Not sure I agree. but I like Mike.

The Indiana game aside I see your point but the Mike doesn't have "fitness issues". He's a few lbs heavier than where he needs to be game-shape wise which is completely expected for someone his size
 
#283      

Deleted member 4723

D
Guest
Other than Hill and JCL we don't have anyone that would start in the Big Ten.

Pretty odd comment. By default there will be 3 others "starting in the Big Ten". Unless you feel we will be fielding the absolute worst team in the league I would have to take issue with you.
 
#284      
Other than Hill and JCL we don't have anyone that would start in the Big Ten.

Thorne would start for most BT teams. Black would start for at least half of them, IMO. Abrams would start for at least 3-4 others.
 
#285      

UofIChE06

Pittsburgh
Other than Hill and JCL we don't have anyone that would start in the Big Ten.

As others have pointed out this is absolutely incorrect. Thorne would start on all but a few teams, Black would start for at least a handful, Tracy would start for a couple, and Finke/Morgan may even start for a couple. There is no dearth of talent on this roster. The key will be putting it together in a manner that translates to wins. Should health hold up (no guarantee) they have 3 high level offensive threats, a bulldog leader, and a athletic rebounding machine. They will have three players in the starting line up that were at or near Top 50 status. That is not a lack of talent.
 
#286      
Plus there is a compounded effect from the ACL injury and the 2-year total inactivity from competitive basketball. I think Tracy will help, especially in leadership and intangibles, but I do not expect any miracles. I believe some of the expectations on this board are over-inflated.

I'm with you on this. I'm hoping one of our three options can give us decent play at PG. I'm just not too optimistic on any of the three. Crazy, but I think Lucas might be the most likely (and I don't think that's very likely).
 
#287      
I'm with you on this. I'm hoping one of our three options can give us decent play at PG. I'm just not too optimistic on any of the three. Crazy, but I think Lucas might be the most likely (and I don't think that's very likely).

The PG position is going to be interesting to watch play out this year. Tejon is going to have to get considerable tick (especially against the cupcakes) to get him prepared for the following year, regardless of how well he adapts to the college game. Who knows how well Tracy may play given his injury and time out of the game. He likely will improve the mental part of his game with his maturity, but he is also likely not to be as quick as he was. Until we can see him play, we won't know. I am sure a lot of you hope I am wrong, but odds are Tate is our #1 PG for next year. I am not as concerned about that as much as most. I think last year was not a good indicator of what Tate can do - he nearly ripped a finger off his shooting hand to start the season and had to come back before 100%, probably delaying its rehabilitation. Also, the team around him was decimated making his PG play more difficult. I think we see 18-20 minutes a game and a 3pt% in the mid-.20s. I think as a senior he plays much more aggressively. My only concern is Nunn leaving as this was a longtime teammate and one that he got out an ran with sometimes, at least his sophomore year. Nunn being gone may cause Tate to not be as comfortable on the floor as he might otherwise have been. Not sure if we will end the season next year happy or sad about our PG play, but it should be interesting to watch.
 
#288      
Here's a look at the PG depth charts for all 14 B1G teams. I've listed stats for each player from their most recent healthy season. For freshmen, I've listed the 247 composite ranking. These are ranked in order. I'm considering both talent and depth. It goes without saying that this is totally subjective (I know some will have MSU and Nebraska higher and PSU and Minnesota lower, for instance). Anyway, I hope this helps illustrate the B1G landscape a little better. At least we're not Iowa :thumb:



#3: Northwestern
Starter: Bryant McIntosh - JR - 13.8 ppg, 6.7 ast, 3.6 reb, 1.0 stl, .423 fg%, .366 3pt%
Primary Backup: Jordan Ash - SO - 1.5 ppg, 1.0 ast, 0.7 reb, 0.2 stl, .414 fg%, .267 3pt%
3rd String: Isiah Brown - FR - #237 overall; #43 PG, or Scottie Lindsay (JR)

LOL! See what I mean?
 
#289      
Black would start for at least half of them, IMO.

Black has not even established himself as a starter at Illinois so far in his career, and we have been a lower tier team. So, he has a long way to go before we can claim that he can be a starter for more than half of the teams in the B1G, let alone the upper echelon teams. I'd suggest he starts with establishing himself as a starter at Illinois first. :)
 
#290      

zpfled

Logan Square, Chicago
Black has not even established himself as a starter at Illinois so far in his career, and we have been a lower tier team. So, he has a long way to go before we can claim that he can be a starter for more than half of the teams in the B1G, let alone the upper echelon teams. I'd suggest he starts with establishing himself as a starter at Illinois first. :)

I'm high on Black, but you're 100% right:)
 
#291      
Black has not even established himself as a starter at Illinois so far in his career, and we have been a lower tier team. So, he has a long way to go before we can claim that he can be a starter for more than half of the teams in the B1G, let alone the upper echelon teams. I'd suggest he starts with establishing himself as a starter at Illinois first. :)

This sums up the team's prospects and explains why a lot of commentators are picking us to finish 10th/11th/12th. On this board, we know that Leron is a preternaturally gifted rebounder with an elite motor, but from the outside he looks like an early bust who failed to make a substantial impact as a freshman (outside of flagrant fouls and cheap shots) and has had nothing but injuries and legal trouble since.

In short, Leron isn't a safe bet. Neither is Thorne. We know that Thorne is a physical mismatch for every big man in the league, with his plus athleticism, NBA size, and nice motor. His type-1 diabetes limits his conditioning and makes it harder for him to recover from injuries. If you didn't actually watch Illinois last year in non-con (let's say your an OSU fan), you just know he's a big body who hasn't ever dominated, even at a lower level, and has never played much more than 20 mpg. He's also had two medical redshirts. If I saw 6'11, 270, limited minutes, and two medical redshirts sitting on an opposing team's roster, I wouldn't be scared. I'd assume the kid was an injury prone oaf who put up good rebounding numbers at Charlotte and in non-con last year because he's gigantic.

Because we have a close-up perspective on the Illini, we have a better sense of how solid the rotation of Black, Thorne, Finke, and Morgan could be at the 4/5. We know that Tracy's leadership is going to make a difference, there's good reason to believe Kipper Nichols is underrated, JCL could become a 1st team All-B1G guard...if you're just a fan or journalist looking at roster/record/stats, you'd have no reason to believe in this team. We know that a 12th place finish is possible, but about as likely as a 4th place finish. Ending up 5th or 6th is more than reasonable. The caveat is that every other fanbase feels the same way at this point. I'll bet even Rutgers is talking themselves into 6 conference wins and a 9th place finish.
 
#292      
We know that Thorne is a physical mismatch for every big man in the league, with his plus athleticism, NBA size, and nice motor.

Thorne has good size, not sure I would characterize him as athletic, much less a "plus" athlete. In fact, the team as a whole doesn't have too many guys that I would say are overly athletic for this level. Kipper sounds like he might be, but I have yet to see him play in a game. Malcolm's certainly improved his athleticism, but we've also seen him struggle against better athletes.
 
#294      
This sums up the team's prospects and explains why a lot of commentators are picking us to finish 10th/11th/12th. On this board, we know that Leron is a preternaturally gifted rebounder with an elite motor, but from the outside he looks like an early bust who failed to make a substantial impact as a freshman (outside of flagrant fouls and cheap shots) and has had nothing but injuries and legal trouble since.

In short, Leron isn't a safe bet. Neither is Thorne. We know that Thorne is a physical mismatch for every big man in the league, with his plus athleticism, NBA size, and nice motor. His type-1 diabetes limits his conditioning and makes it harder for him to recover from injuries. If you didn't actually watch Illinois last year in non-con (let's say your an OSU fan), you just know he's a big body who hasn't ever dominated, even at a lower level, and has never played much more than 20 mpg. He's also had two medical redshirts. If I saw 6'11, 270, limited minutes, and two medical redshirts sitting on an opposing team's roster, I wouldn't be scared. I'd assume the kid was an injury prone oaf who put up good rebounding numbers at Charlotte and in non-con last year because he's gigantic.

Because we have a close-up perspective on the Illini, we have a better sense of how solid the rotation of Black, Thorne, Finke, and Morgan could be at the 4/5. We know that Tracy's leadership is going to make a difference, there's good reason to believe Kipper Nichols is underrated, JCL could become a 1st team All-B1G guard...if you're just a fan or journalist looking at roster/record/stats, you'd have no reason to believe in this team. We know that a 12th place finish is possible, but about as likely as a 4th place finish. Ending up 5th or 6th is more than reasonable. The caveat is that every other fanbase feels the same way at this point. I'll bet even Rutgers is talking themselves into 6 conference wins and a 9th place finish.

I think you have your caveat right, this place will tend to over rate our chances. It is also easy to see why someone could pick us 10/11/12th, lose Nunn, only 1 incoming freshman plus Kipper who tends to get lost as a mid-season transfer. I would sum this upcoming year as we are likely to be the most improved team in the B1G next year, but largely because we left ourselves with the most room for improvement & had more bad luck last year than any team should expect. But along with this comes a lot of unknowns and variation. Abrams, Thorne, Black, Tejon are recovery/health concerns to varying degrees. We have a bunch of sophomores that we need to improve JCL, AJ, DJ to fill the gap left by Nunn. Finke and Black are both redshirt sophomores and we have yet to really see if Black made a jump after his freshman year. Personally, with everything considered I think making the NCAA is about right bar for expectation for this year and unfortunately I think the biggest factor in achieving the bar will be health and luck.
 
#295      
Thorne has good size, not sure I would characterize him as athletic, much less a "plus" athlete. In fact, the team as a whole doesn't have too many guys that I would say are overly athletic for this level. Kipper sounds like he might be, but I have yet to see him play in a game. Malcolm's certainly improved his athleticism, but we've also seen him struggle against better athletes.

Fair enough. I was impressed last year with Thorne's short area quickness and general mobility. I'd consider him a good athlete for his gigantic size (only because most guys pushing 7'0, 300 are either total stiffs or obvious lottery prospects - Thorne is rare in being neither). Positionally, sure, he's not exceptionally run-jump athletic.

I agree that we're not an athletic team in general. Thorne is not a plodder, but he's got limitations. Black, Hill, Abrams (pre-injuries), JCL, Tate, Jordan, and Lucas are all probably average athletes at this level. Finke might be slightly below average, especially in terms of lateral agility. Mav is a poor athlete, though he's put in a lot of work and has definitely improved. DJW and Kipper are probably our only plus athletes in a true positional sense, and there's a good chance they're both fringe rotation players this year.

What we do have is very good size from the 2 to the 5 and potentially very good shooting. Hopefully that adds up to a lot of wins.
 
#296      
What we do have is very good size from the 2 to the 5 and potentially very good shooting. Hopefully that adds up to a lot of wins.

Yep, I think we have versatility, some very skilled guys, good "motors" and hard workers. As has been the case almost every season, we're going to have to fit in a bunch of new parts, even if some of them are actually (very) old parts. All the pieces are there if we can stay healthy.
 
#297      

whovous

Washington, DC
This sums up the team's prospects and explains why a lot of commentators are picking us to finish 10th/11th/12th. On this board, we know that Leron is a preternaturally gifted rebounder with an elite motor, but from the outside he looks like an early bust who failed to make a substantial impact as a freshman (outside of flagrant fouls and cheap shots) and has had nothing but injuries and legal trouble since.

In short, Leron isn't a safe bet.

This whole summary is excellent. My opinion is not nearly as well-informed as yours, but I think we either see Black emerge as a very good player this year or else he becomes nearly invisible.
 
#298      
How is this controversial?! I'm still surprised that this conversation became so heated. I understand that the committee looks at overall resume but unless we are a completely different team in the early season, we should feel really good about making the tourney with 11 wins in our conference with this schedule. I don't think it's crazy to assume that a decent run in conference is usually preceded by decent wins during the non conference slate. Our non conference schedule is going to give us plenty of opportunities to earn quality wins too. One can maybe argue that we don't really know the quality of the teams we're going to play but that's rubbish, we have 5-6 teams in the top 25 of most preseason polls. It's not like people are completely clueless on our quality of competition.

We can also put it this way, knowing that Illinois would win 11 conference games, who would bet $1000 on Illinois also ending up in the dance? Who wouldn't make that bet? Most would, because it's a safe bet. It's a way too early season prediction, they should never be taken too seriously anyway.

agree 100%, Newman. I would bet the grand that 11-7 gets us in. Might I lose? Maybe, but I'd take the bet.
 
#300      

whovous

Washington, DC
agree 100%, Newman. I would bet the grand that 11-7 gets us in. Might I lose? Maybe, but I'd take the bet.

I am very conservative when it comes to betting. I'd want to know our preseason record before putting my money down. Would 11-7 have stamped our dance card last year? Probably not.
 
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