Illini Football 2023

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#229      

lstewart53x3

Scottsdale, Arizona
Full disclosure. I follow Illinois basketball way closer than the football team. I know they lost quite a bit from last year but realistically, what should we expect for a win total this year? 8 or 9. is 10 possible?
Advanced stats predict 6.6-6.9 wins depending on the service. Vegas has the O/U at 6.5.

So I’d say:

5 clearly underperforms expectations.
6 mildly underperforms expectations.
7 mildly outperforms expectations.
8 clearly outperforms expectations.
9 wildly outperforms expectations.
10. My brain can’t even go there.
 
#230      
Advanced stats predict 6.6-6.9 wins depending on the service. Vegas has the O/U at 6.5.

So I’d say:

5 clearly underperforms expectations.
6 mildly underperforms expectations.
7 mildly outperforms expectations.
8 clearly outperforms expectations.
9 wildly outperforms expectations.
10. My brain can’t even go there.
I think this is about fair. I see the games like this:

Very Disappointing if We Lose
vs. Toledo
vs. Florida Atlantic
vs. Indiana
vs. Northwestern

Missed Opportunity if We Lose
at Purdue
vs. Nebraska

Toss-Up
at Kansas

Great Accomplishment if We Win
vs. #19 Wisconsin (I'm pretty adamant they're overrated, and I hope there is a Homecoming boost!)
at Maryland
at Minnesota

Icing on the Cake if We Win
vs. #7 Penn State (though I think a win here matters more conceptually for this program)
at #25 Iowa

So, fewer than 6 wins really means we tripped up, either by dropping games we really should have won or never putting together a quality win. If we go 4-0 in the first group and can at least go 3-3 overall in the three middle categories, that is 7 wins and would I would consider "another good season." Taking 4 from that middle section OR stealing one of the biggies (vs. PSU or at Iowa), now you are replicating last year ... two seasons of 8 wins in a row is an AMAZING departure from where this program has been.

To win more than 8 in the regular season means we are improving on last year's "surprise season" after all that we lost ... time to build the statue! And while the "scary" thing here is that there really aren't more than 4 games where we will be clear favorites, there also isn't a SINGLE game even approaching at Michigan last year (and we held our own there!). There is such a wide range of outcomes I could see this season, but 10 wins really isn't that crazy ... and THAT is crazy!!
 
#231      
I think this is about fair. I see the games like this:

Very Disappointing if We Lose
vs. Toledo
vs. Florida Atlantic
vs. Indiana
vs. Northwestern

Missed Opportunity if We Lose
at Purdue
vs. Nebraska

Toss-Up
at Kansas

Great Accomplishment if We Win
vs. #19 Wisconsin (I'm pretty adamant they're overrated, and I hope there is a Homecoming boost!)
at Maryland
at Minnesota

Icing on the Cake if We Win
vs. #7 Penn State (though I think a win here matters more conceptually for this program)
at #25 Iowa

So, fewer than 6 wins really means we tripped up, either by dropping games we really should have won or never putting together a quality win. If we go 4-0 in the first group and can at least go 3-3 overall in the three middle categories, that is 7 wins and would I would consider "another good season." Taking 4 from that middle section OR stealing one of the biggies (vs. PSU or at Iowa), now you are replicating last year ... two seasons of 8 wins in a row is an AMAZING departure from where this program has been.

To win more than 8 in the regular season means we are improving on last year's "surprise season" after all that we lost ... time to build the statue! And while the "scary" thing here is that there really aren't more than 4 games where we will be clear favorites, there also isn't a SINGLE game even approaching at Michigan last year (and we held our own there!). There is such a wide range of outcomes I could see this season, but 10 wins really isn't that crazy ... and THAT is crazy!!
Good breakdown! Puts a lot in perspective when predicting our record!

I would think Iowa is more in the category down from there, but I can see it.
 
#232      
I think this is about fair. I see the games like this:

Very Disappointing if We Lose
vs. Toledo
vs. Florida Atlantic
vs. Indiana
vs. Northwestern

Missed Opportunity if We Lose
at Purdue
vs. Nebraska

Toss-Up
at Kansas

Great Accomplishment if We Win
vs. #19 Wisconsin (I'm pretty adamant they're overrated, and I hope there is a Homecoming boost!)
at Maryland
at Minnesota

Icing on the Cake if We Win
vs. #7 Penn State (though I think a win here matters more conceptually for this program)
at #25 Iowa

So, fewer than 6 wins really means we tripped up, either by dropping games we really should have won or never putting together a quality win. If we go 4-0 in the first group and can at least go 3-3 overall in the three middle categories, that is 7 wins and would I would consider "another good season." Taking 4 from that middle section OR stealing one of the biggies (vs. PSU or at Iowa), now you are replicating last year ... two seasons of 8 wins in a row is an AMAZING departure from where this program has been.

To win more than 8 in the regular season means we are improving on last year's "surprise season" after all that we lost ... time to build the statue! And while the "scary" thing here is that there really aren't more than 4 games where we will be clear favorites, there also isn't a SINGLE game even approaching at Michigan last year (and we held our own there!). There is such a wide range of outcomes I could see this season, but 10 wins really isn't that crazy ... and THAT is crazy!!
For me personally, I really need to see to believe the Iowa, Wisconsin, and Minnesota hype.

Starting with Minnesota, a lot of their optimism is based on the ceiling of their sophomore qb, who basically pissed his pants last year whenever he was pressured. Plus I have a difficult time believing they'll be better without Ibrahim, who seems to be a much bigger loss to them than even Chase was to us. Maybe they'll be good, but I need to see it to believe it. Call me skeptical.

Iowa is a team that we can go blow for blow with defensively. I still find it very difficult to trust their offense at all. This will all come down to turnovers and field position. This should be a tossup in the purest sense of the word in my opinion.

As for Wisconsin, maybe they'll be great, but they're going to an entirely new offense with an entirely new scheme with an entirely new coach, and a new transfer qb. And maybe their air raid sets the conference on fire. Of course their biggest issue last year was giving Mertz even the slightest bit of protection and their new qb will have even less? .aybe they'll play at that Top 20 rank, but I need to see it to believe it.

Really, Penn State on that list is the only team who we should be moderate dogs to this year, and quite frankly, I think we have a team specifically built in a way that can cause their offense a lot of problems.

I'm also higher on Nebraska, Toledo, and Kansas than you, and in fact I think @Kansas as an early season true road test with a dangerous and unique offense will probably be one of our toughest games. Using your same categories, I'd go with:

Very Disappointing if We Lose
vs. Florida Atlantic
vs. Indiana
vs. Northwestern

Missed Opportunity if We Lose
vs Toledo
at Purdue


Toss-Up
vs Nebraska
at Minnesota
at Iowa

Great Accomplishment if We Win
at Kansas
vs Wisconsin
at Maryland

Icing on the Cake if We Win
vs. #7 Penn State
 
#239      

redwingillini11

White and Sixth
North Aurora
Need to get over the Purdue and Maryland humps this year. I'm getting tired of losing to them.
I agree. Purdue we have to flip the script like we have with Northwestern this year. They are going to rebuild and become a very solid program, so now is our opportunity step in front of them and be big brother for the rest of the 2020s.

Maryland is really maddening how we cannot beat them since they have joined the conference. Luckily, they are being hyped up this year so if we beat them this year that should give us some serious respect amongst the middle tier of the conference.
 
#244      
First, I guess it depends what you mean by media. National? Big Ten? Local/Illini beat writers? Certainly on a national and even B1G level, it makes complete sense what they are concentrating upon. Illini hadn’t finished over .500 in regular season since 2007 and DeVito, Chase, and DW and company were huge reasons why they did last year and they are gone. For those writers, Illini need to prove last year wasn’t an aberration and we won’t sink back into mediocrity. And replenishing those positions successfully will go a long way to doing that.

I did see and mention the IW watch list snub. Randolph is getting good pub albeit most in tandem with Newton. But that’s to be expected. I have been a little surprised Jacas hasn’t gotten more press, though noticed The Athletic had him on some list. On a national and even B1G level media, I’m not surprised at all Bailey isn’t being mentioned. In fact I’d be shocked if he was especially now with the injury. Same for O-Line (should be a good unit but probably not standout enough to get national/B1G pub), though on local level they get mentioned fairly often. As for lack of mention of newcomers, the ‘23 class (both HS and transfers) is good for the Illini but wouldn’t warrant much publicity on the national/B1G level.

I get it — as fans we want to see our team and players garner plenty of positive media attention. But outside of local media, it’s not surprising that media is taking a more wait and see approach. Have to remember that including bowl game the Illini went 1-4 in their last 5 games. With DeVito, Chase and that secondary (I know there were injuries) that team couldn’t even avoid — record wise — sliding back to mediocrity before the season even ended. So when 3 strengths are gone, not surprising that is what media concentrates on for the upcoming season.
I agree completely. I used to hope for "media recognition" for my teams. But, I am also realistic regarding all the teams to be considered, plus history, we haven't yet earned the respect, etc. Your evaluation is spot on. I believe Illini fans have seen enough ups and more downs to recognize the difference with this leadership and the athletic department talent. So, many fans expected more love. Instead of being upset by the lack of "respect", I am looking forward to a team that this is going to surprise the country. I won't predict our record (because I'm old enough to have seen everything happen), but this will be a fomidable team for anybody in the country. Unless Luke Altmeyer is a total disaster. I don't expect that.
 
#245      
He chose the better opportunity at the time. Don't blame him a bit. Love that he's joined the staff to commence his career.

I had the pleasure of knowing his dad for a year, when I was a senior, an RA in Scott Hall, and HG lived on the 4th floor (during what I believe was his freshman year in '87-'88). Just a splendid young man, well-mannered and friendly. I had only one problem with him all year, in around March when I was on call one Saturday night (actually, early Sunday morning.) He and his guests (including a young man named Marcus Liberty who was visiting for the weekend) got a bit out of hand. When I showed up, half-asleep and less than pleased, he was sheepish and apologized. I still remember that.

Also was in my room later that spring one early afternoon when an assistant football coach showed up at my door with a couple and their son, a QB prospect whom he was recruiting (or, I suppose, already had recruited by then). My room looked out onto Memorial Stadium and the Hall Director had sent them up because they wanted to see what a room looked like (many players lived in the Six Pack back then) and she knew I was around. I wasn't paying attention to football at the time, as the program had slipped under White, was something like 3-7-1 the previous season, and we had a new HC. Anyway, the family was very nice, as was the kid. I remembered his name: Jason. Was surprised that he seemed a bit shorter than me (I was 5'10" back then.) I'd always thought QBs were around 6'4".

He went on to perform serviceably under center for us. I guess he really liked my room and its view ;)

My brushes with Illini gridiron greatness. :illinois: 16 days to the opening kickoff!
Great story. It's fun looking back. My 2 funny memories were: 1. being in the undergrad library with my future wife in '79-80 (I don't think I was ever in there on my own accord). We had season BB tickets since '76. I pointed out to her that Perry Range was "sitting over there" on the floor flipping through some books. When she looked over, he looked up and saw her staring/smiling at him, he looked down sheepishly and smiled. I thought that was cool. He was a kid and thought, "people know who I am?" Yet, humble. 2. I was delivering pizza for Willie's to one of the 6-pack, as I walked up to the lobby door to call the room, Derek Harper (his Freshman year) came walking up from the other direction and opened the door for me first. I said thanks, and that's it. I never bothered to indicate to him that I knew who he was with even something like, "Good game the other night", and he certainly didn't act like he expected it, just pleasant. I thought that was cool as well.
 
#248      

Dan

Admin
#249      
Lot of optimism in this thread. We lost 4 of our last 5 games and some key pieces on offense and defense. I'm still in wait and see mode. I have tickets for Penn State. We'll see then.
I get what you are saying, my man. While I definitely think we can lose to PSU and still have a phenomenal season that continues to build momentum for the program, it really is a GOLDEN opportunity for us. Win that one on Big Noon Kickoff in front of a crowd people are not used to seeing in Memorial Stadium, and we just might flip the final page of the script for the perception of Illini football!
 
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