The AP ranking is wonderful when it comes to selling the program to fans and recruits, but it doesn't matter to the selection committee. While we are 25 in the AP poll, we're 35 in the NET, one of the metrics used by the selection committee. 35 in the NET equates to a 9 seed.
The other metric the selection committee uses is who you beat. While we've done a great job amassing wins, our issue is that most of those wins are against minnows. In our non-conference schedule, out of our 11 games, we had one Quad 1 win at Missouri and one Quad 3 loss against Deleware (10-1 overall). From there, we had about the easiest conference schedule you could have hoped for. We only played Iowa, Ohio State, and Maryland once (the 2, 3, 4 in the conference). With that, we beat the heck out of the bottom of the conference. 9 out of our 10 conference wins have come against the bottom half of the conference (teams 8-14). Our only win in the top half of the conference is that huge one against Iowa. That game is buttressing our entire resume.
So right now, we are 35 in the Net with three Quad 1 wins (the third is against Nebraska away) and one Quad 3 loss. A 9 or a 10 seed is just about right. We do have a chance to bump it up a little bit. Nebraska at home would be a Quad 2 win. They're on a 4 game-losing streak and one of the last teams projected in the tournament. Take that and Rutgers and make a little noise in the B1G tournament and we could be around a 7 or 8 seed. I would guess that's the best we can hope for unless we win the B1G Tournament, amass several more Quad 1 wins doing it, and really force the selection committee to make a last-second decision on us (not something the selection loves to do, but it's not completely unheard of).
No matter what, this season has defied all reasonable expectations. Yes, if we are honest with ourselves, our schedule broke perfectly for us, but let's be real, this program desperately needed that added bit of luck, and the ladies have done an incredible job taking advantage of it. As frustrating as the men's season has been (though I have hopes it's going to end with a run!), this women's season has kept my spirits up. I'm so thankful to finally have a team that's worth giving a d*mn about and that's appointment viewing.