St. Louis Cardinals 2022

#726      
Thanks for the insight Pruman. Please don't take this as being argumentative. There is nothing certain when it comes to the mlb draft especially pitchers. My question is- is it better to take a probable #3 pitcher who gets to the majors in a couple of years or take a younger player with more potential that gets there 3 years later but "might" develop into a #1 or 2 SP? As the article says, St Lou says the former. I can't say they are wrong. They certainly know more than I ever will. Thing is, we have been disappointed so many times by players who don't live up to their potential.


Not a one of these pitchers has exceeded expectations for a full year. IE: been a #1 or 2 starter. All have been the equivalent of a #4 starter over a full season.
Griffin Roberts hasn't pitched above AA. And that was only 4 innings.
Michael McGreevy gets a pass in this discussion.
Zack Thompson comments are based more on his minor league record.
Dakota Hudson has been injured but you can't be considered a #5 starter if you are on the IL.

In their overall careers Marco Gonzales and Luke Weaver are no better than a #3 starter and they may be closer to a #4 with a few solid games sprinkled in.
I don't think results would necessarily be better drafting more HS arms in the first round and I think the key is to mix in plenty of long term projects in with these college guys as well. I think the fact that the 1st round college arms we draft have been mid to late rotation guys is more a function of continually drafting in the 20s than it is of drafting college pitchers. Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer were both college pitchers. We have drafted some HS pitchers in the first round as well. The last five are Jake Woodford (2015 - #39), Jack Flaherty (2014 - #34), Rob Kaminsky (2013 - #28), Tyrell Jenkins (2010 - #50), and Shelby Miller (2009 - #19). None of those picks has been a home run, though the Flaherty one gets a pass because his issues have been injury related. He clearly does have the stuff if he can stay healthy.
 
#728      
I don't think results would necessarily be better drafting more HS arms in the first round and I think the key is to mix in plenty of long term projects in with these college guys as well. I think the fact that the 1st round college arms we draft have been mid to late rotation guys is more a function of continually drafting in the 20s than it is of drafting college pitchers.
I agree with all of this. Typically the best are the ones who are taken in the top 10 slots of the first round irrespective of HS or college prospects. Then every once in a while you reel in a Pujols in the 13th round. :cool:
 
#733      
Ok, so lots of chatter on Cardinals as a team interested in Juan Soto, and as the team with the most prospects and young MLB talent that could go into a deal. It's probably going to take one of Jordan Walker or Masyn Winn (possibly both), one of TON/Bader/Carlson (likely Carlson unless you're giving up both Walker and Winn), and probably 2 or 3 of Liberatore, Donovan, Yepez, Burleson, Tink Hence, Graceffo, Baez, Gorman, McGreevey, Pallante, Zack Thompson. Do you do it?

Me personally, if Soto agrees to an extension it's an easy yes. And he's the only guy in the world I'd give a package half that good for. If no extension, I'm probably out, because this would absolutely deplete the farm.

Will it happen? It'd take a pretty big commitment to a higher payroll to extend Soto so I'm skeptical. But, if there was ever a way to guarantee revenue, a getting the next Pujols/Trout type guy for the next decade plus would do it.
 
#735      

IlliniwekKDR

Colorado Springs, CO
Alright St. Louis fans, the Cardinals are rumored to be top landing spot for Juan Soto and on the ice, Matthew Tkachuk is going to become available from Calgary. It's assumed that he would love to come play for his hometown. If you had to choose getting only one of those two, who would it be? I'm picking Tkachuk. Much more manageable salary negotiation as long as the salary cap is figured out and I still dream of getting him and Brady in a Blues uniform playing together.

Having Soto would be an amazing upgrade, but as mentioned, it's not a guarantee he signs long term, it's going to take a Mississippi River barge full of money to get it done, and we will be giving up a lot of young inexpensive talent.
 
#736      

pruman91

Paducah, Ky
Alright St. Louis fans, the Cardinals are rumored to be top landing spot for Juan Soto and on the ice, Matthew Tkachuk is going to become available from Calgary. It's assumed that he would love to come play for his hometown. If you had to choose getting only one of those two, who would it be? I'm picking Tkachuk. Much more manageable salary negotiation as long as the salary cap is figured out and I still dream of getting him and Brady in a Blues uniform playing together.

Having Soto would be an amazing upgrade, but as mentioned, it's not a guarantee he signs long term, it's going to take a Mississippi River barge full of money to get it done, and we will be giving up a lot of young inexpensive talent.
Pass on Soto....................too much to give up to make trade and no guarantee he resigns.....I know Cardinals wouldn't make trade without consent of him signing extension.....reminds of Albert's situation and amount of $$$$$....again , I'd pass on him..........

On Tkachuk , it would depend on a lot of factors , but I would explore it harder than the Soto deal............All depends on salary cap and if Armstrong wants to give up Kryou and others ( Tarasenko ? ) but MT would be what the Blues need to infuse goal scoring after losing Perron........

JMHO
 
#737      

socalini

So Cali
Alright St. Louis fans, the Cardinals are rumored to be top landing spot for Juan Soto and on the ice, Matthew Tkachuk is going to become available from Calgary. It's assumed that he would love to come play for his hometown. If you had to choose getting only one of those two, who would it be? I'm picking Tkachuk. Much more manageable salary negotiation as long as the salary cap is figured out and I still dream of getting him and Brady in a Blues uniform playing together.

Having Soto would be an amazing upgrade, but as mentioned, it's not a guarantee he signs long term, it's going to take a Mississippi River barge full of money to get it done, and we will be giving up a lot of young inexpensive talent.
I've seen enough of Soto grabbing his junk. Don't want it to become a a part of every Cards game.
 
#739      
Pass on Soto....................too much to give up to make trade and no guarantee he resigns.....I know Cardinals wouldn't make trade without consent of him signing extension.....reminds of Albert's situation and amount of $$$$$....again , I'd pass on him..........
Huge difference between Soto and Pujols FWIW. Pujols was already 31 when he became a free agent. Soto is 23. At 23 he already has 118 home runs and has won a batting title. He has a career OPS+ of 160 in his 5th year at an age most prospects are just breaking into the league. This isn't like signing the last 10 years of Pujols's career, it's like signing the first 10.
No thanks on Soto. Still remember a trade with Miami for an outfielder for a high level prospect pitcher.
You can't compare Ozuna and Soto. Jordan Walker is amazing. Great prospect. The odds of him being as good as Soto are like a billion to one. Soto was in his 2nd season and received MVP votes when he was 20. Jordan Walker is currently 20 and in AA.
 
#740      

pruman91

Paducah, Ky
Huge difference between Soto and Pujols FWIW. Pujols was already 31 when he became a free agent. Soto is 23. At 23 he already has 118 home runs and has won a batting title. He has a career OPS+ of 160 in his 5th year at an age most prospects are just breaking into the league. This isn't like signing the last 10 years of Pujols's career, it's like signing the first 10.

You can't compare Ozuna and Soto. Jordan Walker is amazing. Great prospect. The odds of him being as good as Soto are like a billion to one. Soto was in his 2nd season and received MVP votes when he was 20. Jordan Walker is currently 20 and in AA.
I can compare anything I want , thank you very much...........................I say no thanks on Soto.....................jmho...............................I don't post to have a debate on stats ..........he turned down $ 400 million.........nuff said for me , not even talking about bankrupting our farm system.....

NO THANKS..............
 
#741      
I can compare anything I want , thank you very much...........................I say no thanks on Soto.....................jmho...............................I don't post to have a debate on stats ..........he turned down $ 400 million.........nuff said for me , not even talking about bankrupting our farm system.....

NO THANKS..............
Just having a discussion here, no need to take it personally. We disagree, that's fine.

Just for context, that contract he turned down would've made him the 20th highest paid player in the MLB on an annual basis. It's actually less per year than what Arenado is getting. It's not ridiculous that someone who's on track to end up a top 10 batter all-time would turn that down, particularly to play for a franchise that's not competing anytime soon.

Just FWIW here are Soto's best age based comps from baseball reference:

20220722_133829.jpg
 
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#742      

Ryllini

Lombard
Ok, so lots of chatter on Cardinals as a team interested in Juan Soto, and as the team with the most prospects and young MLB talent that could go into a deal. It's probably going to take one of Jordan Walker or Masyn Winn (possibly both), one of TON/Bader/Carlson (likely Carlson unless you're giving up both Walker and Winn), and probably 2 or 3 of Liberatore, Donovan, Yepez, Burleson, Tink Hence, Graceffo, Baez, Gorman, McGreevey, Pallante, Zack Thompson. Do you do it?

Me personally, if Soto agrees to an extension it's an easy yes. And he's the only guy in the world I'd give a package half that good for. If no extension, I'm probably out, because this would absolutely deplete the farm.

Will it happen? It'd take a pretty big commitment to a higher payroll to extend Soto so I'm skeptical. But, if there was ever a way to guarantee revenue, a getting the next Pujols/Trout type guy for the next decade plus would do it.
For me, I’d be fine giving Bader or TON, I don’t want to part with Carlson or Donavan. Walker and Winn would be tough, if we could keep one, I’d say keep Winn and move Tommy back to second. And the infield would be set for the next 3-4 years. The rest of the guys on the list wouldn’t kill me, some of the talent is tough to
Stomach giving up, but these are players finding their way still, Soto seems to be the way.
I would imagine is TON, Bader, or Dejong is in the deal, the Nats would be flipping them on short order after that.
 
#743      
For me, I’d be fine giving Bader or TON, I don’t want to part with Carlson or Donavan. Walker and Winn would be tough, if we could keep one, I’d say keep Winn and move Tommy back to second. And the infield would be set for the next 3-4 years. The rest of the guys on the list wouldn’t kill me, some of the talent is tough to
Stomach giving up, but these are players finding their way still, Soto seems to be the way.
I would imagine is TON, Bader, or Dejong is in the deal, the Nats would be flipping them on short order after that.
Yeah I think clearly the org would rather keep Carlson but I think Nats want him and I really don't think it's a deal breaker. For as promising as Carlson is, he's actually the same age as Soto. I'd also love to throw DeJong into the deal (heck let's toss Dickerson in too!) but don't see that happening. I actually think the Nats would keep TON or Bader. Those guys aren't expensive and would start immediately.

The talk is that the Nats want to unload Patrick Corbin and would take less to be rid of most or all of his contract. He's been atrocious but who knows, maybe the Cardinal magic can resurrect him from the dead and solve our pitching problem too?

I get the squeamishness about giving up top prospects but I just remind myself that Colby Rasmusnwas the #3 prospect in all of baseball at one time and Shelby Miller was #8. Two of the most highly touted prospects/rookies at the beginning of last season were Christian Pache and Jerrad Kelenic. Both those guys are back in the minors now. Prospects are always a question mark. I think this tweet sums it up:

 
#744      

Ryllini

Lombard
Yeah I think clearly the org would rather keep Carlson but I think Nats want him and I really don't think it's a deal breaker. For as promising as Carlson is, he's actually the same age as Soto. I'd also love to throw DeJong into the deal (heck let's toss Dickerson in too!) but don't see that happening. I actually think the Nats would keep TON or Bader. Those guys aren't expensive and would start immediately.

The talk is that the Nats want to unload Patrick Corbin and would take less to be rid of most or all of his contract. He's been atrocious but who knows, maybe the Cardinal magic can resurrect him from the dead and solve our pitching problem too?

I get the squeamishness about giving up top prospects but I just remind myself that Colby Rasmusnwas the #3 prospect in all of baseball at one time and Shelby Miller was #8. Two of the most highly touted prospects/rookies at the beginning of last season were Christian Pache and Jerrad Kelenic. Both those guys are back in the minors now. Prospects are always a question mark. I think this tweet sums it up:

This is a tricky spot for our Birds. I think we are coming into a great window of being a legitimate world series contender starting next year and a window that could be open for a while and that isn't even with Soto. Soto is a player that can push them over the threshold, but if we give up too many now, next year or in two years ready players, we will be in a trick bag
 
#745      
This is a tricky spot for our Birds. I think we are coming into a great window of being a legitimate world series contender starting next year and a window that could be open for a while and that isn't even with Soto. Soto is a player that can push them over the threshold, but if we give up too many now, next year or in two years ready players, we will be in a trick bag
Don't disagree but I think it can be done without long term harm. Here's what I'm kinda thinking:

Winn, Walker, Carlson, Liberatore, Burleson. This is one of the more extreme proposals I've seen and it's likely Cards would give up less in a real deal.

Soto is a direct replacement for Carlson in right. Burleson was already blocked due to MLB OF depth anyway. Instead of Walker replacing Goldy at 1st in two years, it's going to be Yepez, a FA pick up, or Goldy extension. Instead of Winn at short we keep a middle infield of Edman, Gorman and Donovan. We still have potential future SP in the farm in the form of Hjerpe, McGreevy, Graceffo and Hence.
 
#746      
Don't disagree but I think it can be done without long term harm. Here's what I'm kinda thinking:

Winn, Walker, Carlson, Liberatore, Burleson. This is one of the more extreme proposals I've seen and it's likely Cards would give up less in a real deal.

Soto is a direct replacement for Carlson in right. Burleson was already blocked due to MLB OF depth anyway. Instead of Walker replacing Goldy at 1st in two years, it's going to be Yepez, a FA pick up, or Goldy extension. Instead of Winn at short we keep a middle infield of Edman, Gorman and Donovan. We still have potential future SP in the farm in the form of Hjerpe, McGreevy, Graceffo and Hence.

St Lou gave up Mateo Gil, Tony Locey, Jake Sommers, Austin Gomber and Elehuris Montero for Arenado. I would think Washington would want to spread the prospects out instead of having them all reach the majors at roughly the same time. It's more difficult to budget and maintain control.

A list with Delvin Pérez, Jhon Torres, Liberatore, Edman and Carlson would make more sense. Although I would like to keep Liberatore and offer them another young pitcher.
 
#747      
St Lou gave up Mateo Gil, Tony Locey, Jake Sommers, Austin Gomber and Elehuris Montero for Arenado. I would think Washington would want to spread the prospects out instead of having them all reach the majors at roughly the same time. It's more difficult to budget and maintain control.

A list with Delvin Pérez, Jhon Torres, Liberatore, Edman and Carlson would make more sense. Although I would like to keep Liberatore and offer them another young pitcher.
Everything I've read says the Nats want a mix of top prospects and young MLB ready guys. I don't think they want Delvin Perez and Jhon Torres type guys. Arenado was different because Rockies just wanted to shed salary plus Arenado was going to opt our after a year if they didn't trade him. I think the Nats want to compete soonish, and they want this trade to help them get there.